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Thread: Math/Odds Experts

  1. #1

    Math/Odds Experts

    Debate going on around here whether a team (Ravens) that has #4 seed in NFL playoffs locked up, tries to go for long shot to get to 3 seed by playing all players a lot of whom are hurt. The problem with that is NE would have to lose at home, and then we would have to win 2 games in playoffs, while BOTh the number 1 and 2 seeds lost so we could have home field for AFCC game. That is the only way it would be beneficial to have 3 vs 4, if we get to AFCC game and could host it.

    So anyway, NE is -650 this week vs Miami. Oh and Miami has nothing to play for(out of playoffs), while NE does.

    As far as #3 seeds hosting conference championship game I have to look that up, I am sure it has happened before but maybe only a couple times.

    Off the top of my head I said it is probably less than 1 or 2% taking all those factors into consideration, while others are saying it is way higher. So if anyone can figure it out or even ball park it help me out.

  2. #2
    Found more stuff....

    Heres a look at the seeds of the 44 teams to reach the Super Bowl since 1990, when the NFL went to a 12-team playoff format:

    No. 1 seeds 21 reached Super Bowl, 9 won

    No. 2 seeds 12 reached Super Bowl, 6 won

    No. 3 seeds 2 reached Super Bowl, 1 won

    No. 4 seeds 6 reached Super Bowl, 3 won

    No. 5 seeds 1 reached Super Bowl, 1 won

    No. 6 seeds 2 reached Super Bowl, 2 won

  3. #3
    2007 Indy as #3 seed hosted NE #4

    2009 Arizona as #4 seed hosted Philly as #6

    Only 2 times the 3/4 has hosted conference championship game, 1990-2011 (22 years)

    So 1/44 chance for 3 seed to host Conf game is about 2.27%

    Then add in 13% chance of NE losing at -650

    And finally 42% chance of Ravens winning at +140


    What does it add up to??
    Last edited by NaturalBornHustler; 12-25-2012 at 09:53 AM.

  4. #4
    All Sorts of Sports gut's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NaturalBornHustler View Post
    Debate going on around here whether a team (Ravens) that has #4 seed in NFL playoffs locked up, tries to go for long shot to get to 3 seed by playing all players a lot of whom are hurt. The problem with that is NE would have to lose at home, and then we would have to win 2 games in playoffs, while BOTh the number 1 and 2 seeds lost so we could have home field for AFCC game. That is the only way it would be beneficial to have 3 vs 4, if we get to AFCC game and could host it.

    So anyway, NE is -650 this week vs Miami. Oh and Miami has nothing to play for(out of playoffs), while NE does.

    As far as #3 seeds hosting conference championship game I have to look that up, I am sure it has happened before but maybe only a couple times.

    Off the top of my head I said it is probably less than 1 or 2% taking all those factors into consideration, while others are saying it is way higher. So if anyone can figure it out or even ball park it help me out.
    I think that's one of the biggest fallacies in football. The majority of guys on the Dolphins roster are playing for their stats to bump up their market value, or for job security, or both. Every year we see underdogs come through in the final week. I recall my Vikings in 2003, who controlled their own destiny and just had to beat the lowly 3-12 Cardinals to get in as a wild card. 18-17 AZ victory.

    Interesting sidenote, but the 2003 Vikings are one of the very few teams who started 6-0 and then missed the playoffs.

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by gut View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by NaturalBornHustler View Post
    Debate going on around here whether a team (Ravens) that has #4 seed in NFL playoffs locked up, tries to go for long shot to get to 3 seed by playing all players a lot of whom are hurt. The problem with that is NE would have to lose at home, and then we would have to win 2 games in playoffs, while BOTh the number 1 and 2 seeds lost so we could have home field for AFCC game. That is the only way it would be beneficial to have 3 vs 4, if we get to AFCC game and could host it.

    So anyway, NE is -650 this week vs Miami. Oh and Miami has nothing to play for(out of playoffs), while NE does.

    As far as #3 seeds hosting conference championship game I have to look that up, I am sure it has happened before but maybe only a couple times.

    Off the top of my head I said it is probably less than 1 or 2% taking all those factors into consideration, while others are saying it is way higher. So if anyone can figure it out or even ball park it help me out.
    I think that's one of the biggest fallacies in football. The majority of guys on the Dolphins roster are playing for their stats to bump up their market value, or for job security, or both. Every year we see underdogs come through in the final week. I recall my Vikings in 2003, who controlled their own destiny and just had to beat the lowly 3-12 Cardinals to get in as a wild card. 18-17 AZ victory.

    Interesting sidenote, but the 2003 Vikings are one of the very few teams who started 6-0 and then missed the playoffs.
    So how much are you putting on the 10 pt dogs in Miami to win outright in NE?

  6. #6
    Diamond chinamaniac's Avatar
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    Not sure of math but IMO rest your players and use this week as a bye. Rest more crucial than having a shot to host a title game

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by chinamaniac View Post
    Not sure of math but IMO rest your players and use this week as a bye. Rest more crucial than having a shot to host a title game
    Obv but there are some idiots who say that we need to keep "momentum" going.

    Harbaugh is further fanning the flames with his typical coachspeak claiming "we are going to try to win the game!", after he said on Sunday that anyone nicked up will rest. That is like 15 players, literally. I know he has to say that but anyone who believes it is a fool. The reason why we aren't fighting for a bye is because damn near every player on defense went down the last month.

    Hell we might not be able to win fully healthy much less all banged up, Bengals are on a roll right now and their defense is playing lights out.

    Yeah let's send Ray Rice out there to try to win for nothing (for pride! for the love of the game!) and destroy our SB chances even if a minor tweak to an ankle happens. Makes no fucking sense.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by NaturalBornHustler View Post
    2007 Indy as #3 seed hosted NE #4

    2009 Arizona as #4 seed hosted Philly as #6

    Only 2 times the 3/4 has hosted conference championship game, 1990-2011 (22 years)

    So 1/44 chance for 3 seed to host Conf game is about 2.27%

    Then add in 13% chance of NE losing at -650

    And finally 42% chance of Ravens winning at +140


    What does it add up to??

    I did not read your original post, but if you are looking at the parlay of multiple events occurirng, you just multiply the probabilities together to get the probability of them all occurring (.0227 * .13 * .42 will give you the probability of all of these things happening)

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Corrigan View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by NaturalBornHustler View Post
    2007 Indy as #3 seed hosted NE #4

    2009 Arizona as #4 seed hosted Philly as #6

    Only 2 times the 3/4 has hosted conference championship game, 1990-2011 (22 years)

    So 1/44 chance for 3 seed to host Conf game is about 2.27%

    Then add in 13% chance of NE losing at -650

    And finally 42% chance of Ravens winning at +140


    What does it add up to??

    I did not read your original post, but if you are looking at the parlay of multiple events occurirng, you just multiply the probabilities together to get the probability of them all occurring (.0227 * .13 * .42 will give you the probability of all of these things happening)
    Finally! That is what I thought but didn't know if it worked for non similar numbers.

    That comes out to .0001239

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