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Thread: What are the odds of 18-1-1. Wormhole

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    Platinum cmoney's Avatar
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    What are the odds of 18-1-1. Wormhole

    Just curious what the odds are to pick 18 wins, 1 push and 1 loss out of 20 picks.

    Just curious what odds though are for wormhole picks.

    Smart math people please let me know

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    How Could You? WillieMcFML's Avatar
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    send me a bottle of scotch and i'll tell you the answer

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    Platinum cmoney's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WillieMcFML View Post
    send me a bottle of scotch and i'll tell you the answer
    np. but shouldn't someone be sending me scotch at this point?

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    How Could You? WillieMcFML's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmoney View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by WillieMcFML View Post
    send me a bottle of scotch and i'll tell you the answer
    np. but shouldn't someone be sending me scotch at this point?
    yebsite the benevolent

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    Quote Originally Posted by cmoney View Post
    Just curious what the odds are to pick 18 wins, 1 push and 1 loss out of 20 picks.

    Just curious what odds though are for wormhole picks.

    Smart math people please let me know
    That depends on what your true winrate is. For the sake of simplicity, let's assume it's exactly 50%. In that case it's the same as going 10-10 or 3-17 or any other combination of outcomes over 20 games. About 1 in 1,048,576

    Since I assume you're a winning bettor, the odds are better than 1 in a million, but still highly improbable.

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    Platinum cmoney's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SrslySirius View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by cmoney View Post
    Just curious what the odds are to pick 18 wins, 1 push and 1 loss out of 20 picks.

    Just curious what odds though are for wormhole picks.

    Smart math people please let me know
    That depends on what your true winrate is. For the sake of simplicity, let's assume it's exactly 50%. In that case it's the same as going 10-10 or 3-17 or any other combination of outcomes over 20 games. About 1 in 1,048,576

    Since I assume you're a winning bettor, the odds are better than 1 in a million, but still highly improbable.
    So wormhole is lottery winner?

    if wasnt for goldfarb 19-1 (tie)

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    Quote Originally Posted by cmoney View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by SrslySirius View Post

    That depends on what your true winrate is. For the sake of simplicity, let's assume it's exactly 50%. In that case it's the same as going 10-10 or 3-17 or any other combination of outcomes over 20 games. About 1 in 1,048,576

    Since I assume you're a winning bettor, the odds are better than 1 in a million, but still highly improbable.
    So wormhole is lottery winner?
    No. You'll have 135 more wormhole runs before you win the Mega Millions.

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    Plutonium simpdog's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmoney View Post
    Just curious what the odds are to pick 18 wins, 1 push and 1 loss out of 20 picks.

    Just curious what odds though are for wormhole picks.

    Smart math people please let me know
    Odds are 100% for the worm hole to go 18-1-1.

    Odds for anyone else are very poor.

    Speaking of sending you stuff, is Yebsite in on these picks? You would think he would be up a quarter million by now.

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    Gold Deal's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SrslySirius View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by cmoney View Post
    Just curious what the odds are to pick 18 wins, 1 push and 1 loss out of 20 picks.

    Just curious what odds though are for wormhole picks.

    Smart math people please let me know
    That depends on what your true winrate is. For the sake of simplicity, let's assume it's exactly 50%. In that case it's the same as going 10-10 or 3-17 or any other combination of outcomes over 20 games. About 1 in 1,048,576

    Since I assume you're a winning bettor, the odds are better than 1 in a million, but still highly improbable.
    I would conclude that anybody that has that run must be close to GOD

    Even if your assumption of 50% is right and you can ignore the tie your probability calc is still wrong. Do you really thing the odds of having a coin toss land on heads in 19 of 20 flips is the same as getting 10 heads and 10 tails?

    Using your assumptions, which I don't think are accurate. There are (1/2)^20 = 1048576 different combinations and 20 of those fit the scenerio. (the one loss could be in each of the 20 single events) So the odds are 1/52428.8

    I believe the true odds are much higher due to the tie situation. I don't know enough about sportsbetting to know how much that extra possible outcome makes the odds better for the house but I do know it is not insignificant.
    Last edited by Deal; 12-18-2012 at 05:31 AM. Reason: cmoney=GOD

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    Quote Originally Posted by cmoney View Post
    Just curious what the odds are to pick 18 wins, 1 push and 1 loss out of 20 picks.

    Just curious what odds though are for wormhole picks.

    Smart math people please let me know
     
    bout tree fiddy


    amazing record cmoney! congrats!

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    Diamond mulva's Avatar
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    i think the odds are stacked against you. nobody can keep this winning percentage up. regardless of who you pick i recommend a bet against as a regression is all but inevitable

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    Platinum cmoney's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mulva View Post
    i think the odds are stacked against you. nobody can keep this winning percentage up. regardless of who you pick i recommend a bet against as a regression is all but inevitable

    Wont need to. 2 weeks left in season. Wormhole is being shut down until next season

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    Platinum BetCheckBet's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SrslySirius View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by cmoney View Post
    Just curious what the odds are to pick 18 wins, 1 push and 1 loss out of 20 picks.

    Just curious what odds though are for wormhole picks.

    Smart math people please let me know
    That depends on what your true winrate is. For the sake of simplicity, let's assume it's exactly 50%. In that case it's the same as going 10-10 or 3-17 or any other combination of outcomes over 20 games. About 1 in 1,048,576

    Since I assume you're a winning bettor, the odds are better than 1 in a million, but still highly improbable.
    The odds are only 1-1,048576 if he goes 20-0

    He went 18-1 which is 1-27,594

    And no 19-1 is not the same odds as going 10-10 at all (they are totally different)... Sometimes I wonder if any of you guys play poker anymore :P Suprised no one pointed this out.

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    Feelin' Stronger Every Day tony bagadonuts's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BetCheckBet View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by SrslySirius View Post

    That depends on what your true winrate is. For the sake of simplicity, let's assume it's exactly 50%. In that case it's the same as going 10-10 or 3-17 or any other combination of outcomes over 20 games. About 1 in 1,048,576

    Since I assume you're a winning bettor, the odds are better than 1 in a million, but still highly improbable.
    The odds are only 1-1,048576 if he goes 20-0

    He went 18-1 which is 1-27,594

    And no 19-1 is not the same odds as going 10-10 at all (they are totally different)... Sometimes I wonder if any of you guys play poker anymore :P Suprised no one pointed this out.
    Fortunately Mr. Sirius is much better at making parody songs and videos than he is at math.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BetCheckBet View Post
    The odds are only 1-1,048576 if he goes 20-0

    He went 18-1 which is 1-27,594

    And no 19-1 is not the same odds as going 10-10 at all (they are totally different)... Sometimes I wonder if any of you guys play poker anymore :P Suprised no one pointed this out.
    In the course of 20 games, there are 1,048,576 combinations of possible outcomes (We're still ignoring the possibility of ties to keep it simple). Any one of those outcomes is equally likely as another. A large number of those combinations may result in going 10-10. But each of those is still unique.

    So I'm technically correct (the best kind of correct!), but you're right that I wasn't really giving cmoney the answer he was looking for.

    Let's see if I can sort it out too. So for a series of 19 games, there's 524,288 possible outcomes. Exactly 1 out of those 524k is going 19-0. There's 19 combos of 18-1, so yes, 524,288 / 19 = 27,594. Cool.

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    Platinum BetCheckBet's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SrslySirius View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by BetCheckBet View Post
    The odds are only 1-1,048576 if he goes 20-0

    He went 18-1 which is 1-27,594

    And no 19-1 is not the same odds as going 10-10 at all (they are totally different)... Sometimes I wonder if any of you guys play poker anymore :P Suprised no one pointed this out.
    In the course of 20 games, there are 1,048,576 combinations of possible outcomes (We're still ignoring the possibility of ties to keep it simple). Any one of those outcomes is equally likely as another. A large number of those combinations may result in going 10-10. But each of those is still unique.

    So I'm technically correct (the best kind of correct!), but you're right that I wasn't really giving cmoney the answer he was looking for.

    Let's see if I can sort it out too. So for a series of 19 games, there's 524,288 possible outcomes. Exactly 1 out of those 524k is going 19-0. There's 19 combos of 18-1, so yes, 524,288 / 19 = 27,594. Cool.
    PS sorry if I was a bit harsh. Realized after the fact I pulled a 408.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BetCheckBet View Post
    PS sorry if I was a bit harsh. Realized after the fact I pulled a 408.
    No worries.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SrslySirius View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by BetCheckBet View Post
    The odds are only 1-1,048576 if he goes 20-0

    He went 18-1 which is 1-27,594

    And no 19-1 is not the same odds as going 10-10 at all (they are totally different)... Sometimes I wonder if any of you guys play poker anymore :P Suprised no one pointed this out.
    In the course of 20 games, there are 1,048,576 combinations of possible outcomes (We're still ignoring the possibility of ties to keep it simple). Any one of those outcomes is equally likely as another. A large number of those combinations may result in going 10-10. But each of those is still unique.

    So I'm technically correct (the best kind of correct!), but you're right that I wasn't really giving cmoney the answer he was looking for.

    Let's see if I can sort it out too. So for a series of 19 games, there's 524,288 possible outcomes. Exactly 1 out of those 524k is going 19-0. There's 19 combos of 18-1, so yes, 524,288 / 19 = 27,594. Cool.

    No you weren't at all correct in your first post and are backpeddling only because someone pointed out how wrong you were. I love how you even throw in a "let's see if I can sort this out" after you already told him he was one in a million and followed up with a "135 more wormhole runs before you win the Mega Millions"

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