Just curious what the odds are to pick 18 wins, 1 push and 1 loss out of 20 picks.
Just curious what odds though are for wormhole picks.
Smart math people please let me know
Just curious what the odds are to pick 18 wins, 1 push and 1 loss out of 20 picks.
Just curious what odds though are for wormhole picks.
Smart math people please let me know
send me a bottle of scotch and i'll tell you the answer
That depends on what your true winrate is. For the sake of simplicity, let's assume it's exactly 50%. In that case it's the same as going 10-10 or 3-17 or any other combination of outcomes over 20 games. About 1 in 1,048,576
Since I assume you're a winning bettor, the odds are better than 1 in a million, but still highly improbable.
I would conclude that anybody that has that run must be close to GOD
Even if your assumption of 50% is right and you can ignore the tie your probability calc is still wrong. Do you really thing the odds of having a coin toss land on heads in 19 of 20 flips is the same as getting 10 heads and 10 tails?
Using your assumptions, which I don't think are accurate. There are (1/2)^20 = 1048576 different combinations and 20 of those fit the scenerio. (the one loss could be in each of the 20 single events) So the odds are 1/52428.8
I believe the true odds are much higher due to the tie situation. I don't know enough about sportsbetting to know how much that extra possible outcome makes the odds better for the house but I do know it is not insignificant.
Last edited by Deal; 12-18-2012 at 05:31 AM. Reason: cmoney=GOD
i think the odds are stacked against you. nobody can keep this winning percentage up. regardless of who you pick i recommend a bet against as a regression is all but inevitable
In the course of 20 games, there are 1,048,576 combinations of possible outcomes (We're still ignoring the possibility of ties to keep it simple). Any one of those outcomes is equally likely as another. A large number of those combinations may result in going 10-10. But each of those is still unique.
So I'm technically correct (the best kind of correct!), but you're right that I wasn't really giving cmoney the answer he was looking for.
Let's see if I can sort it out too. So for a series of 19 games, there's 524,288 possible outcomes. Exactly 1 out of those 524k is going 19-0. There's 19 combos of 18-1, so yes, 524,288 / 19 = 27,594. Cool.
No you weren't at all correct in your first post and are backpeddling only because someone pointed out how wrong you were. I love how you even throw in a "let's see if I can sort this out" after you already told him he was one in a million and followed up with a "135 more wormhole runs before you win the Mega Millions"
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