Originally Posted by
Dan Druff
Now here are the answers for SilkRoad, from his original post:
Do you think Seals will be shut down?
I have an agreement with Micon not to discuss Seals, so I will not comment on this one.
Do you think I should sell my bitcoins?
Depends how many you have, and what percentage they make up of your net worth. It also depends how many you need for what you want to do with them. I would not suggest hoarding bitcoins, if that's your question. However, I also am not telling you to panic-sell them. There is a decent chance they will continue to rise in value, but there is also a decent chance that they will crash hard and hit zero. So if your net worth is $30,000 and you have $20,000 of that locked up in bitcoins, yes, I would say you should sell most of them. If you have $1,000 in bitcoins and their loss wouldn't be devastating, then it's not bad if you keep them.
Would you be against US facing poker sites offering bitcoin deposits/withdraws?
No, I would not be against them offering any form of withdrawals that expands the people's options. Anyone who didn't like bitcoins could simply refuse that withdrawal method. However, I would be against US facing poker sites ONLY allowing you to withdraw in bitcoins.
If a poker site like Merge, Bovada, or ACR offered bitcoin withdraws in less than a day, would you continue to wait months for wires/checks/WU or would you get bitcoins?
It depends how bad the situation is. If it looks like a site is about to go Full Tilt on me, I'd be thrilled to take my balance in bitcoins. If withdrawals are taking 4-5 months, again, I'd go with the bitcoins. However, if it's a matter of weeks, I wouldn't want large amounts of money in bitcoins. Bitcoin withdrawals could be useful if you could do a large number of small-medium transactions without limit. For example, if I wanted 20k off Merge and I could do 20 different 1k bitcoin withdrawals quickly, I would probably like that. I wouldn't want all 20k at once in bitcoins, however.
Do you realize that if i sent you $1000 worth of bitcoins, you could nearly instantly convert them to USD if you so hate bitcoin?
Yes, see above.
How much money would you like to bet on government shutting down bitcoin?
We would have to specify a timeframe and the definition of "shutting down". I don't think bitcoins will ever be completely shut down, or at least that won't happen for a long time. However, if their value plummets by a huge percentage, they will be mostly worthless.
Do you think cryptocurrencies are a fad?
Not necessarily a fad, in that they excite anti-government types and computer nerds alike. However, I think cryptocurrencies do not have a place in our current society. I will explain below.
First, it's important to understand that the US government is extremely powerful and can really destroy anything they want. Many claimed that Pokerstars and Full Tilt were safe from the reach of the US Government, but we learned on April 15, 2011 that this was far from true, even though these sites were operating on foreign soil.
Many insist that bitcoins cannot be destroyed or disrupted by the US government because there is no central server or authority managing them.
That's true as shutting down bitcoins themselves, but bitcoins only have actual value because of their ability to be traded for US dollars.
If you take that away, it becomes the equivalent of a poker site that can't process cashouts.
MtGox processes the majority of bitcoin trades.
If the US government went after MtGox, what would happen to bitcoin value?
It would plummet.
What if the US government aggressively went after any company that handled bitcoin-to-USD trading?
Again, they would plummet even further.
You have seen bitcoin values fall when large hackings have occurred. Imagine how it would collapse if the US government was actually targeting sites like MtGox.
Most bitcoin lovers point to the quick ability to cash them out into real money. Take that away -- or make it much more difficult or unsure -- and people won't want to use or collect bitcoins anymore.
Saying that bitcoins would survive such an attack by the US government and hold most or all of their value is clearly wishful thinking.
What about the argument, "The government already knows about bitcoins, and hasn't done anything about it."
The same was said for the major online poker sites. The UIGEA was passed in 2006. Black Friday occurred in 2011. Many felt safe keeping their money on Pokerstars and Full Tilt because it had been so long, and they figured the lightning wouldn't strike at that point. Wrong. The lighting of the DOJ can strike at any time for any reason.
Now let's think about the following scenarios:
1) A terror attack occurs in the United States, killing several Americans. The culprits were found to be al Qaeda members living in the US. Upon further investigation, it was discovered that they eluded detection by receiving funding in bitcoins. What do you think the US general public would like done with bitcoins at that point? What do you think the US response would be? Would they simply ignore this and let more terrorists get funded anonymously by bitcoins?
2) It is discovered that many minors are purchasing drugs online with bitcoins. What do you think the US general public would like done with bitcoins at that point? What do you think the US response would be? Would they simply ignore this and let more kids purchase drugs anonymously through the mail?
3) Illegal guns are obtained using bitcoins, and a Newtown or Aurora-like mass shooting takes place. What do you think the US general public would like done with bitcoins at that point? What do you think the US response would be? Would they simply ignore this and let anyone buy whatever weapons they want, using bitcoins?
The bottom line is that something like the above is inevitable, and the US will take action against bitcoins at that point.