***** OFFICIAL Election Predictions Thread (not for Partisan Bickering and Insulting) *****

[Walter Sobchak]

Citation?

Was on CNN and FOX. dunno if hit net yet

Saw one clip of Fox. I reserve judgment on whether they intend to intimidate voters. If so, Philadelphia is not the place to do so because it is heavily Democratic. They should go to the suburbs of Pittsburgh.

Any attempt to intimidate or disenfranchise voters is despicable whether it is the Black Panthers, the shady electronic voting machines or the Female Circumcision Party.

[Gordman]

Was on CNN and FOX. dunno if hit net yet

Saw one clip of Fox. I reserve judgment on whether they intend to intimidate voters. If so, Philadelphia is not the place to do so because it is heavily Democratic. They should go to the suburbs of Pittsburgh.

Any attempt to intimidate or disenfranchise voters is despicable whether it is the Black Panthers, the shady electronic voting machines or the Female Circumcision Party.

They are literally some of the SAME black panthers who were intimidating voters in 2008. Notice one of them is carrying a night stick.
Note the first two vids are from 2008









TODAY:

[Sloppy Joe]

All of the numbers suggest Obama.

Any argument for Romney winning in this thread has been based on hopeful narratives that are not supported by numbers.

[BeerAndPoker]

Obama is going to get it and then we will see back to back black presidents in 2016 when this man gets in office:

[Walter Sobchak]

Obama is going to get it and then we will see back to back black presidents in 2016 when this man gets in office:

I hope you're right, and I hope he acts more black than Obama has.

[michael]

I hope you're right, and I hope he acts more black than Obama has.

lol @ some half white kid from Hawaii who went to Harvard tricking the marks into thinking they voted a black guy in.

[4Dragons]

Obama is going to get it and then we will see back to back black presidents in 2016 when this man gets in office:

I should bring back the Kwame dupe.

[Lurker1998]

Obama 322 - Romney 216

Only noteworthy thing is that there may be one or two states too close to call that would require a recount in normal circumstances to determine who won, but won't be worth the trouble because they will not be big enough to make a difference. Also, I think that one Maine district will go to Romney.

Gonna pat myself on the back.....may not have nailed the margin right, and may have gotten that district in Maine wrong, but I may be right about Virginia and Florida being too close to call, but not going to matter.

[4Dragons]

Nate Silver was dead nuts on.

[Walter Sobchak]

Nate Silver was dead nuts on.

http://campaignstops.blogs.nytimes.c...6/e-day/#Egan2

In the last days of the election, Peggy Noonan had a “feel” that things were moving Mitt Romney’s way. George Will was more cerebral: his brain told him it would be Romney in a rout. And Michael Barone, who used to have a good divining rod to go along with an encyclopedic knowledge for all numbers political, also predicted a Romney landslide.

What they had in common, aside from putting up a brick Tuesday that completely missed the electoral net, was a last-hurrah push for the old-fashioned prediction by gut.

This was the year the meta-analyst shoved aside the old-school pundit. Simon Jackman of Stanford, Sam Wang at the Princeton Election Consortium and, of course, our colleague Nate Silver, all perfected math-based, non-subjective models that produced predictions that closely matched the outcomes.

People who are surprised by the election – and Sarah Palin looked like she was close to tears as the obvious became obvious even to those who live in the Fox bubble – were probably listening to people who are paid to fantasize.

Karl Rove is Exhibit A. Until the very end, he confidently predicted a Romney victory, though he seemed to give himself some weasel room in bringing up Hurricane Sandy at the end as an excuse. But Rove, who collected millions from deep pockets for his independent expenditure groups, had to predict a Romney victory. Otherwise, why continue to give him money? These donors would have been better off reading the In-trade prediction model – based on real money bet on the outcome. They put the odds of an Obama win at 72 percent on election eve.

Newt Gingrich, who has a preternatural ability to slide out of whatever he said in the past, said without blinking or blushing that Romney would win the popular vote by six percentage points and rack up more than 300 electoral votes. “I base that on just years and years of experience,” he said. And it’s taught him – what?

And we have to mention Dick Morris, who has been assuring Fox listeners for months that Obama was a one-term president. He said Romney would end the night with 325 electoral votes, a number about equal to Glenn Beck’s stellar forecast. “It will be the biggest surprise in recent American political history,” Morris said.

The surprise is that people like Morris – Jon Stewart called him “The King of Wrong Mountain” – continue to find work.

Little wonder then, that so many people turned to the math-based prediction models this year. Moneyball has finally beaten down the old scouts. Not romantic, by any stretch, but more reliable. Now, if only the Republican Party would follow suit, on the major issues of the day, into the reality-based community.

[Walter Sobchak]

I will say this

Wednesday, some of the headlines will be (aside from the obvious)


"Romney wins big, so what went wrong with the political polling?"

"Political polls, are we giving them too much weight?"



you get the idea

[Walter Sobchak]

Here is my breakdown.

If it is close I think Ohio decides it and based on that, we will have our next President.

If it is not quite as close (meaning Romney does better), I think he wins Ohio, Penn, and Nevada for a more dominating victory.

[Walter Sobchak]

Obama is up over 50% in every single poll taken in California and NY.

He is up over 50% many states cumulatively adding up to almost 200 of the 271 electoral votes he needs to win (assuming no faithless electors).

If you are talking about the nationwide polls, there may well not be any with him over 50%, but those polls are irrelevant to who is going to win and who is going to lose.
Obama can easily lose the popular vote and still win the election (may well happen with significantly lower turnout in NY and NJ and all the haters in states Obama is going to lose anyway going over the top voting against him). Also, Obama can win some crucial states without going over 50% (it never works out that 100% of the votes are cast for the top two candidates -- Bush won Florida in 2000 with 48.9% of the vote). If the point you are trying to make is that there are undecideds out there, you are correct that there are still undecideds out there and that is relevant (I think the conventional wisdom is that undecideds tend to go against the incumbent). However, there are way fewer of them than usual and the ones that can impact the election are confined to a small number of states. Yes, if a very large percentage of this small number breaks for Romney he could win, but that is a big task. There is the Tom Bradley factor or whatever it is called when people lie to the poll takers because of race, but i am not sure how one accounts for that.

It's useless information to cite Obama's two strongest states as over 50%. Here are the facts:

Obama's supporters are not energized. The campaign stop that drew 80k strong 4 years ago had just 18k show up yesterday.

People in New York and New Jersey are pissed and demoralized not having power for a week and also waiting in line for gasoline for 6 hours. They aren't blaming Romney for this. They pissed Obama basically hit and ran them. A lot of these people will not vote now and some may vote for Romney.

Obama does not have anywhere near the support he had with the young or ethnic voters. These voters will not necessarily side with Romney but many will not vote at all.

Many republicans who voted for Obama will not vote for him this year.

This election will come down to turnout.

I'm predicting a Romney win today.

[Corrigan]

Ignoring polls/math and predicting Romney landslide:


http://patdollard.com/2012/11/bigges...ney-landslide/