Obama wins w 291
Obama wins w 291
Somebody help me out here, find me a poll that has O up over 50% in a poll? I can't find one.
Obama is up over 50% in every single poll taken in California and NY.Originally Posted by 4Dragons
He is up over 50% many states cumulatively adding up to almost 200 of the 271 electoral votes he needs to win (assuming no faithless electors).
If you are talking about the nationwide polls, there may well not be any with him over 50%, but those polls are irrelevant to who is going to win and who is going to lose.
Obama can easily lose the popular vote and still win the election (may well happen with significantly lower turnout in NY and NJ and all the haters in states Obama is going to lose anyway going over the top voting against him). Also, Obama can win some crucial states without going over 50% (it never works out that 100% of the votes are cast for the top two candidates -- Bush won Florida in 2000 with 48.9% of the vote). If the point you are trying to make is that there are undecideds out there, you are correct that there are still undecideds out there and that is relevant (I think the conventional wisdom is that undecideds tend to go against the incumbent). However, there are way fewer of them than usual and the ones that can impact the election are confined to a small number of states. Yes, if a very large percentage of this small number breaks for Romney he could win, but that is a big task. There is the Tom Bradley factor or whatever it is called when people lie to the poll takers because of race, but i am not sure how one accounts for that.
This is Ohio. Also, you don't need more than 50% to win, kiddo. And it's the electoral college... [stupid]
TRUMP 2024!
I never made any assumptions on any of that. I just wondered out loud if there was a national poll that had O over 50% But QFT anyway. I like the state by state poll answer better, but I was only really talking about national polls. You sound bitter, don't go and hels yourself if it doesn't go the way you think it will. I personally have no horse in this race, I lose either way.This is Ohio. Also, you don't need more than 50% to win, kiddo. And it's the electoral college... [stupid]
Throw this on the fire while we're at it: http://www.theblaze.com/stories/oops...avoring-obama/
Oops: NBC Accidentally Publishes Election Results Showing Obama Win
MSNBC* apparently published a test-page for Tuesday’s election results by accident, calling the election for President Barack Obama, Politico’s Dylan Byers reports.
While the “Presidential results” show GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney winning the popular vote 55-43 percent, the chart shows President Obama winning the election with 280 electoral votes to Romney’s 257.
This + Florida (very close there) Obama with 332 is my guess. I think the lack of cell phone users being represented in many of the polls will show itself to be even more comfortable for Obama than polls show.
In order for Romney to win, the polls have to be fundamentally flawed. They aren't biased, because state newspapers that are both conservative and liberal leaning have it the basically the same. There are a few biased polling agencies that produce outliers, but aren't weighted heavily.
All the serious bookmakers have weighed in on who they believe in the argument between the stat guys and the conservative pundits.
If Romney were to win, I would never pay attention to 538, Sam Wang, or any other outlet that is that wrong. This could happen, presidential races are incredibly small sample sizes, but I wouldn't count on them being wrong.
I am curious if Obama wins if those who have relied on Fox and Dick Morris will feel the same? You can't take anyone who predicts a landslide one direction only for it to go heavily the other serious again, can you? I mean, these people are paid for their insider knowledge. I am speaking of pundits, not those working for the campaigns who are paid to spin.
I won't be able to take anyone who predicts a electoral college landslide seriously ever again if they are wrong and this is their profession. It's the ultimate test about who is full of shit and feeding lies to the gullible. What remains to be seen is who the gullible are. We'll know (hopefully) by this time tomorrow.
Personally I'll go with the number crunchers, and readily admit I was among the gullible if wrong.
Last edited by BCR; 11-06-2012 at 12:54 AM.
While I would still not be shocked with a Romney win, I admit that it is not all that likely at this point.
Obama is looking like he will win Ohio, Nevada, Iowa, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Romney will probably take Florida and North Carolina.
Virginia is a toss-up but I think Romney will get it.
Colorado is a toss-up but I think Obama will get it.
Obama is looking like he'll win 290-248. I think he will narrowly win the popular vote by about 0.5%.
Romney's only chance is an energized voter turnout of his base in Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado (especially Ohio).
I believe the polls that Romney is legitimately behind about 2.5% in Ohio, and behind about 0.5-1% in Colorado.
If there is a strong anti-Obama sentiment in either of those states, he could overcome those deficits, but that 2.5% is going to be pretty tough to overcome in Ohio.
Romney isn't winning Wisconsin or Pennsylvania, so he really needs Ohio or he's done.
May be of some use.. http://washingtonexaminer.com/romney...rticle/2512610
Romney winning independents 59%-35%
Team Romney is drawing satisfaction and a growing sense of confidence from a new CNN poll that, while over-weighting Democrats, shows that Mitt Romney is running away with independents, the Big Kahuna in Tuesday's presidential election.
According to a new CNN poll, Romney is beating President Obama 59 percent to 35 percent among independents even when third party candidates are included. The poll has the race deadlocked at 49 percent, but the sample includes 11 percent more Democrats than Republicans, 41 percent to 30 percent, a bigger gap than recent elections have witnessed.
What's more, the poll found a slight edge for Romney when it came to those who call themselves "very enthusiastic" about voting. In that category, Romney beats Obama 42 percent to 37 percent.
Remember, McCain won Ohio during election day voting in 2008 but he was too far down with early voting for it to matter. This is not the case this year at all. Huge turnaround with early voting and it's known by both parties that Romney will win the election day vote. Will it be enough to overcome early voting. This election it could be.
It's useless information to cite Obama's two strongest states as over 50%. Here are the facts:Obama is up over 50% in every single poll taken in California and NY.
He is up over 50% many states cumulatively adding up to almost 200 of the 271 electoral votes he needs to win (assuming no faithless electors).
If you are talking about the nationwide polls, there may well not be any with him over 50%, but those polls are irrelevant to who is going to win and who is going to lose.
Obama can easily lose the popular vote and still win the election (may well happen with significantly lower turnout in NY and NJ and all the haters in states Obama is going to lose anyway going over the top voting against him). Also, Obama can win some crucial states without going over 50% (it never works out that 100% of the votes are cast for the top two candidates -- Bush won Florida in 2000 with 48.9% of the vote). If the point you are trying to make is that there are undecideds out there, you are correct that there are still undecideds out there and that is relevant (I think the conventional wisdom is that undecideds tend to go against the incumbent). However, there are way fewer of them than usual and the ones that can impact the election are confined to a small number of states. Yes, if a very large percentage of this small number breaks for Romney he could win, but that is a big task. There is the Tom Bradley factor or whatever it is called when people lie to the poll takers because of race, but i am not sure how one accounts for that.
Obama's supporters are not energized. The campaign stop that drew 80k strong 4 years ago had just 18k show up yesterday.
People in New York and New Jersey are pissed and demoralized not having power for a week and also waiting in line for gasoline for 6 hours. They aren't blaming Romney for this. They pissed Obama basically hit and ran them. A lot of these people will not vote now and some may vote for Romney.
Obama does not have anywhere near the support he had with the young or ethnic voters. These voters will not necessarily side with Romney but many will not vote at all.
Many republicans who voted for Obama will not vote for him this year.
This election will come down to turnout.
I'm predicting a Romney win today.
Black panther members outside polling stations trying to intimidate voters.
I hope this inspires people to go out and vote for the so called "racist" party the republicans.
Are they going in the booth with people?
"You run into an asshole in the morning, you ran into an asshole; you run into assholes all day, you're the asshole."
Im inspired.
I would love to see how the people who condone this behavior would react if the roles were reversed so to speak and it was Klansmen standing at the door.
They reported that former Navy Seals are going down to the stations where the panthers are to make sure they dont fuck with anyone.Im inspired.
I would love to see how the people who condone this behavior would react if the roles were reversed so to speak and it was Klansmen standing at the door.
Love to see a Seal wipe the floor with these pieces of shit.
They reported that former Navy Seals are going down to the stations where the panthers are to make sure they dont fuck with anyone.
Love to see a Seal wipe the floor with these pieces of shit.
It is not useless information if you are trying to answer the question -- are there any polls where Obama gets more than 50%. I was attempting to answer a prior poster's question (a question which I even noted was likely irrelevant).
I agree that Romney has a chance. The math of it in Nate Silver's analysis is that Romney has the same chances of winning that a person who needs to fill an inside straight draw with one more card to come has. Could it happen, sure. How many times have you seen miracle cards on the river? Is it likely to happen, no. However, there is plenty of room for Romney to win and the analysis to still be correct. You offer many legitimate reasons why the turnout could be quite different than forecast by the polls and how a different result than the likely one could come. (It is no different than pointing out there are 4 outs in the 44 cards left). Nobody with a brain is out there saying Romney is drawing dead. They are saying he needs a hard one to catch -- but a 4 outer is a lot better than a 1,2, or 3 outer.
Imagine a coin flip bet where you get true odds (1-1) for every flip. Then imagine that they tell you the coin is weighted so it is 75% likely heads will come up and 25% likely tails will come up. Could tails win? sure. Is tails a positive EV call? no.
I do think a lot of the reasons you cite are legitimate reasons the popular vote will be very close....but because of the way states out of contention are likely to come out, I think the way what you are saying is going to manifest itself is that there is a high chance that Romney wins the popular vote, but loses the electoral vote. There are states that Obama has in the bag that he will win narrowly because of the reasons you cite. The states Romney has in the bag are likely to have very high turnout and very wide margins again quite possibly because of the reasons you cite. Could this actually tip the balance to a Romney electoral win...it is possible, but if i am only getting 1-1 odds, I will take the more likely outcome.
Citation?
SOBCHAK SECURITY 213-799-7798
PRESIDENT JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR., THE GREAT AND POWERFUL
Was on CNN and FOX. dunno if hit net yetCitation?
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