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Thread: ***** OFFICIAL Election Predictions Thread (not for Partisan Bickering and Insulting) *****

  1. #1

    ***** OFFICIAL Election Predictions Thread (not for Partisan Bickering and Insulting) *****

    I know it's futile to ask people not to bicker and insult in a thread on PFA but I am asking anyway.

    Post your predictions about any of tomorrow's elections here. Federal, state, local, whatever interests you.

    My predictions:

    President:


    Obama 303 EVs, Romney 235 EVs. This is based on Obama winning OH, VA, NH, IA, WI, CO and NV and Romney winning NC and FL. It'll be over sooner rather than later. 1 AM ET the latest. OH may take days to get their full tally in but Obama will win by just enough not to need OH.

    Popular vote Obama 50%, Romney 48% with roughly 2% going to various others.

    Senate:

    Democrats will retain the majority with 53 seats (including independents caucusing with the Democrats), the same number they have now.

    The closer races will break like this:
    MA: Warren (D)
    VA: Kaine (D)
    IN: Donnelly (D)
    MO: McCaskill (D)
    WI: Baldwin (D)
    NE: Fischer (R)
    ND: Berg (R)
    MT: Rehberg (R)
    NV: Heller (R)
    AZ: Flake (R)

    House:

    Republicans will retain the majority with about the same number of seats they have now +/- 8. I haven't followed closely enough to predict an exact number.

    Let's hear your predictions.
    SOBCHAK SECURITY 213-799-7798

  2. #2
    Photoballer 4Dragons's Avatar
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    Platinum PLOL's Avatar
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    Wow, way to steal my exact electoral prediction asshole. But VA could very well go towards Romney. I think VA will be the closest margin of victory.
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    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

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    Photoballer 4Dragons's Avatar
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    I honestly don't know which way this is gonna go, but I want to paste this here and see if this guy is even close (or before he can change it).

    Name:  map_unskewed_projection_10_25_2012.gif
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    http://www.unskewedpolls.com/unskewe...esident_02.cfm

    He changed it..
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    Last edited by 4Dragons; 11-06-2012 at 02:30 AM.

  7. #7
    I will say this

    Wednesday, some of the headlines will be (aside from the obvious)


    "Romney wins big, so what went wrong with the political polling?"

    "Political polls, are we giving them too much weight?"



    you get the idea

  8. #8
    Also, I realize this was a while ago and maybe this doesn't mean much, but during the Bush Kerry election, im pretty sure Intrade (which was Sportstrade at the time) had Kerry pegged to win the election (I don't remember the numbers). I capitalized on election day when early exit polling was calling it big for Kerry. Something wasn't jiving to me, so I went long on Bush.

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    Photoballer 4Dragons's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gordman View Post
    I will say this

    Wednesday, some of the headlines will be (aside from the obvious)


    "Romney wins big, so what went wrong with the political polling?"

    "Political polls, are we giving them too much weight?"



    you get the idea
    People have no memory. In '10 the polls had everything as either even or just a couple of seats going to repubs. As long as there is a media that needs something to report and political groups willing to bankroll these polls, you will have willing myopia from all sides.

  10. #10
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    Here is my breakdown.

    If it is close I think Ohio decides it and based on that, we will have our next President.

    If it is not quite as close (meaning Romney does better), I think he wins Ohio, Penn, and Nevada for a more dominating victory.

  11. #11
    Obama 322 - Romney 216

    Only noteworthy thing is that there may be one or two states too close to call that would require a recount in normal circumstances to determine who won, but won't be worth the trouble because they will not be big enough to make a difference. Also, I think that one Maine district will go to Romney.

  12. #12
    The only thing for sure is that tomorrow there will be at least one black man going to eat KFC instead of voting.

  13. #13
    I think the polls are way off. They call people on a landline phone and they must go through a long survey.

    Obama wins by a descent margin both by popular vote and electoral college.


    Some Irishbookmaker is so sure of an Obama win that they are paying out early.

    Irish Betting Company So Sure Obama Will Win Its Paying Out a Day Early
    http://gawker.com/5957867/irish-bett...ut-a-day-early

    The controversial Irish bookmaker Paddy Power is certain President Obama is a lock for another four years in the White House. How certain? With over 24 hours remaining before an official winner is declared, the company is already paying out over $800,000 to the gamblers who picked Obama over Romney.

    Known for its headline-grabbing gimmicks, Paddy Power announced the move in a half-page ad that ran in today's Irish Times and the Times of London. Not very surprising coming from the bookie that temporarily changed its name to "O'Bama Power" last year, but the early payout and the provocative ad still bothered a few people.

    A spokesperson for the company defended the decision, saying "Romney gave it a good shot and is doing well in the popular vote, but we suspect he's had his moment in the sun and is likely to be remembered more for his legendary gaffes than presidential potential."

    He continued: "The overall betting trend has shown one way traffic for Obama and punters seemed to have called it 100 percent correct. Despite Romney appealing to the large evangelical and senior vote, America's sticking with black and cool."
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    Photoballer 4Dragons's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheXFactor View Post
    I think the polls are way off. They call people on a landline phone and they must go through a long survey.

    Obama wins by a descent margin both by popular vote and electoral college.


    Some Irishbookmaker is so sure of an Obama win that they are paying out early.

    Irish Betting Company So Sure Obama Will Win Its Paying Out a Day Early
    http://gawker.com/5957867/irish-bett...ut-a-day-early

    The controversial Irish bookmaker Paddy Power is certain President Obama is a lock for another four years in the White House. How certain? With over 24 hours remaining before an official winner is declared, the company is already paying out over $800,000 to the gamblers who picked Obama over Romney.

    Known for its headline-grabbing gimmicks, Paddy Power announced the move in a half-page ad that ran in today's Irish Times and the Times of London. Not very surprising coming from the bookie that temporarily changed its name to "O'Bama Power" last year, but the early payout and the provocative ad still bothered a few people.

    A spokesperson for the company defended the decision, saying "Romney gave it a good shot and is doing well in the popular vote, but we suspect he's had his moment in the sun and is likely to be remembered more for his legendary gaffes than presidential potential."

    He continued: "The overall betting trend has shown one way traffic for Obama and punters seemed to have called it 100 percent correct. Despite Romney appealing to the large evangelical and senior vote, America's sticking with black and cool."
    I had heard about this a day or so ago and in its honor, i will drink Guinness tomorrow while watching the returns.

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    Platinum PLOL's Avatar
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    Dick Morris predicted a McCain win in 2008, so anybody still listening to him at this point...
    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    Dick Morris predicted a McCain win in 2008, so anybody still listening to him at this point...
    I said '10, not '08. And again, this is just for posterity. I just want to see which of the poll idiots is most wrong.

  17. #17
    Feels like the right knows it too.

    Current Breitbart headline: http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Hollywo...ses-mitt-bitch

    Hopefully the GOP gets their shit together and runs somebody better in four years.

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    Diamond Hockey Guy's Avatar
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    Put all your money on Romney. Never heard of this before.

    "If history means anything, the Washington Redskins’ loss Sunday will have an impact on much more than the NFC East.

    It could have wide-ranging implications on the free world.

    That’s if you believe the Redskins Rule.

    Simply put, since 1940, the outcome of the Redskins’ final pre-election game has led to shockingly predictable results from the U.S. electorate.

    With only one exception in 18 elections (2004, when George Bush won despite losing the popular vote), a Redskins win means the incumbent stays in power and a loss means a new president takes office.

    In other words, the Carolina Panthers’ upset of the ’Skins Sunday may be an indicator an even bigger surprise is in the cards in Tuesday’s U.S. presidential election. Robert Griffin III’s loss may just be Mitt Romney’s gain."

    http://slam.canoe.ca/Slam/Football/N.../20330661.html
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hockey Guy
    I'd say good luck in the freeroll but I'm pretty sure you'll go on a bender to self-sabotage yourself & miss it completely or use it as the excuse of why you didn't cash.

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by Sloppy Joe View Post
    Feels like the right knows it too.

    Current Breitbart headline: http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Hollywo...ses-mitt-bitch

    Hopefully the GOP gets their shit together and runs somebody better in four years.
    Please help me to understand how that link is an indicator that the right figures obama is going to win?

  20. #20
    Photoballer 4Dragons's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gordman View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sloppy Joe View Post
    Feels like the right knows it too.

    Current Breitbart headline: http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Hollywo...ses-mitt-bitch

    Hopefully the GOP gets their shit together and runs somebody better in four years.
    Please help me to understand how that link is an indicator that the right figures obama is going to win?
    The only headline that mentions polling on that surrogate station is this, and it's not for O: http://www.breitbart.com/InstaBlog/2...-Tied-In-WI-PA

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