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Thread: Dude Rolls 3 AC Casinos for $15 MIllion at BJ!

  1. #1
    Cubic Zirconia
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    Dude Rolls 3 AC Casinos for $15 MIllion at BJ!

    http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/...ngle_page=true

    This guy dominated the Trop, Borgata, and Caesars for a combined $15 Million. Bascially took advantage of the casinos desperation to get high rollers, they offered him loss rebates and changed the rules at BJ a bit for him. Which ended up allowing him play about an even edge with the casinos. From the article didn't sound like he was counting since his bet was $100,000 but maybe he did, to skew it in his favor a bit. But obv got lucky, but pretty smart to get them to offer more favorable odds.

    Almost as impressive, was he used to be a horse jockey but he was 6 foot 1 and weighted 108 pounds..pretty crazy.

    Micon needs to pay attention to this, instead of being a pro slot player! LOL! Obv he'll never have the money to bet this big, but he should get his millionarie friend Chainsaw Kessler to try it.


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    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Just read this article.

    As usual, the media has no clue about advantage gambling, and glorifies luck as skill.

    Cliff Notes of the article:

    Big gambler is offered $100,000 back on blackjack losses, provided he has lost $500,000 or more.

    He negotiates them offering him optimal standard BJ rules (4 splits, dealer stands on soft 17, double after split allowed, etc.) This lowers the house edge to 0.25%.

    He goes on a hot run and crushes three different casinos for $15 million total.

    He claims he won thanks to negotiating the 20% refund on the losses plus the almost-even odds on perfect play.

    THIS IS BULLSHIT. HE WON THANKS TO BEING LUCKY.

    His belief was that the 20% back on the $500k losses makes it worth it to "keep on playing if you start off hot."

    But he's wrong.

    If you start off hot, the 20% back on $500k losses becomes virtually meaningless. Why? Because in order to get the 20%, you need to lose back everything you just won, plus another $500k. Until that happens,you are just playing standard blackjack where the house has an edge.

    But it's only a 0.25% edge, so what's the big deal? That's actually a very big deal, because it's 0.25% PER HAND, and if you're betting 100k per hand, that's going to eat you alive.

    In reality, the 20% back is only good if your strategy is to shoot for "small" (relative to bet size) wins. That is, keep playing until you either lose $500,000 or until you book a win big enough to where it's better to quit with the winnings than keep playing, even with the 20% refund on a loss of $500k. I'm not sure where that point is. I'd have to work it out mathematically. However, I can tell you that this guy's math (where he feels it's ALWAYS +EV to keep playing) is incorrect.

    Most people playing under these circumstances would give everything back and lose even more -- even if they started off hot. He just ran really well and that didn't happen.

    With that being the case, why did the casino refuse to take further action from him?

    Simple: Variance control.

    The casinos chose odds over variance control, and got burned. They couldn't afford to take another beating, even if the odds were overall in their favor.

    It's the same reason I wouldn't agree to take a 60% shot at a double-or-nothing bet of my life savings. The risk of ruin would not be worth the otherwise big-time +EV bet.

    Casinos love to publicize stories like these because it will encourage other "whales" to show up and bet $100k/hand, believing they have an edge.

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