**Alex's, aka PLOL's, aka KidWithDream's InTrade Sweat Thread Extravaganza** (no partisan replies please)

[PLOL]

I was going to write a marathon posts describing the Ins and Outs of InTrade, but FUCK THAT, I'm just going to post my positions and create a sweat thread. It's pretty simple, if I have a positive share, and the event happens then the share expires at $10. If it doesn't happen it expires at $0. The inverse happens if you have a negative share. To buy 1 share at $7 = $7. To sell 1 share at $7 = $3. For every positive share, there's somebody with a negative share and they always add up to $10. That's about as much as I'll get in to it. Here are my positions so I can be vindicated. Oh, and if you see me having negative shares in an "other" market, you can basically ignore that. It just frees up additional margin. It's complicated.

 

I'll start off with my only non-political position left. I've been stuck with these shares since I bought them right after I heard about the Colorado shootings, and nobody has been letting me get out of the position at a price I'm okay with. The only movies that have the ability to beat TDKR (have an OW over $161m) now are Twilight Breaking Dawn Pt 2 and The Hobbit. I don't see either being able to do it. Once Twilight falls short on November 19th, this market should trade up in to the 90's.

 

Definitely my biggest "position" is on Obama being re-elected. A little over a $10k swing on this happening. The $650 in realized gains from Romney is just profit from the primaries.

 

I think some Gary Johnson nuts are overly optimistic about the voter share he'll receive. He'll probably get more than 0.5%, but hey, I was getting 4 to 1 so why not? I had more shares, but I sold them off (hence the realized profit). Imo, he's a big favorite to get less than 1%, and pretty much a lock to get less than 1.5%. I would prognosticate he'll get somewhere around 0.6% to 0.9% tops.

 

There's a lot of people out there who think Mitt Romney will win the popular vote, but lose the electoral college. It certainly could happen, but over 20% is way too generous. This market actually traded all the way up to almost 30% at one point. It can actually act as a weird hedge against my Obama general longs because the times I win this bet means I will have lost my Obama general election longs, and the times I lose this bet I will have won my Obama general longs. That is to say, Obama is much more likely to benefit from the electoral college. FTR, Nate Silver puts the odds of this happening at under 7%. I don't agree with that number either, but I think it's less than 15%.

 

I must have been drunk when I bought this. Free $0.74 I guess. More if I can sell a share of Arizona.Other (they're linked for margining, it's complicated).

 

This is pretty gambly. Colorado will be close. Would like for Obama to win it. Don't have a whole lot of money on it. $950 to win $1050.

 

Yeah, my screen on this one looks pretty weird. Basically I was long Romney to win FL, and then I got panicky when it looked like Obama would carry Florida, and then when it went back to like 50/50, I changed my mind and became bullish on Romney again. Would like Romney to win FL. And having -525 Dem shares and -175 Rep shares is the same as having +350 Romney shares. So, would like for Romney to win Florida.

 

Would like for Obama to win Iowa

 

Very small position. Would like Obama to win New Hampshire.

 

Big position here in North Carolina. Have 648 shares of Romney to win NC. I got in at a pretty good level, hence why I have a lot in unrealized gains.

 

Would like for Obama to win Penn. **Free money alert**

 

Would like for Romney to win Texas. Will try to get out of this positions if somebody will let me for 0.5% or something.

 

This is another huge positions of mine. I have just over 700 shares of Obama to win Wisc. Even in a Romney victory, Obama will carry Wisc a good amount of the time. This market actually traded to 50/50 twice in the last month, and I missed it both times. It really belongs at 90/10.

 

Just a fun little play. Ideal scenario is Obama winning by between 0.5% to 2%. As you can see, I got in at pretty good levels, but just a small play.

 

I have sentimental feelings towards this market because I got InTrade to create it. At one point I had -20 shares of everything at something like 115%. Basically that means I'm saying there is less than a 115% chance that some state in our nation will have the smallest margin of victory. It's complicated. I bought back some of my Virginia and Colorado shares, so I'm basically long those states now. I'll probably actively trade this market on election day.

 

This is basically what my "bank" looks like now. I left $1k in there mostly to day-trade a couple markets, and $3k is really my friends who wanted me to place some bets for him. I forget what my account started off as, I think something like $17k. I might put it in to something before Tuesday. I think in an ideal scenario I can get my balance to just over $35k.


Here's basically what a perfect storm would look like. Obama wins the general election, but loses Florida, North Carolina, Texas, and Arizona. The Democrats keep control of the senate and the Republicans keep control of the house. Obama wins Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire. There is no Popular Vote / Electoral College split and Gary Johnson gets as few votes as possible. After the election, Twilight comes out and has an Opening Weekend of below $161m.


We are now only 4 more days away from 4 more years!

Also, please keep this thread free of partisan replies. I could care less who you are going to vote for or why. Just vote for who you want and shut up about it already. You are free to say how you feel about one of my positions, but know that I am probably smarter than you and don't really give a shit what you think.

[NaturalBornHustler]

Some would interpret your intrade obsession as quite alarming, but I digress.

[Anal_Hershiser]

You're underestimating "The Hobbit". Unless Peter Jackson absolutely shits the bed, that thing's gonna blow up huge.

[PLOL]

You're underestimating "The Hobbit". Unless Peter Jackson absolutely shits the bed, that thing's gonna blow up huge.

Naw, Twilight is a much bigger threat (and I don't really see it as a threat). The Hobbit trading at just 3% to beat $161m. It'll probably do around $120m

[PLOL]

Some would interpret your intrade obsession as quite alarming, but I digress.

Actually, you never digressed In any event, my obsession should be largely over after the election.

[shortbuspoker]

I attempted to read it. It didn't work. I feel dumber than normal. Thanks buddy.

[BCR]

Interesting thread. I like all your serious positions really. The one that would concern me most is Florida because it feels like it is coming back toward Obama and I've heard turnout there seems to be high for early voting, but you're still a favorite there, and since you live there, I would trust your judgement as to the feel. I think your positions are solid on the election, no idea about the movies.

[PLOL]

Interesting thread. I like all your serious positions really. The one that would concern me most is Florida because it feels like it is coming back toward Obama and I've heard turnout there seems to be high for early voting, but you're still a favorite there, and since you live there, I would trust your judgement as to the feel. I think your positions are solid on the election, no idea about the movies.

As far as the movies contract, it's only a couple hundred dollars. And I actually completely agree with you. The market I am most concerned with right now is Florida. I could get out at 70/30 and make a profit. But, the problem with that is I'm basically using Florida (and North Carolina) as a hedge against my long Obama shares. That is to say that if Romney wins the election, at least I will have made money off my Romney Florida/NC shares. I think Florida will be razor tight, possibly even closer than Virginia or Colorado. In the end, I'm okay if I lose Florida. It's only a ~$3k swing, and if I lose Florida it basically means I won everything else.

And yes, most of my positions are very 'safe' positions. Intrade tends to be "right" about things, but they also tend to undervalue the favorites.

[BetCheckBet]

how does site make make? What sort of juice do they take?

[Anal_Hershiser]

You're underestimating "The Hobbit". Unless Peter Jackson absolutely shits the bed, that thing's gonna blow up huge.

Naw, Twilight is a much bigger threat (and I don't really see it as a threat). The Hobbit trading at just 3% to beat $161m. It'll probably do around $120m

120m? You're crazy. It cost more than that to make.

[shortbuspoker]

Naw, Twilight is a much bigger threat (and I don't really see it as a threat). The Hobbit trading at just 3% to beat $161m. It'll probably do around $120m

120m? You're crazy. It cost more than that to make.

I think it refers to opening weekend

[Anal_Hershiser]

[PLOL]

how does site make money? What sort of juice do they take?

They charge $4.99/month to have an account on the site. That's it. That's the only fee you have to pay. They don't charge a commission or vig on every trade made. It doesn't matter if you have $1k or $100k on the site. Make 10 trades or 1,000 trades a month, you pay the same $4.99/mo. This can somewhat hinder smaller balance users. It doesn't make sense to put $50 on the site. But it's great for people like me.

Naw, Twilight is a much bigger threat (and I don't really see it as a threat). The Hobbit trading at just 3% to beat $161m. It'll probably do around $120m

120m? You're crazy. It cost more than that to make.

As was already mentioned, it's just the OW. I'll take under $130m in the OW at even odds if you'd like to make a bet tho

[Anal_Hershiser]

They charge $4.99/month to have an account on the site. That's it. That's the only fee you have to pay. They don't charge a commission or vig on every trade made. It doesn't matter if you have $1k or $100k on the site. Make 10 trades or 1,000 trades a month, you pay the same $4.99/mo. This can somewhat hinder smaller balance users. It doesn't make sense to put $50 on the site. But it's great for people like me.

Naw, Twilight is a much bigger threat (and I don't really see it as a threat). The Hobbit trading at just 3% to beat $161m. It'll probably do around $120m

120m? You're crazy. It cost more than that to make.

As was already mentioned, it's just the OW. I'll take under $130m in the OW at even odds if you'd like to make a bet tho

Nah. My derp moment swayed my judgement. Looking at the past LOTR movies that were released around the same time of year, your bet looks good. I know lots of people who want to see it, but won't bother with the insanity of opening weekend. I wouldn't say it's impossible to hit $130m+, but it's very unlikely.

[PLOL]

Update: 3 more days

Update on my positions: I sold off some Romney to win Florida. I'll probably buy them back on Monday if it gets closer to 60/40 (R/O), but right now 69/31 is a little too generous for Romney.

[PLOL]

Update: 2 more days until I no longer have daily anxiety attacks.

I didn't do much trading today. Short sold a few more Gary Johnson to get 1% shares @ almost 40%.

I was absolutely shocked at one bid I saw put up yesterday. Somebody big 14,000 shares of Mitt Romney to receive 330+ electoral votes @ 12.5% ($1.25/shr). This is truly incredible. Even if you believe Mitt Romney will win, there's simply no way he can get to 330 electoral votes. I played around with a map and in order to achieve this he would have to win all the obvious states +FLOHVA, CO, NV, NH, IA, WI, PA... but wait, we're still not there, and then pick up either Michigan or Minnesota. the chances of this happening are well under 1%. Of course you need to put up $122,500 in order to match this guy's bid, but he's basically giving away a free $17,500. If I was a multi-millionaire, I would snap take this guy up on his offer. And actually, over 1,000 shares went through, so somebody put up $8,750 to his $1,250, and after that happened he withdrew his remaining shares. Aka, he chickened out or came to his senses.

Also interesting, somebody's arbitrage bot malfunctioned and bought a bunch of Obama to win Indiana shares up to 80%. Nate Silver's model (whom many accuse of being too liberally biased) has Obama's chances of winning Indiana at 0.2%. Oopsie

I had a dream last night about polling data, so yeah... I definitely have a problem. But even more interesting was my dream turned out to be correct. It had to do with the polling data Rasmussen came out with, but I won't bore you with the details.

And finally, I'll leave you with what I predict will happen on election day, with every state filled out. The state I'm least confident about is Virginia (followed by CO, then FL), and I have no outstanding positions in Virginia.

[PLOL]

Good Monday morning. Yesterday we had a bunch of "interesting" trades go through. Including Virginia going down to 20% for Obama to win, and Ohio, Iowa and New Hampshire all going below 50% for Obama to win. Unfortunately missed all of those, but did manage to pick up some CO for Obama at 42% and some more Obama to win Wisc. at 70%. I'm pretty much fully vested at this point. My positions have changed slightly since my first post, but they're still generally the same.

One more day to go. We are seeing unprecidented volume on the Obama contract today, and obviously we'll smash volume records tomorrow. Giddy Up

[PLOL]

Umm.... HIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII.

Also, I had put some lat minute money in Colorado at basically 50/50 last night.

[WillieMcFML]

plol stole

[PLOL]

plol stole

Party up in the White House, drinks on me. And I throw my hands up, we're gonna get paid!