Originally Posted by mulva
LoL @ texas...people that live in texas should be seen and not heard. especially the women.
Wrong, the Butthole Surfers are from Texas just for starters, you lose, good day sir.
Also apparently 300,000 gallons of diesel fuel leaked into the Arthur Kill on Staten Island today.
Above and beyond that being an environmental catastrophe, thats also over $1.2m worth of fuel.
at the in laws hating my life. job is on the fritz..have to watch greek televison (some hot chicks on FthisTV)..wondering how the fuck i''m going to clean up all my down trees.
before and after pics coming soon
Okay here you go enjoy:
OH MY GOD
best fucking video I've seen in a while, A+
Please post more
#FREEJACK #NEVERFORGET
NoFraud Online Poker Room: http://nofraud.pokerfraudalert.com:8087. For password resets and reload requests PM me.
Mulva, what's happening? You were suffering with the inlaws......god I commiserate.........
Have you got back home and what have you had to deal with?
Gonna try to get this thread back on track...
Just went to friend of a friends house to help gut their basement out. They live in Manhattan Beach but if you are unaware where that is, its right next to the marina in Sheepshead Bay. The only thing that seperates the two neighborhoods is the docks where the fishing boats are.
Spend 4 hours helping out a stranger throw away everything they had in their apartment. Here are some before pics..
OSA, where was the water line at? I couldn't make it out in the pics? How many feet?
Every house has a landfill size heap of broken furniture and debris from their house. Ruined mattresses and electronics.
Even though they are going to be receiving 31k per residence, the sentimental things that they lost can't be covered with money
The room was about 8 feet and the water line was a little over 6 feet.
And those pics of the outside were BEFORE we started to gut out the basement apartment
Also the gold square thing is a trojan condom...rofl..it was a chick's apartment as well
From who the Feds?
I know most people don't have flood insurance.
Friend of mine who is in Brooklyn says it is mayhem, can't get anywhere and still no power. Just been stuck in his second floor apt pretty much for days now. Luckily he is a renter, entire first floor of his building needs to be gutted, water was up to the ceiling.
FEMA. Doesn't matter if you don't have flood insurance. People are putting in claims and already seeing people from FEMA.From who the Feds?
I know most people don't have flood insurance.
Friend of mine who is in Brooklyn says it is mayhem, can't get anywhere and still no power. Just been stuck in his second floor apt pretty much for days now. Luckily he is a renter, entire first floor of his building needs to be gutted, water was up to the ceiling.
Brooklyn is still a mess. Garbage is not taken out since last Thurs because Sanitation is coming by and cutting up trees. So many old people are bolting themselves in afraid of opening up doors to strangers that want to help because of fear of getting robbed. People posing as Con Ed and Red Cross holding people up at gunpoint.
Then you have people like me who volunteered to gut this girls basement for free fr 4 hrs(did get sparked up tho..lol). People still have no power and I am bored as fuck putting on the pounds sitting at home instead out in my restaurant taking catering orders. No power in East Village still.
Best way to get places is on a bicycle. Every block you go down you have to turn around because there at least one broken tree. Sad thing is no one talking about this part of BK, or even Staten Island who got it the same if not worse.
I really feel for anyone who has lived or is living through this nightmare.
Disruption to our daily lives is significant even in the slightest..........No power, no utilities, no services, we all expect these as a basic need.
To do without for several days can test the strongest of us.
Stay strong everyone. Your resilience will help you in the future, no matter what comes your way.
The human experience is stronger than any storm.
What the fuck is wrong with you.......do we have to jump through your idiotic link for every stupid thread you start.......
bring it up from honkey, otherwise you're shit
I am procrastinating so I am going to give you a Druff style Q&A, thorough explanation of Moody's figures, with no trolling. If you actually read this, you will learn why storms like this one are an economic benefit to the area. Not all storms and hurricanes, mind you, but this one could easily be. We'll know by next year.
Troll free response here.:
Sonatine is trolling you, but he is doing so because you are throwing out facts and figures with a misconception of how they are derived, what they mean, and grossly over estimating the impact of the "loss" of business. Moody's figures are misleading, mainly because they are trying to mislead you. They profit from this. it will be only partially explained why, but Sonatine clearly knows all this, and is doing nothing to actually explain it.
Those 20 BILLION values are for goods and services not sold in the two day window they are randomly choosing. Basically lost revenue. Moody's calls this "lost business activity". That's a true imaginary line (next to net profit? revenue? wtf?) in the accounting world in which noone ever uses the term to figure out anything out of significance ever. Is it lost profit? Some of it is, but mostly not.
Remember Moody's uses "business activities" to set credit ratings. Business activities that are central to Moody’s assessment of their credit profiles
http://www.businessinsider.com/downg...#ixzz2B2vETuPs
It is defined:
Any activity that is engaged in for the primary purpose of making a profit. Business activities can include things like operations, marketing, production and administration.
Also known as "business operations".
Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/...#ixzz2B2rSEic6
Investopedia explains 'Business Activities''
This is a general term that encompasses all the economic activities carried out by a firm during the course of business. Business activities are ongoing and are focused on creating value for shareholders.
Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/...#ixzz2B2r3Us50
In fact it would be impossible, mathematically speaking for there to be a loss of 20 billion in profits. Especially since Moody disputes this in their own figures released the same day. It is more or less lost revenue, which wouldn't grab headlines in a city with trillions of revenue, so they went with a LOLO-STAT. "Business Activity" Something I must have missed in accounting. So it is spending by business? WTF? A business could spend in areas other than their own city right? How does waiting 3 days for Calvin Klein to put up a billboard in Seattle affect NYC? Or anything anywhere? The spending doesn't disappear. It is just delayed. So its utterly bullshit right? Well not utterly. Because Moody's doesn't even use business activity figures as defined. They pretty much use revenue and figures used in the insurance industry to cover certain types of loss in business often called "loss of use".
This grandizing headline grabbing 20 BILLION figure is truly useless figure in any other way than for free advertising for Moody's. You could ask any insurance executive. They know the figure is not accurate. They sell actual "loss of use" insurance policies and endorsements that come in several forms and have several different names, but they are basically the same function: reimbursing businesses for their lost revenue from a covered peril, which Sandy most certainly applies.(an example of a non-covered peril would be a nuclear bomb or an act of war). The policies are very different depending on the state and it is always highly regulated by state government. Virtually all businesses have this insurance as even tiny companies like mine carry it, hell even BBQ stands carry it. I don't know about NY but I know in Texas the retail strip malls and commercial buildings here won't lease to a snow cone stand without them carrying it. Switching tenants is arduous and expensive and the commercial property owners want to make sure that they don't have a lot of costly turnover at the same time due to an "act of god". So most businesses carry it as part of a normal policy. I understand some states sell these policies completely separately but the fact is this and basic liability is the most important insurance any business can have. it is certain that most companies have it. From there we can derive more accurate figures.
This is my first point. The 20 billion lost would be mostly insured, and this is higher than most financial company estimates (Moody's for instance) are estimating for total insurance losses in the entire region.
Why would the losses from just one type of coverage within a policy exceed the total losses for all policies and coverages combined, even when estimated by the same company, Moody's. It can't.
How is the figure from Moody's derived?
By calculating revenue not collected in a certain window of time. They aren't even using the real definition of Business Activity. It is also ridiculous and should be a red flag that the time frame referenced in their press release is two days in their "calculations". That seems arbitrary huh? I mean some businesses will be closed longer than others. Moody's doesn't have that info. Only God does. How fast power companies work and the weather for the next week affecting that would then be the single most important stat. It's not. Moody's does indeed have a time period selected for the numbers they sell, they just don't tell you that because then it will reduce the impact of their statement. The time period is usually one month. But even if it isn't, even if it is two days the street is flooded, it is inaccurate as hell and doomed to not reflect true lost business. More on that later.
Why is the Moody's loss figure inaccurate for the purpose of our discussion?
For one it is how "loss" is defined, it is inaccurate. The first thing that comes to mind is a restaurant. What is lost when they are closed by the storm? Well if they average $5k a day in receipts, you could say that is how much you lost. But it's not. You can only "lose" profits. Not to say that losses are determined purely by profitability, (they aren't that would screw a struggling restaurant), but by what would have been gained above fixed costs. This is what insurance companies insure in the policies they sell.
So, if the restaurant brings in $5000 a day in revenue, but they save $4500 a day in food and labor costs, then their insured "loss of use" losses would be about $500 a day. We just reduced by 90% the "loss". Because lost revenue and lost profit after fixed costs are wildly different things. And note that the spoiled food for instance would be under their regular Fire policy. This is an insured loss like losing a truck and is not a "lost business" type loss.
Why do you keep saying "after fixed costs"?
Because any company has to pay things like their lease and even their insurance policy regardless of whether they are open or not. Salaried employees fall under "fixed costs" as well. These costs are the very reason they buy the policies to begin with. Fixed costs are why insurers don't simply insure lost "profits". The storm did not affect their fixed cost in any way whatsoever. Just their revenue (hurt it) and their expenditures (helped it).
You said you had numerous examples. Not every business operates like a restaurant Asshole.
And each example I give further wilts the ridiculous 20 billion figure. Let's take a new car dealership. They can't sell cars when they are not open. OK. true and this is the perfect example to prove Sonatine's and my point. If an average day has $100k in sales, Moody's tags that as $100k in losses daily.
Fuck they are going to sell those cars eventually, so they aren't exactly losing any revenue right? All their costs are more or less fixed? Why would they carry this type of insurance then? Because less selling days mean less revenue. Period. This type of business would more or less choose their loss of use coverage amount, much like we choose how much life insurance we have. The more insurance the higher the premium. However just as cook has a hard time getting life insurance for a million dollars, the insurance companies won't let you get much loss of use if you aren't bringing in the big bucks. The policy is basically a fixed amount per day you are closed by a covered peril, IN THE NEW/USED CAR SALES DEPARTMENT. The service department is a different story. This is interesting because of the fact that lost revenue IS TRULY LOST. The service departments charge per hour for repairs and hours they can't charge. On this Moody's is closer to the target. And the part's department would be similar to a restaurant with less revenue, but less outlay on the actual costs of the parts they didn't have to buy. So clearly lost revenue DOES NOT equal true lost business. especially in real estate and car sales and things of that nature.
Financial traders with near 100% salaried workers and 100% fixed cost WOULD INDEED have nearly all their lost revenue as real business losses. This is half of Wall Street right? Those guys probably lost billions right?
This is exactly why the time period is so important to calculating losses. On the trading days lost, the losses would be horrendous. However, when the market opened, the markets had a shit ton more activity and trades than usual. It was certainly lost revenues on particular days, but in a week? In a month? Well the trades catch up. Sure they lost some real money, and they are insured for it. But it is nowhere near as much as the total revenue they would have collected off trades for those couple days. Not to mention they paid a lot less commission out to their brokers.
OK So the numbers are obviously garbage. I am smart enough to understand "loss of use" insured losses can't possibly exceed total insured losses from all types residential and commercial. So why did Moody's contradict itself with it's own numbers? Why the fuck do they have them in the first place? Moody's isn't a strip club with neon lights you know.
Well for one their press release was shortened by the headline writers and the one liner junk news for the short attention span department. The details were left out of in the article that were in their actual Businesswire release for instance. But Moody's knew that was going to happen. Who is their target here? Easy, it is customers that actually DO need this junk "business activity loss" info. Banks wanting to loan less or more pay for reasons to raise or lower credit ratings. Moody's centrally is a credit rating company with lots of data. People buy this data. These customers must only care about revenue lost in a specific time frame and not actual business losses or business "pain". Maybe consulting companies in certain industries where the money truly is "lost forever" might buy these figures . Taxing entities for another could use part of this information they gathered. Hoboken to New York City even to a Water Utility Districts or Drainage District. There are tons of tiny and large taxing entities. They truly need to know almost exactly how much revenue is lost by Sandy so that they can make or adjust a budget. They don't care about profits. They don't care about costs. They only care about that revenue lost in a certain period of time. Perhaps their fiscal quarter or year ends OCT 31st? they have to set a budget with those days missing. The fact that those revenues will be made up next quarter or year means nothing to them. This is exactly the kind of shit Moody's sells. Then it was misinterpreted by 99% of the average Joe's reading the news snippet. This is also why i hate news snippets being a point of discussion. So much missing info and to form an opinion?, but that's the soundbite world we live in and is exactly why American politics and government is so terrible.
So Moody's sells this revenue info to various customers. Why give it away?
This horseshit factoid stirs up interest. Each customer, (banks, some tax entities, financials) They have to pay for their particular area. The sum, total is truly meaningless to everyone. It made for great free advertising though.
Any more bold statements?
The amount of actual "gone forever" business loss or "pain' to the affected area for the short term will not sniff 20 million much less 20 billion. I'll tell you why.
Because insurance money FLOWS into a stricken area. Not out. They are cashing in on policies at a rate that far exceeds their total insurance costs for the year.
Basically insuring is a gamble. When the storm actually hits, against the odds, that region wins! Take roofs alone, which are virtually 100% insured everywhere. The residential folks THIS YEAR, spent an average of $1000 on their insurance policy. An even smaller part of that was to cover roofs, literally not more than a couple hundred a year percentagewise(remember the policy is still paying out on windows decks too etc)......BUT THESE ROOFS ARE CASHING IN ON AVERAGE AT $10,000. I mean the storm is the lottery for a lot of folks. What's more much of the things paid on won't be fixed or replaced, putting even more cash into the local economy. So basically, money is coming from an insurer in Omaha and cashed by someone in New Jersey. Even if that check is used to repair things with no profit for the insured, the money is mostly spent locally in doing so. MONEY FLOWS TO AREAS HIT AND PROPERLY INSURED. HURRICANES CAUSE ECONOMIC BOOMS USUALLY.
Katrina didn't cause a boom. That's because it was largely UNINSURED LOSSES. Flood is covered by the federal government and most people do not have flood insurance. What's more is that Katrina went for so long the "loss of use" hit policy limits in terms of time and money. The policy may specify coverage for one week or one month. Katrina caused economic losses for months, years.
One last interesting fact mentioned earlier is that the 911 event was largely not insured. Most policies excluded terrorism then, they all do now. If your house gets blown up by a terrorist, and is labeled as such an event, your home is not insured. Sorry. That is why the US govnt put so much into helping victims. It was a special case.
bring it up from honkey, otherwise you're shit
FEMA. Doesn't matter if you don't have flood insurance. People are putting in claims and already seeing people from FEMA.
Brooklyn is still a mess. Garbage is not taken out since last Thurs because Sanitation is coming by and cutting up trees. So many old people are bolting themselves in afraid of opening up doors to strangers that want to help because of fear of getting robbed. People posing as Con Ed and Red Cross holding people up at gunpoint.
Then you have people like me who volunteered to gut this girls basement for free fr 4 hrs(did get sparked up tho..lol). People still have no power and I am bored as fuck putting on the pounds sitting at home instead out in my restaurant taking catering orders. No power in East Village still.
Best way to get places is on a bicycle. Every block you go down you have to turn around because there at least one broken tree. Sad thing is no one talking about this part of BK, or even Staten Island who got it the same if not worse.
No. don't be telling people this shit. Im pretty sure it don't work like this. Its possible, but to act as if it is automatic is ridiculous. They have to have uninsured actual cash value damages (not replacement) totaling that for one, and I'd struggle to find that in these old materials. or They have to use it towards materials in their house I believe to be reimbursed. I cant remember which.
Plus flood insurance does matter. If you are totally insured, pretty sure you get zero from this FEMA disaster shit. I think it is for the underinsured. I dont think it covers content either but i could be wrong.
Thanks for the stunningly brilliant intro sentence, I will call that the appetizer for this banquet.....a banquet not of food.......but of words. Words that flow like a gentle stream into my mouth. I gobble these treasures you share with us Les. Gobble.
Finally the main course! Oh my you are the Chef Paul Prudhomme of linguists. Such descriptive details. Such hidden meaning. I mean 4 cliches in a row. Lined up like my 2nd third 4th and 5th course. You have so expertly put together a quartet of clichés most exquisite.
I didn't know how you could improve on my appetizer........
you went and did it.
WITH
FOUR
DELICIOUS
CLICHéS.
Solid as a rock.
I need no more sustenance tonight.
I am filled with content.
No dessert necessary.
Four cliches in a 6 sentence lolograph.
Four fucking heartstring tuggers in a row.
Did your eyes water as did mine when you typed those precious words?
Oh Les, the importance your advice carries to the rest of us, is brought out craftily by your bold and stunning use of four clichés.
IN A ROW Les!
Bravo. Good Sir.
What a brilliant mind.
I've heard of three but four?
I
foolishly
thought
only
a
hero
like
Parko
can
do
4
Clichés.
In
a
row
And
it
turns
out
I
am
right
Les
as
you
ARE
my
Hero.
Your depth of character and intellectual prowess is remarkable. Thank's again for the treat.
Last edited by GAMBLE-BOT; 11-01-2012 at 11:57 PM.
NYC Looters (Obama's base voters) Dress Like Con Edison Workers to Gain Access to Houses.
Live Updates - NY/NJ Gas Shortages: Mile-Long Lines, Rationing, Fights, Police Draw Guns...
Vote for Romney, he might not be able to stop a hurricane but he damn well will give the OK to shoot looters on sight.
Fuck these these low life scumbags. Let's take Americas back!
Vote early, vote proudly, vote Romney!
I'm back once more to say again how deep and special Les's observations of the human spirit. I mean how can you convey these fresh ideas properly when they are so cutting edge. So dripping with meaning. Dripping like a faucet.
Most writer's and brilliant writer's would fail here. They would fail to capture the moment. That is because they do not have the ingenuity nor the ability to innovate with words like Les does......Les truly pulls it off. With four clichés in a row.
SHOUT OUT TO TEE BALL
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