Is one weird Frenchman manipulating the Presidential electiom betting markets -- and by extension the impression of the race?

[Daly]

Anyone who thinks some random person, a Musk Beard or not, can materially move the collective betting markets from 50/50 “with a vig” to ~ 60/40 doesn't understand how betting markets work.

Its especially true if the hypothesis is 25m moved a market in the billions of liquidity.


Simply put if the election was closer to 50/50 than 60/40 there would be dearth of capital at the window for Harris and the book would have adjusted the lines before the third person in line got the bet in……

….. in fact with a info/data market like this the odds would have never got out to -165 to begin with.

Its a nice story, its just not how it works.

[tgull]

the incredible part of all this is that naturally if trump loses, the first thing retardians trot out as evidence of it being rigged will be these polls.

Are you a trash (partisan) poll denier?

Poll denier is a little harsh. But there has been a systemic contamination of the left wing media that candidly has been unfair to the general electorate. Systemic contamination, and its not their fault. These things happen over time. You just deal with it, book burning is always the first step.

[sonatine]

Anyone who thinks some random person, a Musk Beard or not, can materially move the collective betting markets from 50/50 “with a vig” to ~ 60/40 doesn't understand how betting markets work.

Its especially true if the hypothesis is 25m moved a market in the billions of liquidity.


Simply put if the election was closer to 50/50 than 60/40 there would be dearth of capital at the window for Harris and the book would have adjusted the lines before the third person in line got the bet in……

….. in fact with a info/data market like this the odds would have never got out to -165 to begin with.

Its a nice story, its just not how it works.

is it possible youre confusing books with on-chain betting markets?

[sonatine]

the incredible part of all this is that naturally if trump loses, the first thing retardians trot out as evidence of it being rigged will be these polls.

Are you a trash (partisan) poll denier?

im not saying polls have no value but the people currently posting them the most are doing so specifically to support their personal agendas, and theres clearly a thriving industry where people deliberately put out skewed dogshit polls knowing full well that they are hilariously flawed.

[Sanlmar]

The value of this thread for me was the existence of guys like Domer grinding 18 hours a day like a poker multitabler in days of yore. That Domer was a poker player was just perfect.

As well, a reminder that our sovereign, Peter Thiel, owned Nate Silver and Polymarket fit well into the narrative that runs in my head.

Can someone flag down Plop? Is that too much to ask?

[Dan Druff]

Anyone who thinks some random person, a Musk Beard or not, can materially move the collective betting markets from 50/50 “with a vig” to ~ 60/40 doesn't understand how betting markets work.

Its especially true if the hypothesis is 25m moved a market in the billions of liquidity.


Simply put if the election was closer to 50/50 than 60/40 there would be dearth of capital at the window for Harris and the book would have adjusted the lines before the third person in line got the bet in……

….. in fact with a info/data market like this the odds would have never got out to -165 to begin with.

Its a nice story, its just not how it works.

I substantially moved the "Biden wins the 2020 primary" line with a $3500 bet. And I'm talking about the worldwide market.

Admittedly that's not the same as the current Harris-Trump market, but $3500 also isn't $25m.

It is believable that $25m bet within a relatively short time could move the market, and combined with good reason to doubt Harris (see recent interviews), people could really buy into the line being valid.

[Sanlmar]

Anyone who thinks some random person, a Musk Beard or not, can materially move the collective betting markets from 50/50 “with a vig” to ~ 60/40 doesn't understand how betting markets work.

Its especially true if the hypothesis is 25m moved a market in the billions of liquidity.


Simply put if the election was closer to 50/50 than 60/40 there would be dearth of capital at the window for Harris and the book would have adjusted the lines before the third person in line got the bet in……

….. in fact with a info/data market like this the odds would have never got out to -165 to begin with.

Its a nice story, its just not how it works.

I substantially moved the "Biden wins the 2020 primary" line with a $3500 bet. And I'm talking about the worldwide market.

Admittedly that's not the same as the current Harris-Trump market, but $3500 also isn't $25m.

It is believable that $25m bet within a relatively short time could move the market, and combined with good reason to doubt Harris (see recent interviews), people could really buy into the line being valid.

We also don’t know this was limited to $25m. Someone may be simultaneously pounding offshores (especially Pinny).

Very inexpensive advertising or not

[Dan Druff]

I substantially moved the "Biden wins the 2020 primary" line with a $3500 bet. And I'm talking about the worldwide market.

Admittedly that's not the same as the current Harris-Trump market, but $3500 also isn't $25m.

It is believable that $25m bet within a relatively short time could move the market, and combined with good reason to doubt Harris (see recent interviews), people could really buy into the line being valid.

We also don’t know this was limited to $25m. Someone may be simultaneously pounding offshores (especially Pinny).

Very inexpensive advertising or not

It would be hilarious if this was causing Kamala's camp to panic and make unforced errors, such as appearing on Fox News.

I still maintain that Kamala's best chance was to go into the basement after doing fairly well in the debate (at least compared to Trump), and then hope Trump beats himself. The more she speaks, the more it becomes clear to everyone that she is clueless.

[Daly]

Anyone who thinks some random person, a Musk Beard or not, can materially move the collective betting markets from 50/50 “with a vig” to ~ 60/40 doesn't understand how betting markets work.

Its especially true if the hypothesis is 25m moved a market in the billions of liquidity.


Simply put if the election was closer to 50/50 than 60/40 there would be dearth of capital at the window for Harris and the book would have adjusted the lines before the third person in line got the bet in……

….. in fact with a info/data market like this the odds would have never got out to -165 to begin with.

Its a nice story, its just not how it works.

is it possible youre confusing books with on-chain betting markets?

Ill admit the arbitrage between “on chain betting” and price on offer at books is a very interesting concept and probably worth exploring. Someone could write a econ thesis on it and Im actually being serious.

[Daly]

I substantially moved the "Biden wins the 2020 primary" line with a $3500 bet. And I'm talking about the worldwide market.

Admittedly that's not the same as the current Harris-Trump market, but $3500 also isn't $25m.

It is believable that $25m bet within a relatively short time could move the market, and combined with good reason to doubt Harris (see recent interviews), people could really buy into the line being valid.

We also don’t know this was limited to $25m. Someone may be simultaneously pounding offshores (especially Pinny).

Very inexpensive advertising or not

My point is it could be 250M….

If a sucker is wiling to lay -160 to back Trump when the number based on cold hard dat, “Insider data”, is -115 there are market makers that will let them bet as much as they like and they would be more likely to drop the line to -135 to get them to bet more than they would raise it to -200 to get them to stop.

The above is true so long as its a super deep/liquid market, which id argue it is.

The odds on offer have shifted because of the polling in swing states not because some person showed up with a 25m Bag.

[sonatine]

We also don’t know this was limited to $25m. Someone may be simultaneously pounding offshores (especially Pinny).

Very inexpensive advertising or not

My point is it could be 250M….

If a sucker is wiling to lay -160 to back Trump when the number based on cold hard dat, “Insider data”, is -115 there are market makers that will let them bet as much as they like and they would be more likely to drop the line to -135 to get them to bet more than they would raise it to -200 to get them to stop.

The above is true so long as its a super deep/liquid market, which id argue it is.

The odds on offer have shifted because of the polling in swing states not because some person showed up with a 25m Bag.

[PLOL]

Can you confirm Domer is PLOP for us Sonatine?

I've known Domer for 13 years now, from back when I first started trading on InTrade in 2011. Back then he had a much smaller bankroll, now he's done over $300 million in volume just on Polymarket. He is probably the sharpest prediction market/political bettor there is. When he says something, you should listen closely and take it seriously. I've made good money in the past just copy and pasting his trades. You don't have to be smart, you just have to know who the smart people are.

Great thing about Polymarket is you can publicly see somebody's positions. Here's Domer's profile:
https://polymarket.com/profile/0x9d8...475fc0f1dc1344

He's been building positions on Kamala lately. I had mainly been on the sidelines and was planning on staying that way, but I've been getting pulled back in with some of the Freddi based movement. Sold off 100 SOL to start buying Kamala Harris to win the popular vote. The odds dipped down to 62% briefly with the Freddi movement, but have since shot back up closer to 70%. True odds are prob 85%+. Trump may win the EC (I'd put it at like 52/48 rn) but come on, even Clinton beat Trump by 3 million votes. Biden by 7 million. That's too big of a deficit to overcome. If you're more risk averse there's also arbitrage opportunities between Polymarket and Kalshi. I'm hoping Freddi comes back and pushes the price back below 65c, I'm looking to put another $20k on it. They say the French don't work weekends, so hopefully we'll see him back on Monday. I don't think he's done yet.

One downer is I'm converting SOL to USDC to build my positions, so if SOL keeps going up it could nullify some of my profit when I convert back. But I'll take a > 50% ROI in a few weeks if it hits. Another thing that gives me pause is Domer hasn't built a Kamala pop vote position and I'm not sure why. Not sure if he sees better value elsewhere, or just hasn't built his position yet, or if he sees something I don't.

plop

[PLOL]

btw, here's Domer's original thread on Fredi

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/Domahhhh/status/1843320398735106155

[PLOL]

Anyone who thinks some random person, a Musk Beard or not, can materially move the collective betting markets from 50/50 “with a vig” to ~ 60/40 doesn't understand how betting markets work.

No VIG on polymarket. God bless

[Dan Druff]

Can you confirm Domer is PLOP for us Sonatine?

I've known Domer for 13 years now, from back when I first started trading on InTrade in 2011. Back then he had a much smaller bankroll, now he's done over $300 million in volume just on Polymarket. He is probably the sharpest prediction market/political bettor there is. When he says something, you should listen closely and take it seriously. I've made good money in the past just copy and pasting his trades. You don't have to be smart, you just have to know who the smart people are.

Great thing about Polymarket is you can publicly see somebody's positions. Here's Domer's profile:
https://polymarket.com/profile/0x9d8...475fc0f1dc1344

He's been building positions on Kamala lately. I had mainly been on the sidelines and was planning on staying that way, but I've been getting pulled back in with some of the Freddi based movement. Sold off 100 SOL to start buying Kamala Harris to win the popular vote. The odds dipped down to 62% briefly with the Freddi movement, but have since shot back up closer to 70%. True odds are prob 85%+. Trump may win the EC (I'd put it at like 52/48 rn) but come on, even Clinton beat Trump by 3 million votes. Biden by 7 million. That's too big of a deficit to overcome. If you're more risk averse there's also arbitrage opportunities between Polymarket and Kalshi. I'm hoping Freddi comes back and pushes the price back below 65c, I'm looking to put another $20k on it. They say the French don't work weekends, so hopefully we'll see him back on Monday. I don't think he's done yet.

One downer is I'm converting SOL to USDC to build my positions, so if SOL keeps going up it could nullify some of my profit when I convert back. But I'll take a > 50% ROI in a few weeks if it hits. Another thing that gives me pause is Domer hasn't built a Kamala pop vote position and I'm not sure why. Not sure if he sees better value elsewhere, or just hasn't built his position yet, or if he sees something I don't.

plop

Funny, I saw the Harris popular vote line and considered placing some there. I had the same thought as you. It is hard to believe Trump will win the popular vote. He just has too many people who hate him, and the dark blue states have lots of people who show up to cast their votes against him. These people are meaningless for the electoral college, but they pad the popular vote for the D side.

Thanks for the link regarding Domer. Not sure if I'll bet this cycle, but what you posted is definitely helpful.

[Sanlmar]

The Domer profile link was delicious. Thanks @PLOL

Love to know what you’re on (your profile) but respect and all that.

[PLOL]

The Domer profile link was delicious. Thanks @PLOL

Love to know what you’re on (your profile) but respect and all that.

it's almost all just Kamala popular vote.

Also, while a little over $2 billion has been bet in EC winner market, there's only about $170 million in open interest ($95 million on Trump and $77 million on Harris).

[Daly]

Anyone who thinks some random person, a Musk Beard or not, can materially move the collective betting markets from 50/50 “with a vig” to ~ 60/40 doesn't understand how betting markets work.

No VIG on polymarket. God bless

Got to be a fee of some sort?

My point was a billion dollar pool went from aprox 50/50 to whatever it is this morning (not 50/50).

[sonatine]

One downer is I'm converting SOL to USDC to build my positions, so if SOL keeps going up it could nullify some of my profit when I convert back. But I'll take a > 50% ROI in a few weeks if it hits. Another thing that gives me pause is Domer hasn't built a Kamala pop vote position and I'm not sure why. Not sure if he sees better value elsewhere, or just hasn't built his position yet, or if he sees something I don't.

plop

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/WatcherGuru/status/1848102716448412112

the game is the game.

[Sanlmar]

No VIG on polymarket. God bless

Got to be a fee of some sort?

My point was a billion dollar pool went from aprox 50/50 to whatever it is this morning (not 50/50).

Looks like Polymarket has $200m open interest and who knows what fraction the Presidential market represents. Maybe Plop can clarify

Poly is illegal, crypto tedious and offers no leverage. I’m not sure truly how liquid it is.

That said, I got my ploppy bet in and we will see.

My interest in the story has more to do with the players than the play itself. Love it. New degenerate vistas to be explored