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Thread: Official Presidential Polling and Odds thread

  1. #1021
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    Quote Originally Posted by go_buccos View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by go_buccos View Post

    Above were the opening Pinny odds on 9/12/2024 for each battleground state. Current Pinny odds below:

    EC Winner: Trump -177, Harris +150
    Arizona: Trump -260
    Florida: Trump -1870
    Georgia: Trump -243
    Maine: OFF
    Michigan TIE -110
    Nevada: Harris -115
    New Hampshire: Harris -700
    North Carolina: Trump -208
    PA: Trump -143
    Texas: Trump -2225
    Virginia: Harris -680
    Wisconsin: Trump -123

    Popular vote winner: (just added) Harris -252
    The above update was from 10/17.

    11/4 Pinny update/comparison as of 6:30 PM CST:

    EC Winner: Trump -162/Harris +141

    Popular Vote: Trump +271/Harris -326

    Arizona: Trump -339
    Florida: Trump -2500
    Georgia: Trump -211
    Iowa: (just added) Trump -605
    Michigan: Harris -205
    Nevada: Trump -135
    New Hampshire: Harris -534
    North Carolina: Trump -226
    Pennsylvania: Trump -131
    Virginia: Harris -1206
    Wisconsin: Harris -147

    Some other markets just added:

    Democrat total states won: 21.5 O -162
    Republican total states won: 29.5 U -194

    Trump wins BOTH MI and PA: +245
    Trump wins BOTH MI and WI: +259
    Harris scoops Rust Belt: (PA/MI/WI) +156
    Trump scoops AZ/NV/NC/GA: +115
    Trump scoops all 7 battlegrounds: +386

    Harris OVER 51.999% popular vote: +150

    Record turnout according to uselectionatlas.org: YES -172

    County markets:

    Bucks, PA: Harris -228
    Clark, NV (Vegas) OFF
    Erie, PA: Trump -142
    Kent, MI: (Grand Rapids) Harris -230
    Macomb, MI: (Detroit burbs) OFF
    Maricopa, AZ: (Phoenix) Harris -121
    Pinellas, FL: (Tampa Bay) Trump -331

    Values as I see them at these prices:

    MONSTER value: (3 units each)

    Trump -605 in Iowa. (It opened yesterday something like -408 so best value already gone. That poll was complete quackery. I would bet it up to -900)
    Trump -135 in Nevada. (Jon Ralston knows his shit and he's pretty much called it for Trump already)
    Harris +184 in North Carolina (That asshat tranny-loving GOP guv candidate has a legit chance to cost him the entire state)

    Solid value: (2 units each)

    Trump popular vote +271
    Trump +837 in Virginia
    Trump to scoop NC/NV/AZ/GA: NO -139. (See above)
    Record turnout YES -172

    Thin value: (1 unit each)

    Harris EC Winner +141
    Trump +121 in Wisconsin
    Trump +167 in Michigan
    Harris scoops PA/WI/MI: YES +156
    Trump wins all 7 battlegrounds: NO -501 (again this is mostly due to the NC situation)

    Really not sure why the market has moved so heavily for Harris in Michigan in the last week. It was -110/-110 a few days ago.

    Gonna be a VERY interesting day tomorrow.

    Good luck to all who have wagered.
    Results:

    Monster: 2-1, +3u
    Solid: 1-3, -2.8u
    Thin: 2-3, -4.54u

    Total: 5-7, -4.34u

    Not great.

  2. #1022
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    So guess what?

    My "dead" bet of Trump 1.5-2 Point Win in PA, which I couldn't unload for 17c last night (except 300 shares, out of my 4800 or so), is now highly likely to win.

    Trump quietly fell from a 3 point lead to 1.9 point lead overnight and this morning. That will be almost a $5k swing for me if it holds.

    Considering unloading it (if I can) for 88c.

    Some guy put in a bid at 25,000 shares for 0.5c each ($125) and it vanished. Not sure if it sold or if he just gave up and withdrew. I considered doing this myself before I went to sleep. At least I was smart enough to take my positions off sale at the end of the show, saying that I see it trending that way and I don't want to have my shares disappear while I'm sleeping for 17c.

    Not an active market though, so I probably can't unload.

  3. #1023
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    Quote Originally Posted by go_buccos View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by go_buccos View Post
    The above update was from 10/17.

    11/4 Pinny update/comparison as of 6:30 PM CST:

    EC Winner: Trump -162/Harris +141

    Popular Vote: Trump +271/Harris -326

    Arizona: Trump -339
    Florida: Trump -2500
    Georgia: Trump -211
    Iowa: (just added) Trump -605
    Michigan: Harris -205
    Nevada: Trump -135
    New Hampshire: Harris -534
    North Carolina: Trump -226
    Pennsylvania: Trump -131
    Virginia: Harris -1206
    Wisconsin: Harris -147

    Some other markets just added:

    Democrat total states won: 21.5 O -162
    Republican total states won: 29.5 U -194

    Trump wins BOTH MI and PA: +245
    Trump wins BOTH MI and WI: +259
    Harris scoops Rust Belt: (PA/MI/WI) +156
    Trump scoops AZ/NV/NC/GA: +115
    Trump scoops all 7 battlegrounds: +386

    Harris OVER 51.999% popular vote: +150

    Record turnout according to uselectionatlas.org: YES -172

    County markets:

    Bucks, PA: Harris -228
    Clark, NV (Vegas) OFF
    Erie, PA: Trump -142
    Kent, MI: (Grand Rapids) Harris -230
    Macomb, MI: (Detroit burbs) OFF
    Maricopa, AZ: (Phoenix) Harris -121
    Pinellas, FL: (Tampa Bay) Trump -331

    Values as I see them at these prices:

    MONSTER value: (3 units each)

    Trump -605 in Iowa. (It opened yesterday something like -408 so best value already gone. That poll was complete quackery. I would bet it up to -900)
    Trump -135 in Nevada. (Jon Ralston knows his shit and he's pretty much called it for Trump already)
    Harris +184 in North Carolina (That asshat tranny-loving GOP guv candidate has a legit chance to cost him the entire state)

    Solid value: (2 units each)

    Trump popular vote +271
    Trump +837 in Virginia
    Trump to scoop NC/NV/AZ/GA: NO -139. (See above)
    Record turnout YES -172

    Thin value: (1 unit each)

    Harris EC Winner +141
    Trump +121 in Wisconsin
    Trump +167 in Michigan
    Harris scoops PA/WI/MI: YES +156
    Trump wins all 7 battlegrounds: NO -501 (again this is mostly due to the NC situation)

    Really not sure why the market has moved so heavily for Harris in Michigan in the last week. It was -110/-110 a few days ago.

    Gonna be a VERY interesting day tomorrow.

    Good luck to all who have wagered.
    Results:

    Monster: 2-1, +3u
    Solid: 1-3, -2.8u
    Thin: 2-3, -4.54u

    Total: 5-7, -4.34u

    Not great.
    im still here fag. got something to say?


    wtf you are laying 25/1 and 6/1 ? you called me a fish huh lol

    why would anyone ever lay 25/1 on ANYTHING??


    I GLANCED AT YOUR POST THEN RE-READ

    okay you didnt lay 25/1

    my bad

     
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      go_buccos: Hindsight of course but eating the record turnout chalk was extremely fishy. I'm still stunned by the NC result.

  4. #1024
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    Quote Originally Posted by VaughnP View Post
    Betting markets have started trending back towards Trump. If you were planning on waiting for better odds, it seriously might not happen. Normally a convention bounce even for terrible candidates is a given, but with this clusterfuck it's not.

    These polls from a couple weeks ago are from the most accurate pollster in 2020 - even they still had a liberal bias of around 2 points on average. The only ones that came even close were Trafalgar and the TIPP polls. Reading through the bias of the latest polls still has the math come out to the same thing as these - Trump is very likely polling ahead of her in the popular vote by somewhere around 1.5 points.

    https://twitter.com/atlas_intel/status/1817307787761737763
    This was in August before they were even given any credit on X.

    Guess who the most accurate pollster turned out to be again?

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    Quote Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    There has to be a lot of mathematically minded people now looking at the 81 million votes Joe got in 2020.

    Trump got 72 mil this time, just 2 mil under his 2020 total.

    Harris got 67 mil which is a whopping 14 mil under what Biden got in 2020.

    The 81 mil is way out of whack. Biden broke the record at that time by like 15 mil votes. Where the hell did that many extra votes come from?

    It’s a mystery for now. But I’m sure people will be trying to solve it.
    Name:  1730909303291755.jpg
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    Yep they can rig it when they want to. Nobody liked Biden. Bernie was crushing him.

  6. #1026
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    Quote Originally Posted by zealanddonk View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    There has to be a lot of mathematically minded people now looking at the 81 million votes Joe got in 2020.

    Trump got 72 mil this time, just 2 mil under his 2020 total.

    Harris got 67 mil which is a whopping 14 mil under what Biden got in 2020.

    The 81 mil is way out of whack. Biden broke the record at that time by like 15 mil votes. Where the hell did that many extra votes come from?

    It’s a mystery for now. But I’m sure people will be trying to solve it.

    There isnt much of a mystery here.

    in 2020 Biden voters were people were concerned about Trump, hated Covid and wanted a change.
    This time around Covid is effectively gone, between 15-18 million* young people didnt vote, didnt like the idea of Harris, and werent as concerned about how things are going.


    Harris did not engage younger voters particularly well, so they stayed home.
    Tim Walz was a reasonable enough choice but didnt shine as such.

    The Democrats needed to change horse much earier, in a clearer manner, pick someone who appeared younger than Walz and engage much better.


    *From the initial information I have seen, this may change.
    The problem with your analysis is the under 30 vote fell out in record numbers in 2024. But they weren’t as keen on Harris as Biden. Biden won the under 30 crowd by 24 points, Harris just 13 points.
    POKER FAG ALERT! FOR BLOW JOBS SEE SLOPPY JOE, SONATINE AND BCR.

  7. #1027
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    Quote Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by zealanddonk View Post


    There isnt much of a mystery here.

    in 2020 Biden voters were people were concerned about Trump, hated Covid and wanted a change.
    This time around Covid is effectively gone, between 15-18 million* young people didnt vote, didnt like the idea of Harris, and werent as concerned about how things are going.


    Harris did not engage younger voters particularly well, so they stayed home.
    Tim Walz was a reasonable enough choice but didnt shine as such.

    The Democrats needed to change horse much earier, in a clearer manner, pick someone who appeared younger than Walz and engage much better.


    *From the initial information I have seen, this may change.
    The problem with your analysis is the under 30 vote fell out in record numbers in 2024. But they weren’t as keen on Harris as Biden. Biden won the under 30 crowd by 24 points, Harris just 13 points.

    What the fuck is hard to understand? I was literally relieved Trump won decisively so it could put the election lies nonsense to bed, but I keep seeing these wrong stats that are missing still to be counted millions of votes that will be added turned into the typical conspiracy shit.

    You people can’t be happy with the win. You’re addicted to conspiracies. This election will far exceed 2016 which is more similar to this election. More than the percentage of added population over the last 8 years.

    2020 when everyone was sitting around and mailed ballots was a unique one off. Look at each state and how many mailed ballots they had pre-election in 2020.

    And when it’s all counted, it will still be a historically high election turnout this time by modern election standards. Far surpassing 2016. Yet no one says where did this extra 13 million Trump votes since 2016 come from? We are at 60% reported in Ca. 70% in Oregon and Az. 60% in Washington. There is still 7% out in NY state.

    This is the rare election of late that’s been decided on election night with certainty, thus they aren’t burning the midnight oil counting. I thought you were a numbers guy? Look at the linear progression of election turnout by election and realize the one where everyone was sitting at home and facing a once in a lifetime pandemic and mailed ballots might be the reason for slightly higher turnout.

    Besides being mailed ballots, think of all the impediments one might face during a normal year to voting. Get off work and have to deal with an hour commute and then stand in line for hours. If you aren't passionate, fuck that. Even people that were working like nurses and first responders could deal with no traffic and get to polls easily and face far less waits. There are dozens of logical reasons why that election was an outlier to normal pain of voting.

    Take the win.

     
    Comments
      
      zealanddonk: A few maga were expecting it to be 100% or even 105% for Trump hurr hurr
      
      big dick: .

  8. #1028
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    Quote Originally Posted by BCR View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post

    The problem with your analysis is the under 30 vote fell out in record numbers in 2024. But they weren’t as keen on Harris as Biden. Biden won the under 30 crowd by 24 points, Harris just 13 points.

    What the fuck is hard to understand? I was literally relieved Trump won decisively so it could put the election lies nonsense to bed, but I keep seeing these wrong stats that are missing still to be counted millions of votes that will be added turned into the typical conspiracy shit.

    You people can’t be happy with the win. You’re addicted to conspiracies. This election will far exceed 2016 which is more similar to this election. More than the percentage of added population over the last 8 years.

    2020 when everyone was sitting around and mailed ballots was a unique one off. Look at each state and how many mailed ballots they had pre-election in 2020.

    And when it’s all counted, it will still be a historically high election turnout this time by modern election standards. Far surpassing 2016. Yet no one says where did this extra 13 million Trump votes since 2016 come from? We are at 60% reported in Ca. 70% in Oregon and Az. 60% in Washington. There is still 7% out in NY state.

    This is the rare election of late that’s been decided on election night with certainty, thus they aren’t burning the midnight oil counting. I thought you were a numbers guy? Look at the linear progression of election turnout by election and realize the one where everyone was sitting at home and facing a once in a lifetime pandemic and mailed ballots might be the reason for slightly higher turnout.

    Besides being mailed ballots, think of all the impediments one might face during a normal year to voting. Get off work and have to deal with an hour commute and then stand in line for hours. If you aren't passionate, fuck that. Even people that were working like nurses and first responders could deal with no traffic and get to polls easily and face far less waits. There are dozens of logical reasons why that election was an outlier to normal pain of voting.

    Take the win.


    bro youre arguing with an actual retarded person, you realize that right? like i have nothing but respect for you but its going to be a tortuous 4 years for you if youre going to get frustrated when the dumbest goldfish in the bowl stubbornly refuses to do math.

     
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      BCR: True. You know me. I don’t hate people who vote differently. Hate the conspiracy culture.
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

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    Libbrains need to get that we will not rest until the 2020 ballot scam is exposed.

    To bcr it’s spelled MORENO. ROFL.

    To fattie, go get a snack, we will not rest.
    Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. We didn't pass it to our children in the bloodstream. It must be fought for, protected, and handed on for them to do the same.

    Ronald Reagan

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    Quote Originally Posted by splitthis View Post
    Libbrains need to get that we will not rest until the 2020 ballot scam is exposed.

    To bcr it’s spelled MORENO. ROFL.

    To fattie, go get a snack, we will not rest.
    Greasy car salesmen. I have never met someone who owned a car dealership who wasn’t wholly corrupt. Truly the only result that bothered me, though it was predictable .

  11. #1031
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    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by BCR View Post


    What the fuck is hard to understand? I was literally relieved Trump won decisively so it could put the election lies nonsense to bed, but I keep seeing these wrong stats that are missing still to be counted millions of votes that will be added turned into the typical conspiracy shit.

    You people can’t be happy with the win. You’re addicted to conspiracies. This election will far exceed 2016 which is more similar to this election. More than the percentage of added population over the last 8 years.

    2020 when everyone was sitting around and mailed ballots was a unique one off. Look at each state and how many mailed ballots they had pre-election in 2020.

    And when it’s all counted, it will still be a historically high election turnout this time by modern election standards. Far surpassing 2016. Yet no one says where did this extra 13 million Trump votes since 2016 come from? We are at 60% reported in Ca. 70% in Oregon and Az. 60% in Washington. There is still 7% out in NY state.

    This is the rare election of late that’s been decided on election night with certainty, thus they aren’t burning the midnight oil counting. I thought you were a numbers guy? Look at the linear progression of election turnout by election and realize the one where everyone was sitting at home and facing a once in a lifetime pandemic and mailed ballots might be the reason for slightly higher turnout.

    Besides being mailed ballots, think of all the impediments one might face during a normal year to voting. Get off work and have to deal with an hour commute and then stand in line for hours. If you aren't passionate, fuck that. Even people that were working like nurses and first responders could deal with no traffic and get to polls easily and face far less waits. There are dozens of logical reasons why that election was an outlier to normal pain of voting.

    Take the win.


    bro youre arguing with an actual retarded person, you realize that right? like i have nothing but respect for you but its going to be a tortuous 4 years for you if youre going to get frustrated when the dumbest goldfish in the bowl stubbornly refuses to do math.
    It’s no wonder you are a failed gambler, sonatard. You can’t do fucking math.
    POKER FAG ALERT! FOR BLOW JOBS SEE SLOPPY JOE, SONATINE AND BCR.

  12. #1032
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    Quote Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post



    bro youre arguing with an actual retarded person, you realize that right? like i have nothing but respect for you but its going to be a tortuous 4 years for you if youre going to get frustrated when the dumbest goldfish in the bowl stubbornly refuses to do math.

    https://pokerfraudalert.com/forum/sh...ion-PnL-thread


    please, show me your election results.
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

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    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post


    https://pokerfraudalert.com/forum/sh...ion-PnL-thread


    please, show me your election results.
    Let’s pretend that the 14 million extra votes in 2020 were real people. Why would that large of a group, that thought it was absolutely imperative to beat Trump in 2020, not show in 2024?

    Do you think it says anything about the way the country was run in the last four years? IT SPEAKS VOLUMES ABOUT THE WAY DEMOCRATS RAN THE COUNTRY.

    Why was that group not mobilized? 14 million of your voters, if they really exist, just said “Hey, go fuck yourself?”

    The democrat party let 14 million voters get away?

    Those 14 million voters either don’t exist, or….the democrat party failed them so miserably that they stayed home. That’s a hell of a statement about your party, sonatard.
    POKER FAG ALERT! FOR BLOW JOBS SEE SLOPPY JOE, SONATINE AND BCR.

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    Plutonium sonatine's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post


    https://pokerfraudalert.com/forum/sh...ion-PnL-thread


    please, show me your election results.

    lol awwwwwwwl
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

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    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post


    lol awwwwwwwl
    I always know when you’re stuck like a pig.
    POKER FAG ALERT! FOR BLOW JOBS SEE SLOPPY JOE, SONATINE AND BCR.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post

    lol awwwwwwwl
    I always know when you’re stuck like a pig.

    i literally just posted you my returns for election night gambling. please do the same if youre not too busy warning your sheriff cousin about the guy on the internet who is paying black trans junkie whores to have sex on your grave.
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

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    Quote Originally Posted by big dick View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by go_buccos View Post

    Results:

    Monster: 2-1, +3u
    Solid: 1-3, -2.8u
    Thin: 2-3, -4.54u

    Total: 5-7, -4.34u

    Not great.
    im still here fag. got something to say?


    wtf you are laying 25/1 and 6/1 ? you called me a fish huh lol

    why would anyone ever lay 25/1 on ANYTHING??


    I GLANCED AT YOUR POST THEN RE-READ

    okay you didnt lay 25/1

    my bad
    Did they settle yet? I mean it’s probably going to be lower but it doesn’t sound far off. I was expecting like 135, like 2016 +10. It’s going to be much higher than that.





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    Quote Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post


    https://pokerfraudalert.com/forum/sh...ion-PnL-thread


    please, show me your election results.
    Let’s pretend that the 14 million extra votes in 2020 were real people. Why would that large of a group, that thought it was absolutely imperative to beat Trump in 2020, not show in 2024?

    Do you think it says anything about the way the country was run in the last four years? IT SPEAKS VOLUMES ABOUT THE WAY DEMOCRATS RAN THE COUNTRY.

    Why was that group not mobilized? 14 million of your voters, if they really exist, just said “Hey, go fuck yourself?”

    The democrat party let 14 million voters get away?

    Those 14 million voters either don’t exist, or….the democrat party failed them so miserably that they stayed home. That’s a hell of a statement about your party, sonatard.
    Biden is President and we currently have the Senate

    WHY THE FUCK WOULDNT THEY HAVE RIGGED THIS ONE TOO?

    HOLY SHIT YOU GUYS ARE FUCKED UP IN THE HEAD


    now i see how hitler came into power

    they only had newspapers radio and word of mouth back then


    we are fucked we are all fucked and you are the idiots that fucked ALL OF US

  19. #1039
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    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post

    I always know when you’re stuck like a pig.

    i literally just posted you my returns for election night gambling. please do the same if youre not too busy warning your sheriff cousin about the guy on the internet who is paying black trans junkie whores to have sex on your grave.
    Do you file as a professional gambler?
    POKER FAG ALERT! FOR BLOW JOBS SEE SLOPPY JOE, SONATINE AND BCR.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BCR View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by big dick View Post
    im still here fag. got something to say?


    wtf you are laying 25/1 and 6/1 ? you called me a fish huh lol

    why would anyone ever lay 25/1 on ANYTHING??


    I GLANCED AT YOUR POST THEN RE-READ

    okay you didnt lay 25/1

    my bad
    Did they settle yet? I mean it’s probably going to be lower but it doesn’t sound far off. I was expecting like 135, like 2016 +10. It’s going to be much higher than that.




    They haven't. I was just assuming a loss. Fishy wager for sure in hindsight.

    EDIT: Also, fuck taking this long to count votes, and fuck whoever has a law saying ballots can arrive up until a week after election day and still be counted. With so much early voting available there is zero point zero reason for that.

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