Of course, Nate Silver predicted Hillary Clinton to win by a large margin.
https://twitter.com/twt/status/1823438177836601799
Of course, Nate Silver predicted Hillary Clinton to win by a large margin.
https://twitter.com/twt/status/1823438177836601799
I am repeating myself, but Trump needs to keep the lowest profile possible in August. Let her run up a lead. I said 5 points nationally is reasonable end of month. Then she is the favorite and she will act like the favorite. And she will implode. Trust me, all of a sudden cat lady in her pant suit will start dancing on stage with he bizarre VP, and it will totally backfire in spectacular fashion.Originally Posted by VaughnP
These obviously are not good polls for Trump, they are good numbers for fat white unmarried women, transgender persuaded people, poor, and minorities:
Arizona: Trump vs. Harris vs. Kennedy vs. West vs. Stein
Cook Political Report
Harris 46, Trump 42, Kennedy 7, West 1, Stein 0
Harris
+4
Georgia: Trump vs. Harris vs. Kennedy vs. West vs. Stein
Cook Political Report
Trump 46, Harris 46, Kennedy 4, West 1, Stein 1
Tie
Michigan: Trump vs. Harris vs. Kennedy vs. West vs. Stein
Cook Political Report
Harris 46, Trump 44, Kennedy 6, Stein 0, West 1
Harris
+2
Nevada: Trump vs. Harris vs. Kennedy vs. West vs. Stein
Cook Political Report
Trump 47, Harris 42, Kennedy 5, Stein 1, West 0
Trump
+5
North Carolina: Trump vs. Harris vs. Kennedy vs. West vs. Stein
Cook Political Report
Trump 44, Harris 46, Kennedy 4, Stein 1, West 0
Harris
+2
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Harris vs. Kennedy vs. West vs. Stein
Cook Political Report
Harris 48, Trump 43, Kennedy 5, Stein 0, West 0
Harris
+5
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Harris vs. Kennedy vs. West vs. Stein
Cook Political Report
Harris 48, Trump 43, Kennedy 5, Stein 0, West 1
Harris
+5
Florida: Trump vs. Harris
Florida Atlantic University
Trump 50, Harris 47
Trump
+3
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
If Trump wants to win, and I believe he does, he needs to shun this unity bullshit. Or running on the issues, which is always a loser, see Mitt Romney.
He needs to go Dark Maga.
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
We live in a perpetual present. Obviously you nap it out
This is modern life 2020’s. 1 month ago Trump came within an inch of a red mist yet it is completely forgotten.
Animals in the forest behave this way too. No memory
Just had a thought.
America is like an Alzheimer’s patient who can’t recognize their children. Show America Kamala Harris and it’s like seeing someone for the first time. No memory.
We live in a perpetual present.
JD Vance talking about whether Walz kissed or shook his wife’s hand. Trump just finished the Stormy Daniel’s trial. He had a mistress while Baron’s mom was pregnant. Like wtf dude. Vance has no memory but the public forgot too… so it plays kind of.
I read this the other day but didn't have time to think about it and respond. The notion of the perpetual present. It felt both right and wrong all at once and I had to think about it. It threw me because usually you think of living in the present as healthy. So much depression and baggage is associated with dwelling on the past. I like the Alzheimer's analogy because it's closer to that. An unhealthy perpetual present. That feels right. An involuntary unhealthy condition because we have lost the ability to recall.
The brain is like the ocean. We know a few things, but largely uncharted beneath the surface. Pretty much the rest of the body is fairly mapped out. Very few mysteries below the neck, but the brain is still mostly mystery. You read a lot of things that will say something like the hippocampus is thought to be responsible for....
Is thought to be is the key.
Guesswork. Educated guesswork, but still guesswork. We've mastered how to flood dopamine receptors and get people to click on shit and gamble through trial and error over 50 years, but that's almost Pavlonian level shit. Guys click a girls pic abd they get thumbs up and get a dopamine rush. My friend agreed with my comment and that makes me feel happy.
We don't know far more than we know about the brain. Your post reminded me of an ongoing conversation I have been having with a buddy of mine for probably close to a decade. Sometimes we are discussing young people. Other times just modern culture. Art. Culture post internet.
The general theme being we are losing something essential when we remove the process of seeking out information. For any other part of the body use it or lose it is just self-evident.
You'll see recommendations for the aging populace to do crossword puzzles or something, but little that addresses young people and what we aren't developing that we once did.
We don't really yet understand it.
I think of how often and how frustrating things were growing up that were on the tip of your tongue. A name. Song lyrics. What guy am I thinking about who used to play 3rd base for the Yankees when I was a kid with the mustache? Who was that girl you introduced me to that worked with your buddy with the muscle car at that place? Which place? That job you had when we were 16, I think it was a convenience store. Just random shit that got stuck on the tip of your tongue and you couldn't quite pull up.
Not curing world hunger or cancer. Just shit that made you frustrated you couldn't pull up instantly. If I got stuck it would interfere with my sleep. Just random things that required thinking really hard. Then you'd have to let it go because it wasn't coming and often it would pop into your head only after you quit dwelling on it.
I think anyone our age recalls that and remembers that process. And depending on what you were stuck on, it could be a week to resolve. You might not be able to frame the question to resolve it. Things you couldn't grab an encyclopedia and answer the next day.
My brain is always going, and it drove me crazy. Like I'd get a random thought at 4AM and get pissed and need to know this useless thing. Not because it was important, but because my brain wouldn't pop it out.
In almost all things, including the body, the process is where the vast majority of the benefit is derived. You go for a run or hike or play a game of tennis. Who wins or getting back to your car isn't the benefit. The process is what is healthy and you're building all the endurance and developing everything from the process.
I think about how that tip of the tongue frustration almost never happens anymore. Everything is a click away. I can't remember a person, I text a buddy, oh I will look at facebook and message someone and ask who you mean and they'll know. I can find almost anything in a minute. You can answer almost any question with minimal effort. Someone under 35 hardly ever had that sensation for beyond 5 minutes.
I wonder why late 20th century writers were so much worse than early 20th century writers. And both worse than 19th century writers. Why modern music is so weak when kids can take in every great artist instantly, and yet produce largely shit. Why our founders, often with little formal education, wrote with an insight completely lacking from all our modern Ivy grifters.
I think so much is gained from the process. The harder the process, something is built and developed and valued. Seeking out information developed something we don't yet understand.
I think that's true of almost all things, and now that perpetual present you speak of is really just a mental blankness borne of poor recall and a byproduct of something we no longer develop in young people. And even those of us who at one time developed it have quit using it to the degree we once did and find ourselves in a state of collective mental atrophy. What you knew just 3 years ago is quickly forgotten. Everything is dopamine. Quick fix shit. That part of our brain is overdeveloped like the arms of a young wheelchair bound kid, and everything else is like his atrophied legs.
When it becomes easier to do anything, we lose something gained from the struggle and process almost every time.
Flood people with enough nonsense, add in mental atrophy, and you can reintroduce Kamala and 90% of the country can't recall why she seemed like an idiot 3 years ago before Biden locked her in her office.
This is a sign of Mental illness....
I read this the other day but didn't have time to think about it and respond. The notion of the perpetual present. It felt both right and wrong all at once and I had to think about it. It threw me because usually you think of living in the present as healthy. So much depression and baggage is associated with dwelling on the past. I like the Alzheimer's analogy because it's closer to that. An unhealthy perpetual present. That feels right. An involuntary unhealthy condition because we have lost the ability to recall.
The brain is like the ocean. We know a few things, but largely uncharted beneath the surface. Pretty much the rest of the body is fairly mapped out. Very few mysteries below the neck, but the brain is still mostly mystery. You read a lot of things that will say something like the hippocampus is thought to be responsible for....
Is thought to be is the key.
Guesswork. Educated guesswork, but still guesswork. We've mastered how to flood dopamine receptors and get people to click on shit and gamble through trial and error over 50 years, but that's almost Pavlonian level shit. Guys click a girls pic abd they get thumbs up and get a dopamine rush. My friend agreed with my comment and that makes me feel happy.
We don't know far more than we know about the brain. Your post reminded me of an ongoing conversation I have been having with a buddy of mine for probably close to a decade. Sometimes we are discussing young people. Other times just modern culture. Art. Culture post internet.
The general theme being we are losing something essential when we remove the process of seeking out information. For any other part of the body use it or lose it is just self-evident.
You'll see recommendations for the aging populace to do crossword puzzles or something, but little that addresses young people and what we aren't developing that we once did.
We don't really yet understand it.
I think of how often and how frustrating things were growing up that were on the tip of your tongue. A name. Song lyrics. What guy am I thinking about who used to play 3rd base for the Yankees when I was a kid with the mustache? Who was that girl you introduced me to that worked with your buddy with the muscle car at that place? Which place? That job you had when we were 16, I think it was a convenience store. Just random shit that got stuck on the tip of your tongue and you couldn't quite pull up.
Not curing world hunger or cancer. Just shit that made you frustrated you couldn't pull up instantly. If I got stuck it would interfere with my sleep. Just random things that required thinking really hard. Then you'd have to let it go because it wasn't coming and often it would pop into your head only after you quit dwelling on it.
I think anyone our age recalls that and remembers that process. And depending on what you were stuck on, it could be a week to resolve. You might not be able to frame the question to resolve it. Things you couldn't grab an encyclopedia and answer the next day.
My brain is always going, and it drove me crazy. Like I'd get a random thought at 4AM and get pissed and need to know this useless thing. Not because it was important, but because my brain wouldn't pop it out.
In almost all things, including the body, the process is where the vast majority of the benefit is derived. You go for a run or hike or play a game of tennis. Who wins or getting back to your car isn't the benefit. The process is what is healthy and you're building all the endurance and developing everything from the process.
I think about how that tip of the tongue frustration almost never happens anymore. Everything is a click away. I can't remember a person, I text a buddy, oh I will look at facebook and message someone and ask who you mean and they'll know. I can find almost anything in a minute. You can answer almost any question with minimal effort. Someone under 35 hardly ever had that sensation for beyond 5 minutes.
I wonder why late 20th century writers were so much worse than early 20th century writers. And both worse than 19th century writers. Why modern music is so weak when kids can take in every great artist instantly, and yet produce largely shit. Why our founders, often with little formal education, wrote with an insight completely lacking from all our modern Ivy grifters.
I think so much is gained from the process. The harder the process, something is built and developed and valued. Seeking out information developed something we don't yet understand.
I think that's true of almost all things, and now that perpetual present you speak of is really just a mental blankness borne of poor recall and a byproduct of something we no longer develop in young people. And even those of us who at one time developed it have quit using it to the degree we once did and find ourselves in a state of collective mental atrophy. What you knew just 3 years ago is quickly forgotten. Everything is dopamine. Quick fix shit. That part of our brain is overdeveloped like the arms of a young wheelchair bound kid, and everything else is like his atrophied legs.
When it becomes easier to do anything, we lose something gained from the struggle and process almost every time.
Flood people with enough nonsense, add in mental atrophy, and you can reintroduce Kamala and 90% of the country can't recall why she seemed like an idiot 3 years ago before Biden locked her in her office.
glgl
My brain is always going, and it drove me crazy. Like I'd get a random thought at 4AM and get pissed and need to know this useless thing. Not because it was important, but because my brain wouldn't pop it out.
It's funny you say that, I guess I am getting old, but I wake up in the 3am hour and random thoughts just enter my mind. Like what was my phone number when I was like 12, or what was my third grade teacher's name. I literally have to get up out of bed because I become almost obsessed. It's an infrequent occurrence, but it does happen. As the day goes on, say by the 10am hour I am like that was pretty stupid to give a shit about something so meaningless, but at 3am in the dark it makes sense. I try not to drink anymore, but when my mind races like that in the middle of the night the only thing that has a calming effect is some form of alcohol.
Trump appears to have weathered the Kamala surge. I expect he will be anywhere from 3-5 points down after the DNC next week. He can make it up though pretty easily in the debates when she gets off the teleprompter. People forget just how unlikable she is. Give it time. If she can only be a couple points up after this 100% media coronation, you know this is a fleeting moment.
General Election: Trump vs. Harris
FOX News
Harris 49, Trump 50
Trump
+1
General Election: Trump vs. Harris vs. Kennedy vs. Stein vs. West
FOX News
Harris 45, Trump 45, Kennedy 6, Stein 1, West 1
Tie
Trump has definitely stopped the bleed. He is probably a point or two down which is fine, Harris needs to be close to 4 points nationally to take the Electoral College. Keep in mind Clinton won the popular vote by 3.5 points and Biden took it by around 4 points. I am telling you, Kamala's dancing on stage at the DNC with her fake smile will backfire. Whatever bump she gets will last maybe a week, if that.
General Election: Trump vs. Harris
Rasmussen Reports
Harris 45, Trump 49
Trump
+4
General Election: Trump vs. Harris vs. Kennedy vs. Stein vs. West
Rasmussen Reports
Harris 44, Trump 48, Kennedy 4, Stein 1, West 0
Trump
+4
Michigan: Trump vs. Harris
Fabrizio/Anzalone
Harris 48, Trump 48
Tie
Michigan: Trump vs. Harris vs. Kennedy vs. West vs. Stein
Fabrizio/Anzalone
Harris 43, Trump 45, Kennedy 6, Stein 1, West 1
Trump
+2
Things looks like they settled down.
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Harris
Emerson
Trump 49, Harris 48
Trump
+1
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Harris vs. Kennedy vs. West vs. Stein
Emerson
Harris 47, Trump 47, Kennedy 3, Stein 0, West 0
Tie
These polls make no sense whatsoever. How can Trump be down 2 points in NC and up 4 in Georgia? Then up in Nevada in a state not carried by Repubs in 20 years. I think there is a 0% chance Trump loses NC. And 0% chance he wins Nevada. I am trying to find a US book that will take NC money for Trump, that has to be the easiest bet ever.
Georgia: Trump vs. Harris
NY Times/Siena
Trump 50, Harris 46
Trump
+4
Nevada: Trump vs. Harris
NY Times/Siena
Trump 48, Harris 47
Trump
+1
North Carolina: Trump vs. Harris
NY Times/Siena
Trump 47, Harris 49
Harris
+2
Trumps losing North Carolina..
https://twitter.com/ArgoJournal/status/1824794795471970360
zero chance this person doesnt lurk this site
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
Take a page from PLOP’s political wagering scrapbook, tgull. Plop gave zero shits about sides. He just saw the board clearly. That is his edge imo.
Whether apathy is a millenial thing or simply a quality you work at and cultivate idk. Works for him.
zero chance this person doesnt lurk this site
Yeah, but you have not been following the fact Trump wants to abolish the Fed, which he can do relatively easily. He just needs a simple majority in both chambers, its not like its a constitutional amendment. I am not sure why people think the Fed is some type of sacrosanct entity. It's a few people who think they are smarter than everyone else on the economy. They were smart this last go around taking a dozen eggs from .99 to 3.49. But whatever, most Fed Presidents are pro choice and that is what matters.
i almost want to see what would happen when trump fired the economist money nerds and just started firing off policy changes willy nilly.
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
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