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Thread: Official Presidential Polling and Odds thread

  1. #381
    Plutonium sonatine's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post


    it reinforces the basic assertion that zero point zero people who didnt vote for trump last time are voting for him this time while a lot of people who did have just plain had enough of his schtick.


    that said this really does all feel a lot like the confidence i felt about hillary in 2016 so id never place a bet here.

    We all have moments we live IRL.

    In 2010 when Ted K died and it was all a formality that Martha Coakley was going to take his seat and Obama care was going to sail through the senate. This was the leading logic and in the peoples republic of Massachusetts how could you expect anything different? Well the week of the election the change was palpable. Walking around town it was the talk of the nation and people were saying “No way im voting for her….. are you?? Yeah no way”. honestly its the only time in all my years in the north east I ever felt that people were going to step up and do thee right thing. Ended up being a bloodbath and Obamacare was passed but not in anywhere close to original form.


    The only other time I saw something like this was in 2016. Took a trip up past west palm beach into central florida. There was not a Hillary sign anywhere to be found. Keep in mind this was before Florida became solidly red. Polls had Hillary winning florida handily. Anyone who shut the TV off and just took a good look around and talked to people knew there was just no shot. She might win the election but zero shot she wins the state.

    I don't know anyone in Michigan or Ohio. I know a few people in Pa and Wi. Admittedly my Pa people say its a coin flip and the trump act has worn thin. My Wisconsin friends tell me its over - Trump in a landslide. The few interviews and many videos of the unintelligent word salads have got her labeled as stupid. I ask “are you sure” and its all the same old story of they dont know anyone who is voting for Harris….. and there are a lot of teachers in this group.




    'Don't Underestimate Joe Biden's Ability to Fuck Things Up' - Obama
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

  2. #382
    Gold VaughnP's Avatar
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    https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1838274005310058561

    https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1838286300002324831

    https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1838300946268348639

    https://twitter.com/EricLDaugh/status/1838374991252906276


    When people try to knock Rasmussen as being Republican biased, despite the fact that they have consistently been one of the most accurate pollsters, there's this:

    https://twitter.com/chriswithans/status/1838384698479014359

    Mark Mitchell, like Nate Cohn, is admitting that his own state polls are heavily Dem oversampled. They can't get working class and rural white voters to respond.

  3. #383

  4. #384
    Hurricane Expert tgull's Avatar
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    ON POINT POLITICS

    UPDATED: SEP. 19, 12:00 AM EST

    ELECTION BY LESTER TELLEZ, OWNER OF ON POINT POLITICS | WEBSITE CREATED BY BRANDON PYLE

    CLICK TO GET ESTIMATED STATE MARGINS AND TURNOUT

    Trump 85%
    Harris 15%

  5. #385
    Hurricane Expert tgull's Avatar
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    Michigan: Trump vs. Harris USA Today/Suffolk
    Harris 48, Trump 45

    Harris +3

    Nevada: Trump vs. Harris Noble Predictive Insights
    Harris 48, Trump 47

    Harris +1

    North Carolina: Trump vs. Harris Elon University
    Trump 45, Harris 46

    Harris +1

     
    Comments
      
      country978: this is a good thread tgull - thank you for all the updates

  6. #386
    Hurricane Expert tgull's Avatar
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    There are terrible polls for Harris. The worm is starting to turn.


    Tuesday, September 24
    National: Trump vs. Harris Quinnipiac
    Harris 48, Trump 48

    Tie

    National: Trump vs. Harris CNN*
    Harris 48, Trump 47

    Harris +1


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  8. #388
    Silver cleatus's Avatar
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    u sure about dis guy

    Name:  pfa yelling at kids.JPG
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  9. #389
    Gold The Boz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post
    There are terrible polls for Harris. The worm is starting to turn.


    Tuesday, September 24
    National: Trump vs. Harris Quinnipiac
    Harris 48, Trump 48

    Tie

    National: Trump vs. Harris CNN*
    Harris 48, Trump 47

    Harris +1

    I refuse to believe the swing state polls have Harris leading when the national polls are this close. Or she has a bigger National lead IF the swing states are correct.

    One or the other is way off.

  10. #390
    Hurricane Expert tgull's Avatar
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    Wednesday, September 25
    Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Harris Muhlenberg College
    Harris 48, Trump 48

    Tie

  11. #391
    Hurricane Expert tgull's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Boz View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post
    There are terrible polls for Harris. The worm is starting to turn.


    Tuesday, September 24
    National: Trump vs. Harris Quinnipiac
    Harris 48, Trump 48

    Tie

    National: Trump vs. Harris CNN*
    Harris 48, Trump 47

    Harris +1

    I refuse to believe the swing state polls have Harris leading when the national polls are this close. Or she has a bigger National lead IF the swing states are correct.

    One or the other is way off.
    The national polls are always going to be skewed given the Democratic density of CA and NY. Effectively, if the Dem in presidential election if north of 4 points they are going to win. Below 3 points it tilts to the Republican. Between 3 and 4, well its a coin toss. Right now the poll averages say she is up nationally between 2 and 3 which means its a lean Trump.

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  14. #394
    Hurricane Expert tgull's Avatar
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    Trump is going to sweep the South and Arizona. It's done. It comes down to the rust belt. I believe Trump will win Wisconsin going away. Not even close:


    North Carolina: Trump vs. Harris Fabrizio/Anzalone
    Trump 50, Harris 47

    Trump +3

  15. #395
    Gold VaughnP's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post
    Trump is going to sweep the South and Arizona. It's done. It comes down to the rust belt. I believe Trump will win Wisconsin going away. Not even close:


    North Carolina: Trump vs. Harris Fabrizio/Anzalone
    Trump 50, Harris 47

    Trump +3
    Fabrizio is Trump's primary internal pollster, but that poll was also conducted with Impact Research, a Dem pollster, to try and be neutral for AARP members.

  16. #396
    Gold VaughnP's Avatar
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    Name:  32C9B82D-0FEC-4BD2-AC47-8789F3F711DC.png
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    The two polls that have her up just released national polls showing tied and +1. Pennsylvania voted to the right of the nation +3 in the last two elections. The more data that comes in the more another polling error is being confirmed.

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  18. #398
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    WTF???????? Tony? Tone?


    PENNSYLVANIA poll �� Trump: 46% (=) [+3] �� Harris: 46% [-1] [+/- from July] Susquehanna


  19. #399
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    Very stinky for Kamala, very stinky. peeeww

    Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Harris Susquehanna
    Harris 46, Trump 46

    Tie

  20. #400
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