Official Presidential Polling and Odds thread

[tgull]

This thread is to discuss polling and odds. If you read my prior posts I said Kamala would have a steady lead about 5 points out of the convention nationally. This is a natural bounce and a media orgasm period for Harris. Obviously it won't last, but here is the landscape as of today, August 10th:

Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Harris
NY Times/Siena
Trump 46, Harris 50
Harris
+4
Michigan: Trump vs. Harris
NY Times/Siena
Harris 50, Trump 46
Harris
+4
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Harris
NY Times/Siena
Harris 50, Trump 46
Harris
+4

Nationally Harris is ahead roughly by a couple points. She has also surged ahead in Polymarket 51-46. Ignore Predictit it's retail traders betting $50, Poly is where the real bettors are.

We will track the polls and betting markets here. I think Trump will surge come October, and will try to find a market where I will I can bet five figures but I am not there yet. Anyway, this will be a thread where we can track polls and markets and presumably make bets. I get a certain portion of posters here are poor, so take your political opinions to one of the other 20 threads on the front page.

As much as I want Trump to win, I will to bet Harris for a payday if I think she will win. Holding my powder for October.

[VaughnP]

Here are the final polls from 2020:



Here are the current polls:





The actual outcome was Biden (thanks to mail in ballot harvesting) 4.5%. Despite the 4.5% edge, the election was actually decided by roughly 43,000 votes - Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia - which I'm sure was all kosher.

Note the obvious extreme bias of the 2020 final libtardian polls. If the election were held today, Trump wins, but it is still close. If the polls have Kamala up .5% it's not unrealistic to suggest she's actually down 4+%. To win the election she's almost surely going to have to have a 6.5% reversal at minimum. Joe was supposedly up 7 points on this date, Hillary 8 points.

Despite the ongoing billion dollar propaganda operation, this is the actual reality of the situation. It's hard to account for Kamala's states of Libtardia bias, so she could possibly be down even more.

Calling bullshit on these NYT polls. No way is she polling better than Biden in these states while being down 7.5 points of where he was in the RCP average. She is not "ahead by a couple of points nationally".

[VaughnP]

Remember this includes these NYT +4 polls and other ridiculous polls, like Bloomberg +11 in Michigan.

[Tellafriend]

everything we are told nowadays -- all of it -- is propaganda.

[Dan Druff]

This is unprecedented territory, and very hard to predict.

The Democratic candidate -- the sitting President -- has been abruptly swapped out for the formerly unpopular VP. That new candidate has been propped up by a coordinated media propaganda campaign, the likes of which has never been seen in this country.

At the same time, we have a very polarizing Republican candidate who got voted out after 1 term, and is back as the candidate again. Also something we've never seen in our lifetime.

Also, the new Democratic candidate is subsisting via tightly controlled teleprompter speeches and the fawning media. She has not stated policy positions (nor is it on her website), and she is prone to being very unlikable (and comes off as ignorant) when off script.

Also, the Republican candidate made an odd VP choice -- picking someone who is young, polarizing, and likely to turn off some independent voters, especially females.


So there's a lot of ways this can go.

Kamala might expose herself as Kamala in the next few months, and it will be game over.

Trump might have a hard time countering what will likely be a 3-month media propaganda blitz against him, which will be far worse and more biased than he ever dealt with when facing Hillary or Biden.

Trump might find out that he was only viable because everyone was so afraid of senile Biden having a second term.

Kamala might find out why she flamed out so badly in the 2020 primary, and see the same occur here. Remember, at one point in 2019, she was considered the favorite to get the nomination, but was the first major candidate to drop out.



It really comes down to the swing states, and whether the media can continue fooling everyone about Kamala. Everyone knows what Trump is. For the independent voters, it becomes a matter of whether they think Kamala is a reasonable person to lead the country (in which case they will pick her over Trump), or if they realize she's a cackling idiot who was elevated as an emergency replacement for Senile Joe (in which case they will go with Trump).

And it's all about the swing states. Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, North Carolina. I think Trump pulls off Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina. I think Kamala wins Michigan and Wisconsin. Pennsylvania should be the decider here. That's why it was a huge mistake for Kamala to pass over Shapiro for Walz. But you know... it's hard to pick a Jewish VP when the loudest people in your party hate the Jews so much.

[VaughnP]

Key things to remember, Biden was polling roughly 7 points ahead in Wisconsin and only ended up winning by a little more than .5 a point.

In my opinion, Kamala is likely actually slightly behind there as well.





Another state that is not getting any attention yet is Virginia. Trump was polling ahead of her and Biden there after the assassination attempt and convention, but there hasn't been any polling done since. He can win without Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Nevada if he wins Virginia. It will be interesting to see new polls. He honestly should have picked Youngkin. He flipped the gubernatorial race with a turnout as high as the 2020 election. He literally got 40% more votes than the 2017 candidate.

[Jayjami]

This is unprecedented territory, and very hard to predict.

The Democratic candidate -- the sitting President -- has been abruptly swapped out for the formerly unpopular VP. That new candidate has been propped up by a coordinated media propaganda campaign, the likes of which has never been seen in this country.

At the same time, we have a very polarizing Republican candidate who got voted out after 1 term, and is back as the candidate again. Also something we've never seen in our lifetime.

Also, the new Democratic candidate is subsisting via tightly controlled teleprompter speeches and the fawning media. She has not stated policy positions (nor is it on her website), and she is prone to being very unlikable (and comes off as ignorant) when off script.

Also, the Republican candidate made an odd VP choice -- picking someone who is young, polarizing, and likely to turn off some independent voters, especially females.


So there's a lot of ways this can go.

Kamala might expose herself as Kamala in the next few months, and it will be game over.

Trump might have a hard time countering what will likely be a 3-month media propaganda blitz against him, which will be far worse and more biased than he ever dealt with when facing Hillary or Biden.

Trump might find out that he was only viable because everyone was so afraid of senile Biden having a second term.

Kamala might find out why she flamed out so badly in the 2020 primary, and see the same occur here. Remember, at one point in 2019, she was considered the favorite to get the nomination, but was the first major candidate to drop out.



It really comes down to the swing states, and whether the media can continue fooling everyone about Kamala. Everyone knows what Trump is. For the independent voters, it becomes a matter of whether they think Kamala is a reasonable person to lead the country (in which case they will pick her over Trump), or if they realize she's a cackling idiot who was elevated as an emergency replacement for Senile Joe (in which case they will go with Trump).

And it's all about the swing states. Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, North Carolina. I think Trump pulls off Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina. I think Kamala wins Michigan and Wisconsin. Pennsylvania should be the decider here. That's why it was a huge mistake for Kamala to pass over Shapiro for Walz. But you know... it's hard to pick a Jewish VP when the loudest people in your party hate the Jews so much.

Agree with everything you said. She couldn’t pick Shapiro though. One of the unwritten rules of the Constitution is that Jews can’t be president. Lieberman was a token nominee in a year the Dems were sure to lose. Just like Geraldine Ferraro was.

[garrett]

This is unprecedented territory, and very hard to predict.

The Democratic candidate -- the sitting President -- has been abruptly swapped out for the formerly unpopular VP. That new candidate has been propped up by a coordinated media propaganda campaign, the likes of which has never been seen in this country.

At the same time, we have a very polarizing Republican candidate who got voted out after 1 term, and is back as the candidate again. Also something we've never seen in our lifetime.

Also, the new Democratic candidate is subsisting via tightly controlled teleprompter speeches and the fawning media. She has not stated policy positions (nor is it on her website), and she is prone to being very unlikable (and comes off as ignorant) when off script.

Also, the Republican candidate made an odd VP choice -- picking someone who is young, polarizing, and likely to turn off some independent voters, especially females.


So there's a lot of ways this can go.

Kamala might expose herself as Kamala in the next few months, and it will be game over.

Trump might have a hard time countering what will likely be a 3-month media propaganda blitz against him, which will be far worse and more biased than he ever dealt with when facing Hillary or Biden.

Trump might find out that he was only viable because everyone was so afraid of senile Biden having a second term.

Kamala might find out why she flamed out so badly in the 2020 primary, and see the same occur here. Remember, at one point in 2019, she was considered the favorite to get the nomination, but was the first major candidate to drop out.



It really comes down to the swing states, and whether the media can continue fooling everyone about Kamala. Everyone knows what Trump is. For the independent voters, it becomes a matter of whether they think Kamala is a reasonable person to lead the country (in which case they will pick her over Trump), or if they realize she's a cackling idiot who was elevated as an emergency replacement for Senile Joe (in which case they will go with Trump).

And it's all about the swing states. Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, North Carolina. I think Trump pulls off Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina. I think Kamala wins Michigan and Wisconsin. Pennsylvania should be the decider here. That's why it was a huge mistake for Kamala to pass over Shapiro for Walz. But you know... it's hard to pick a Jewish VP when the loudest people in your party hate the Jews so much.

Florida

You have purposefully left out the Most important Swing State in the United States with a Massive basket of Electoral College Votes, which takes multiple other States to offset if you lost Florida. The good news is Donald Trump likely will NOT Lose Florida and all of them Electoral College Votes and so won't need to make them up in other States like Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Trump actually should win this election shot in the face and all

[tgull]

This is unprecedented territory, and very hard to predict.

At the same time, we have a very polarizing Republican candidate who got voted out after 1 term, and is back as the candidate again. Also something we've never seen in our lifetime.

Well you are part right. There has been a similar precedent. Nixon was VP from 1952-1960 and effectively had the presidential election stolen in Chicago in 1960, that is almost universally agreed upon. Nixon became very bitter, much like Trump. He did something so incredibly stupid and ran for Governor of California. He was crushed, his career apparently washed up. Then he ran and won in 1968. It was a remarkable comeback, the press hated Nixon and made a mission to get him removed, much like Trump.

Trump is following a very similar path, sure its different but the fact is he is making a startling comeback. It's very Nixon like. Make no mistake, Nixon praised Trump in the early 80s. I am quite certain Trump remembers that.