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Thread: Official Presidential Polling and Odds thread

  1. #561
    Hurricane Expert tgull's Avatar
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    Harris is absolutely collapsing in the betting markets:

    Market icon

    Donald Trump

    $565,158,828 Vol.

    57.9%
    Market icon

    Kamala Harris

    $383,126,673 Vol.

    41.9%

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    Diamond Sloppy Joe's Avatar
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    They better start hiding him, deranged senility won't play well with anyone.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sloppy Joe View Post
    They better start hiding him, deranged senility won't play well with anyone.

    How is standing there listening to a song, or people leaving an event deranged? I do agree, his best strategy is to play golf and watch her further implode while poor people become unglued. If you don't have a couple million in this loose money economy you are a total fucking loser. I made $20,000 last month just trading stocks, its so easy.

     
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      Jayjami: lol. You don’t even have $500.

  4. #564
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    Quote Originally Posted by VaughnP View Post
    https://twitter.com/ElectionTime_/status/1837493375727292874

    Here is another Virginia poll. This one is only among adults, not RV or LV, but it shows again that high turnout will almost surely hurt Dems everywhere this time as expected. I don't see Trump winning Virginia, but if these polls are even close to accurate, Kamala has no hope at North Carolina, and despite the very suspect PA polls, is probably going to need to make up a point or two.

    The sports books are always unusual on political betting, but it's looking like there will eventually have to be an even bigger second push back to Trump at some point very soon. This would be happening in the next couple of days if not for PolyMarket and people believing that the highest quality polls can show her tied or worse at the national level and PA polls somehow be 4 and even 5 points left of that. Trump not being a 3 to 2 favorite at minimum seems absurd.
    That was a few weeks ago.

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    In all actuality Trump is somewhere around a 4 or 5 to 1 favorite, betting markets account for Libtardia TDS and bias in public perception. If the election were today, 10 to 1 +. If something doesn't drastically change, PolyMarket will shift to the 3 or 4 to 1 range at some point. Michigan polling is exposing the truth, and it's not possible for Michigan to be Trump +1 or 2 and not be +3 or so in Pennsylvania.

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    Truth sucks libs!

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    Gold The Boz's Avatar
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    Trump now -145 Ho +125 at Bovada.

    Can still get +200 on Trump win but Ho winning popular vote, still the best bet if you believe Trump is winning the EC.

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    Platinum Jayjami's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post
    I made $20,000 last month just trading stocks, its so easy.
    The Stock Market is at an all time high. Thanks Uncle Joe!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jayjami View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post
    I made $20,000 last month just trading stocks, its so easy.
    The Stock Market is at an all time high. Thanks Uncle Joe!
    Should be a bigger talking point for Ho, but her base doesn’t want to hear about it since they demonize success. When the reality is over 63% of Americans own stock in some form.

    The other issue is the market always has gone up over time under Presidents of both parties. With a few bumps along the way, corporate America always finds way to make money regardless of policies created to hurt them.

    However the proposed tax on unrealized Capital Gains would be a market killer, but it will never pass so it’s a non issue.

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    Tuesday, October 15
    Michigan: Trump vs. Harris
    Fabrizio/Anzalone
    Trump 49, Harris 48
    Trump
    +1
    Michigan: Multi-Candidate
    MRG
    Trump 44, Harris 45, Kennedy 3, Stein 2, Oliver 1, West 1
    Harris
    +1
    North Carolina: Trump vs. Harris
    Trafalgar Group (R)
    Trump 47, Harris 45
    Trump
    +2
    Texas: Trump vs. Harris
    University of Houston
    Trump 51, Harris 46
    Trump
    +5

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    #NEW NORTH CAROLINA poll 🔴 Trump: 51% (+5) 🔵 Harris: 46% @Rasmussen_Poll | 10/9-14 | N=1,042LV

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    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post
    #NEW NORTH CAROLINA poll 🔴 Trump: 51% (+5) 🔵 Harris: 46% @Rasmussen_Poll | 10/9-14 | N=1,042LV
    HUGE move on Pinnacle today. Trump now -170,(no vig line -155) up from -146 this morning.

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    I DONT MAKE THE RULES. I DONT. YOU GOT THAT?

    New General election poll - Georgia 🔴 Trump 49% (+2) 🔵 Harris 47% Last poll - 🟡 Tie Insider advantage #B - 800 LV - 10/15

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    as much as i want DJT to win, they ain't gonna let him win... even with DJT polling better with people of color than any other Republican in history ( beating his old mark ) they just ain't gonna let him win..

    https://twitter.com/tonyxtwo/status/1846295083768811864

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    Wednesday, October 16
    National: Trump vs. Harris
    Marquette
    Harris 50, Trump 50
    Tie
    National: Trump vs. Harris
    Marist
    Harris 52, Trump 47
    Harris
    +5

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    Trump has surged to 59% on Polymarket. He is up to 54% on Predicitit, which is significant. Predicitit caps bets to $850, so it really is designed for poor people like say Sloppy Joe. Retail bettors. The smart money is on Polymarket, and its heavy Trump. I dropped over $850 at a high end steak house last weekend, its chump change.

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    Platinum Jayjami's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post
    Trump has surged to 59% on Polymarket. He is up to 54% on Predicitit, which is significant. Predicitit caps bets to $850, so it really is designed for poor people like say Sloppy Joe. Retail bettors. The smart money is on Polymarket, and it’s heavy Trump. I dropped over $850 at a high end steak house last weekend, it’s chump change.
    lol @ bragging about your alleged wealth to impress people on the internet who don’t care. Tight life.

     
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      garrett: .

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    Quote Originally Posted by go_buccos View Post
    Pinnacle just put up all the swing state odds today.

    EC winner: Trump +103, Harris -124
    Arizona: Trump -160
    Florida: Trump -552
    Georgia: Trump -146
    Maine: (statewide winner) Harris -725
    Michigan: Harris -179
    Nevada: Harris -124
    New Hampshire: Harris -790
    North Carolina: Trump -140
    PA: Harris -128
    Texas: Trump -909
    Virginia: Harris -1050
    Wisconsin: Harris -189
    Above were the opening Pinny odds on 9/12/2024 for each battleground state. Current Pinny odds below:

    EC Winner: Trump -177, Harris +150
    Arizona: Trump -260
    Florida: Trump -1870
    Georgia: Trump -243
    Maine: OFF
    Michigan TIE -110
    Nevada: Harris -115
    New Hampshire: Harris -700
    North Carolina: Trump -208
    PA: Trump -143
    Texas: Trump -2225
    Virginia: Harris -680
    Wisconsin: Trump -123

    Popular vote winner: (just added) Harris -252

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