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Thread: Official Presidential Polling and Odds thread

  1. #181
    Hurricane Expert tgull's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by VaughnP View Post
    Back to Nate Rust's model, notice that Trump's probability of winning the popular vote have creeped to near 60/40. Nate will hold the line until the very end, but here is your reminder again that of polls which try to be objective and then parsing through the data if made available of established polls that are clearly biased, Trump is remarkably polling slightly ahead of her nationally.

    I would be surprised if she is allowed to do any debate at this point. If she gets completely embarrassed the Democrats could be back in a position where her awfulness noticeably affects the down ballot races. The correct strategy would be to basically concede the presidency, save face, and run the "joy" campaign to hope to get a national turnout of minority voters that Joe had completely lost, hopefully holding onto congressional and senate races they should win.
    I said this a couple weeks ago. She cannot handle a debate where she is standing and having to fill 90 seconds of content every 90 seconds. She is going to find away out of it. Just watch.

  2. #182
    Gold VaughnP's Avatar
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    https://twitter.com/poll_fair/status/1827556105368576251

    This account re-weights polls based on historical exit poll data.

  3. #183
    Gold VaughnP's Avatar
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    https://twitter.com/tayjoness/status/1815393876317728950

    Here's an old poll, but notice RFK's numbers. I wonder what the internals are showing. If Trump wins AZ, NV, GA, NC, that's 268 electoral votes. With New Hampshire he wouldn't need WI, PA, or MI.

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  5. #185
    Hurricane Expert tgull's Avatar
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    Trump has now moved ahead of Harris in just about every betting site. She is already preparing for the debate, a week in advance. If you don't think she is a nervous wreck leading up to September 10th you are lying to yourself. I have been consistent in my view, I think she will use every piece of media leverage to get out of the debate.

     
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      garrett: Shes a Former Prosector and AG of California she doesnt give a fk about deabting a felon, youre lost..
      
      splitthis: Omg garrett

  6. #186
    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by RichardBrodiesCombover. View Post


    lol drunk bottomset
    Like I said you are dumber than shit. And poor. Sucks being you doesn't it? You are one dumb muther fucker.
    I guarantee I have more than you will ever have, you drunk plumber

     
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      Jayjami: lol drunk bottomfag

  7. #187
    Silver Orko's Avatar
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    Sorry guys it's over.
    Name:  1725388029953684.jpg
Views: 137
Size:  94.7 KB

    How on earth will this country survive 4 years under Kamala?

     
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      splitthis: Lol

  8. #188
    Platinum garrett's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post
    Trump has now moved ahead of Harris in just about every betting site. She is already preparing for the debate, a week in advance. If you don't think she is a nervous wreck leading up to September 10th you are lying to yourself. I have been consistent in my view, I think she will use every piece of media leverage to get out of the debate.


    Seagulls been napping it out since the 2nd

     
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      Sloppy Joe:

  9. #189
    Hurricane Expert tgull's Avatar
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    Harris / Walz are making stops in NH, VA and get this MN. This means their internal polls are probably collapsing.

    Tuesday, September 3

    North Carolina: Trump vs. Harris
    East Carolina U.*
    Trump 48, Harris 47
    Trump
    +1

    Michigan: Multi-Candidate
    Detroit News/WDIV-TV
    Harris 44, Trump 45, Kennedy 5, Oliver , Stein 1, West
    Trump
    +1

     
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      garrett: Nice to see you back and on top it things..
      
      RichardBrodiesCombover.: Broke and drunk

  10. #190
    Platinum Jayjami's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post
    Trump has now moved ahead of Harris in just about every betting site. She is already preparing for the debate, a week in advance. If you don't think she is a nervous wreck leading up to September 10th you are lying to yourself. I have been consistent in my view, I think she will use every piece of media leverage to get out of the debate.
    If she was debating a normal person, instead of a fascist moron who lies all the time, she’d be in serious trouble.

     
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      splitthis: Omg stfu idiot

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    Hurricane Expert tgull's Avatar
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    https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1831397132814971356

    I hope this model is accurate. Having something this close will send TDS patients to the tallest bridge they can find.

  12. #192
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    https://twitter.com/EricLDaugh/status/1831323580514308270


    The Harris, I avoid answering questions, appears to be working with Independents.

  13. #193
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    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post
    https://twitter.com/EricLDaugh/status/1831323580514308270


    The Harris, I avoid answering questions, appears to be working with Independents.
    No immunity for Trump ordered.

    Trump sentencing Sept. 18.

    Anyone else would be in jail by now

  14. #194
    Hurricane Expert tgull's Avatar
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    You know things are getting dicey for Harris when CNN starts to panic:

    https://twitter.com/TimRunsHisMouth/status/1831384700835000810

  15. #195
    Hurricane Expert tgull's Avatar
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    That was some convention bounce:

    #New Nate Silver winner model - 🔴 Trump 60.9% (Chance) 🔵 Harris 39.1%

  16. #196
    Hurricane Expert tgull's Avatar
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    Brutal for Harris. Looks like she needs another Georgia bus tour.


    InteractivePolls
    @IAPolls2022

    Follow
    #Latest @NateSilver538 forecast (9/5)

    Chance of winning
    🟥 Trump: 60.1% (highest since 7/30)
    🟦 Harris: 39.7%
    ——
    Swing States: chance of winning

    Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump 61-39%
    Arizona - 🔴 Trump 73-27%
    North Carolina - 🔴 Trump 73-27%
    Georgia - 🔴 Trump 65-35%

  17. #197
    Diamond Tellafriend's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post
    Brutal for Harris. Looks like she needs another Georgia bus tour.


    InteractivePolls
    @IAPolls2022

    Follow
    #Latest @NateSilver538 forecast (9/5)

    Chance of winning
    🟥 Trump: 60.1% (highest since 7/30)
    🟦 Harris: 39.7%
    ——
    Swing States: chance of winning

    Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump 61-39%
    Arizona - 🔴 Trump 73-27%
    North Carolina - 🔴 Trump 73-27%
    Georgia - 🔴 Trump 65-35%

    she will NOT win Ga.

  18. #198

  19. #199
    Platinum splitthis's Avatar
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    Likely Trump will be hels’ed the sick satanic lib cult has no other option.

    4 more years of Trumpy would be fab to smoothly transition from this place I am rehabbing to the fucking woods for peace away from peeps until I perish.

    Actually pretty proud of my plumbing abilities installing a sink today.

    Doing some electrical tomorrow changing out a ballast and upgrading outdoor light fixture.

    Painting walls and trim in a few weeks when weather cools.

    Floors to be installed after the new year.

    Bathrooms retile planned for spring.

    Last thing before I throw this gem up for sale is a heat pump. Have ac already and an oil burner. Heat pump handy for whoever is in power, republicans use oil, dummycrats use heat pump.

    God is good.

     
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      Tellafriend:
      
      RichardBrodiesCombover.: Drink bleach pig
    Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. We didn't pass it to our children in the bloodstream. It must be fought for, protected, and handed on for them to do the same.

    Ronald Reagan

  20. #200
    Diamond Sloppy Joe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by splitthis View Post
    Likely Trump will be hels’ed the sick satanic lib cult has no other option.

    4 more years of Trumpy would be fab to smoothly transition from this place I am rehabbing to the fucking woods for peace away from peeps until I perish.

    Actually pretty proud of my plumbing abilities installing a sink today.

    Doing some electrical tomorrow changing out a ballast and upgrading outdoor light fixture.

    Painting walls and trim in a few weeks when weather cools.

    Floors to be installed after the new year.

    Bathrooms retile planned for spring.

    Last thing before I throw this gem up for sale is a heat pump. Have ac already and an oil burner. Heat pump handy for whoever is in power, republicans use oil, dummycrats use heat pump.

    God is good.
    Senility is beginning to affect the olds here lol. The fuck kind of rambling is the satan cunt on?

    How many cocks did you have to suck to finally gather the scratch to rip out those bloodstained floors?

    God knows...


     
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      splitthis: I work every day buddy
      
      BCR: Sex worker is mad
    PokerFraudAlert...will never censor your claims, even if they're against one of our sponsors. In addition to providing you an open forum report fraud within the poker community, we will also analyze your claims with a clear head an unbiased point of view. And, of course, the accused will always have the floor to defend themselves.-Dan Druff

    Quote Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    I'm pretty good at finding graves

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