Official Presidential Polling and Odds thread

[tgull]

Latest polling, things will break hard from Trump probably in a week or so:



Spread
Tuesday, October 1
North Carolina: Trump vs. Harris Washington Post
Trump 50, Harris 48

Trump +2

North Carolina: Trump vs. Harris Emerson
Trump 49, Harris 48

Trump +1

North Carolina: Trump vs. Harris Quinnipiac
Trump 49, Harris 48

Trump +1

North Carolina: Trump vs. Harris InsiderAdvantage
Trump 50, Harris 49

Trump +1

Georgia: Trump vs. Harris Quinnipiac
Trump 50, Harris 45

Trump +5

Georgia: Trump vs. Harris InsiderAdvantage
Trump 48, Harris 48

Tie

Michigan: Trump vs. Harris Remington Research (R)
Harris 49, Trump 47

Harris +2

Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Harris Emerson
Trump 48, Harris 48

Tie

Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Harris Fabrizio/Anzalone
Trump 47, Harris 50

Harris +3

Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Harris Remington Research (R)
Trump 48, Harris 47

Trump +1

Wisconsin: Trump vs. Harris Remington Research (R)
Harris 48, Trump 48

Tie

Arizona: Trump vs. Harris Emerson
Trump 50, Harris 47

Trump +3

Arizona: Trump vs. Harris InsiderAdvantage
Trump 49, Harris 48

Trump +1

Nevada: Trump vs. Harris Remington Research (R)
Harris 48, Trump 49

Trump +1

Nevada: Trump vs. Harris InsiderAdvantage
Harris 48, Trump 49

Trump +1

[The Boz]

ANYONE who believes ANY of these polls is an idiot.

The Dems are again doing a better LEGAL job of collecting ballots from blacks and others too lazy to show up and vote but will certainly vote when a ballot is sent to them and is collected by a “volunteer”.

Will again be the difference Wednesday morning when they are all counted.

[1dollarboxcar]

official VP debate thread for tonight is here https://pokerfraudalert.com/forum/sh...z-and-JD-Vance

[VaughnP]

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/EricLDaugh/status/1841228670507053547

[limitles]

Have you ever participated in a poll?

[VaughnP]

[VaughnP]

See how long it takes for them to flip after polymarket.

[VaughnP]

[Sanlmar]

US political wagering

“We are incredibly honored to bring safe, regulated, and trusted election markets to the US,” Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said in a statement. “This week is the dawn of a new era for financial markets.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/1...rkets-00182165

[tgull]

National polls are quite awful for Harris this close to the election. Little surprised she is still hanging around in North Carolina, but given her disastrous I will give you $750 for your home being wiped on Helene is quite laughable:

Thursday, October 3
Michigan: Trump vs. Harris MIRS/MI News Source
Harris 48, Trump 49

Trump +1

North Carolina: Trump vs. Harris High Point University
Trump 48, Harris 48

Tie

National: Trump vs. Harris Emerson
Harris 50, Trump 49

Harris +1

National: Trump vs. Harris NPR/PBS/Marist
Harris 50, Trump 48

Harris +2

National: Trump vs. Harris Rasmussen Reports
Harris 47, Trump 49

Trump +2

[tgull]

If people don't think half these media polls are rigged to suppress turnout on the R side you are just clueless.


BREAKING: @MSNBC Producer Admits MSNBC Is 'Doing All They Can to Help’ the Harris Campaign During an undercover date with an OMG journalist, Basel Hamdan ( @BaselYHamdan ), a writer and producer for MSNBC’s show “Ayman,” ( @AymanMSNBC ) was asked what the network has done to assist the Kamala Harris campaign. Hamdan revealed on hidden camera that “what her [Harris’s] message of the day is, is their message of the day,” as MSNBC actively pushes Harris’s narrative to help her win. He admitted that MSNBC is doing “all they can to help,” Harris get elected, with the network operating as an extension of the campaign. He went on to say, "MSNBC is indistinguishable from the party," further highlighting their partisan agenda.

[1dollarboxcar]

If people don't think half these media polls are rigged to suppress turnout on the R side you are just clueless.


BREAKING: @MSNBC Producer Admits MSNBC Is 'Doing All They Can to Help’ the Harris Campaign During an undercover date with an OMG journalist, Basel Hamdan ( @BaselYHamdan ), a writer and producer for MSNBC’s show “Ayman,” ( @AymanMSNBC ) was asked what the network has done to assist the Kamala Harris campaign. Hamdan revealed on hidden camera that “what her [Harris’s] message of the day is, is their message of the day,” as MSNBC actively pushes Harris’s narrative to help her win. He admitted that MSNBC is doing “all they can to help,” Harris get elected, with the network operating as an extension of the campaign. He went on to say, "MSNBC is indistinguishable from the party," further highlighting their partisan agenda.

[big dick]

ABC News
UPDATED Oct. 5, 2024, at 9:27 AM

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Generic ballot
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2024
Do voters want Republicans or Democrats in Congress?
An updating estimate of the generic congressional ballot, based on polls that ask people which party they would support in an election.
April 1, 2023
July 1
Oct. 1
Jan. 1, 2024
April 1
July 1
Oct. 1
30
40
50
60%
Democrats 47.0%
Republicans 45.0%
Oct. 3, 2024 leader
Oct. 3, 2024 leader
Democrats
Democrats
+2.0
KEY

ESTIMATE

95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE

For the 2024 cycle, we made changes to the way we calculate our polling averages. Read the full methodology here.

Sort by date

AddedSurveyed
Search polls
Dates Samplei Pollster Sponsor Result Net result
Generic ballot, 2024Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.
AVG.
Sept. 29-Oct. 1
1,265 LV
YouGov
The Economist Democrat 48% 46% Republican Democrat +2
Sept. 29-Oct. 1
1,463 RV
YouGov
The Economist Democrat 47% 44% Republican Democrat +3
Sept. 29-Oct. 1
1,000 LV
Emerson College
Democrat 47% 46% Republican Democrat +1
Sept. 27-Oct. 1
1,294 LV
Marist College
NPR, PBS News Democrat 47% 47% Republican Even
Sept. 27-Oct. 1
1,514 RV
Marist College
NPR, PBS News Democrat 47% 45% Republican Democrat +2
Sept. 23-25
1,005 LV
Echelon Insights
Democrat 50% 45% Republican Democrat +5
Sept. 21-24
1,220 LV
YouGov
The Economist Democrat 47% 45% Republican Democrat +2
Sept. 21-24
1,424 RV
YouGov
The Economist Democrat 46% 44% Republican Democrat +2
Sept. 19-24
1,000 LV
Clarity Campaign Labs
Democrat 46% 44% Republican Democrat +2
Sept. 17-19
800 LV
OnMessage
Senate Opportunity Fund Democrat 41% 46% Republican Republican +5
Sept. 16-17
810 LV
Florida Atlantic University PolCom Lab/Mainstreet Research
Democrat 47% 45% Republican Democrat +2
Sept. 16-17
820 RV
Florida Atlantic University PolCom Lab/Mainstreet Research
Democrat 47% 45% Republican Democrat +2
Sept. 15-17
1,445 RV
YouGov
The Economist Democrat 47% 43% Republican Democrat +4
Sept. 13-17
1,000 RV
Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies
NBC News Democrat 48% 46% Republican Democrat +2

[big dick]

those numbers above are really all you need to see to know the blue wave is incoming

im not even slightly concerned about Kamala losing

easy win easy money

[Texter]

those numbers above are really all you need to see to know the blue wave is incoming

im not even slightly concerned about Kamala losing

easy win easy money

Most of those are well within the margin of error, I see Harris squeaking this one out and fortunately the Congress will not go all blue.

[tgull]

those numbers above are really all you need to see to know the blue wave is incoming

im not even slightly concerned about Kamala losing

easy win easy money

Nothing like referring to polls two and three weeks old, smh. My gosh how have you remained an idiot this long? Take a look at this right wing network from way back when yesterday:

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1842216747866202376

[big dick]

those numbers above are really all you need to see to know the blue wave is incoming

im not even slightly concerned about Kamala losing

easy win easy money

Most of those are well within the margin of error, I see Harris squeaking this one out and fortunately the Congress will not go all blue.

I think shes gonna win easily but who knows...we will know soon enough

I just want these nutjobs out of power and I know there are millions and millions who want the same

These MAGA nuts are very VERY dangerous and a major threat to our way of life

Billionaires are trying to take over this country and turn us working people into their slaves

They are using race and all kinds of other nonsense to divide and conquer us (us as in the middle class) They aim to turn America into a dictatorship that rules us not represents us

They are using propaganda via social media to fool the low IQ people to gain power and once they get power they will retain power and never allow the power to fall back into the peoples hands again

If trump somehow wins i guarantee you all the maga people on this board will regret supporting MAGA at some point. The working class white man is making a massive error supporting these fascists and will regret it sooner or later if maga wins

[tgull]

These are the latest polls btw;

Friday, October 4
President Biden Job Approval
Rasmussen Reports
Approve 45, Disapprove 54
Disapprove
+9
Thursday, October 3
Michigan: Trump vs. Harris
MIRS/MI News Source
Harris 48, Trump 49
Trump
+1
Ohio: Trump vs. Harris
Bowling Green/YouGov
Trump 51, Harris 44
Trump
+7
New Hampshire: Trump vs. Harris
St. Anselm
Harris 51, Trump 44
Harris
+7
North Carolina: Trump vs. Harris
High Point University
Trump 48, Harris 48
Tie
North Dakota: Trump vs. Harris
North Dakota Poll
Trump 59, Harris 32
Trump
+27
National: Trump vs. Harris
Emerson
Harris 50, Trump 49
Harris
+1
National: Trump vs. Harris
NPR/PBS/Marist
Harris 50, Trump 48
Harris
+2
National: Trump vs. Harris
Rasmussen Reports
Harris 47, Trump 49
Trump
+2

[big dick]

Texter- I know you're a smart guy a good guy and a reasonable guy.

Look at some of the people on this board you're in political kahoots with- boxcarr, desert, mickey ect

Why would you or any normal man want to be associated with the morons i mentioned above?

[1dollarboxcar]

Most of those are well within the margin of error, I see Harris squeaking this one out and fortunately the Congress will not go all blue.

I think shes gonna win easily but who knows...we will know soon enough

I just want these nutjobs out of power and I know there are millions and millions who want the same

These MAGA nuts are very VERY dangerous and a major threat to our way of life

Billionaires are trying to take over this country and turn us working people into their slaves

They are using race and all kinds of other nonsense to divide and conquer us (us as in the middle class) They aim to turn America into a dictatorship that rules us not represents us

They are using propaganda via social media to fool the low IQ people to gain power and once they get power they will retain power and never allow the power to fall back into the peoples hands again

If trump somehow wins i guarantee you all the maga people on this board will regret supporting MAGA at some point. The working class white man is making a massive error supporting these fascists and will regret it sooner or later if maga wins

out of red reps for the time being, but you deserve a 100 of them...
typical communist/socialist playbook 101... accuse the other party/person of what you ( the accuser ) is actually doing and are guilty of... you must come from one them paid Chinese Bot Farms... JFC you are an IDIOT !!! are you related to Leslie??!!!