Originally Posted by
BCR
Trump has the white trash dumbass trailer demo locked down.
She had the minority and young urban dumbass locked down.
The ones too young to understand shit and think racism is a bigger problem than the debt.
Where were they going to go?
The fight, imo, is for that 5% who have real jobs and just fundamentally hate everything Trump is about, yet have a few $
I usually agree or mostly agree with your takes, and even the political ones we aren't too far off when we deviate.
But this one I have to disagree.
It's true that Trump definitely has the white trailer trash dumbass demo locked down.
However, Trump also made huge inroads with minority voters, especially men, like no Republican candidate has in our lifetime.
He's about splitting the overall Hispanic vote (and easily winning with Hispanic men), and while getting crushed with the black demographic, is doing far better with black people than any GOP candidate in modern history, including his own two campaigns in 2016 and 2020.
Unfortunately Trump is getting absolutely crushed with the moderate white suburban women demographic. Far worse than any GOP candidate in modern history. And it's only gotten worse since he picked Vance. The problem is that Trump's personality is like kryptonite to those women -- he's the arrogant, self-congratulatory jerk they've been avoiding all their lives. Vance doesn't have the same abrasive personality, but they all see him as an old fashioned misogynist who wants to put them back in the kitchen. So this whole ticket has zero appeal to these women, who otherwise might vote for a DeSantis type GOP candidate. And that's going to hurt.
The real battle is for the people who hate both sides. Before Trump was easily winning that, as people decided another Trump term was preferable to giving a clearly senile Biden another 4 years to get even more senile.
Now a lot of these voters are thinking, "Phew... no more Biden. Okay, Kamala isn't a good candidate, but she's not Trump and she's not senile, so.... I'll just go with her."
Trump's task is going to be proving to the American public that:
1) If they're unhappy now, voting for Kamala means more of the same, because she's the sitting VP
2) Kamala was one of the most liberal US Senators, and has a radical agenda which most people will hate
3) She's incompetent and can't even explain her own policy when not on a teleprompter
If Trump reasonably proves the above, he wins. And while they shouldn't obsess too much over Tim Walz, they do need to keep hammering him for his many lies. The guy really does seem to be a pathological liar, even oddly lying about whether or not his wife had IVF (first he said she did, now he says she didn't).