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Thread: Update on Chinamaniac

  1. #21
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    Will address some of these posts in a few...

    Also will answer any sports or gambling questions if anyone has any...

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    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post
    I saw in another thread someone asking where Chinamaniac was. I saw this a while video ago, meant to post it but forgot. He is a sports bettor full time and gave up all poker. He talks about his poker career and transition into sports betting, which looks to have been a success. The host asked some tough questions about his methodology on picking prop bets, he seemed skeptical, but China pushed back, good back and forth. There is one particularly awkward exchange about halfway through where China said the host was reading too much into it, or something like that.

    I am sure China has his prop bets line up today. Good watch and the comments on his appearance were mixed. I asked Druff if ok to post as I have not seen Chinamaniac post here forever and not sure if there was a falling out or something (there wasn't). He just gave up poker 100%, I remember him making that post several years ago.

    Video from late 2023:


    There is one particularly awkward exchange about halfway through where China said the host was reading too much into it, or something like that.

    LMK what it is I can break it down

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Funny - I literally just hit “post” on his prop twitter thread in the FFA WT

    I have followed his career closely and am very happy to see his success

    Its my understanding he wants to be more public facing and is looking for people to work with him. Ive worked with him in the past and done very well so if you curious I would suggest reaching out.

    First off , shoutout to Daly who is a close personal friend whom I have known for close to 30 years.

    I only starting handicapping player props because he had mentioned how easy they were 2013-2016 era

    I was bored one Saturday while waiting for "Heads Up" poker action on Merge I think in 2016 and I started capping props on a whim and the rest snowballed from there

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    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Funny - I literally just hit “post” on his prop twitter thread in the FFA WT

    I have followed his career closely and am very happy to see his success

    Its my understanding he wants to be more public facing and is looking for people to work with him. Ive worked with him in the past and done very well so if you curious I would suggest reaching out.
    I honestly thought when he said he gave up poker a few years ago on PFA, I was thinking yeah will last like a couple months. Looks like he completely walked away from the game. I had no idea he started with $100 working in a kitchen. It will be interesting to see if he can keep up his 63% win rate on nearly exclusively prop bets. I can't think of a tougher way to win consistently on, especially if you are betting on individual players.
    -When I was posting on NWP from 2004 - 2008 I was working in various kitchens off and on making $15-$20 an hour spending all of my money on liquor and drugs and gambling

    -I was a broke loser with no future and I am extremely fortunate I was able to progressively get "cleaner" and turn my life into something

    - Had I progressed on the path I was on in 2007-2008 I would for sure be dead by now. Just to make it to 40 years old I would have been like 60-1 to make it that far if a line was set in 2007.

    -Shipdachips loaned me $100 with 20 % interest in January of 2009 and I have ran it up higher than I could ever imagine in my wildest dreams

    - Just making $30-$50k my first year playing pro in 2009 made me "rich" in the sense that I found something that I loved to do and felt like I could build some type of future

    - I walked away from the online game after taking every last penny off the Merge network towards the end of 2018

    -I made a few blog style posts on Twitter describing how my transition from poker to sports went. There are a bunch of other threads I have created in the past year if your into reading this type of thing

    - Props are easier to beat than major market sides or totals but every market has its challenges year after year with various changes


    https://twitter.com/chinamaniac/status/1687193751024746496

    https://twitter.com/chinamaniac/status/1689025365770113024

     
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    Quote Originally Posted by chinamaniac View Post
    Will address some of these posts in a few...

    Also will answer any sports or gambling questions if anyone has any...
    are you max betting no balls hit the uprights this year?

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    Quote Originally Posted by BetCheckBet View Post
    I’d be interested why he got out of poker? As I understood he was making six figures in limit holdem. Doesn’t seem like he plays at all now. He seemed like a strong player and makes me wonder why he didn’t continue at least at a smaller level

    Having said all that I don’t envy anyone who makes a living gambling. Working a job normal job will give you the following.

    32-45 paid days off vacation and holidays.
    Couple grand a year in benefits
    Couple grand a year in matching retirement contributions
    Unemployment insurance or long term disability.
    And most importantly a sense of safety and security with your work and if you are let go access to severance pay.

    This doesn’t even include the fact that you may greatly be impacting yourself through references and limited networking.

    Now if you can pull in good money the above doesn’t matter. But if you gotta be making easily 6 figures to make giving up the above worth it.
    If Massachusetts or New Hampshire had a limit holdem scene like California I might have got stuck in the poker "trap" for longer. And that might not be a bad thing because I feel I could crush those card rooms for good hourlys.

    You are also correct my last couple of years of playing online poker were some of my best years but as the games were drying up I started playing @ Foxwoods in the 20-40 kill game in January of 2019 to network with some players with the anticipation of Encore opening in the spring/summer of 2019 and initially there were some good games running @ Encore when they opened but by the fall of 2019 the limit game died and I was really starting to ramp up my sports betting that I had as a side gig for a few years.

    The reason I did not continue playing poker is because sportsbetting is far more lucrative and it isn't close. We are basically going through the sportsbetting boom right now and it is certainly equivalent to the poker boom from 2003-2008 IMO.

     
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    Quote Originally Posted by BetCheckBet View Post

    Having said all that I don’t envy anyone who makes a living gambling. Working a job normal job will give you the following.

    32-45 paid days off vacation and holidays.
    Couple grand a year in benefits
    Couple grand a year in matching retirement contributions
    Unemployment insurance or long term disability.
    And most importantly a sense of safety and security with your work and if you are let go access to severance pay.

    This doesn’t even include the fact that you may greatly be impacting yourself through references and limited networking.

    Now if you can pull in good money the above doesn’t matter. But if you gotta be making easily 6 figures to make giving up the above worth it.
    These points are very good I would say for most people who try to gamble professionally. It is not easy to "make it" and be comfortable without grinding your ass off.

    But with that said

    -Once this Super Bowl is over I will have roughly 180 days of working less than 5 hours a week basically doing whatever I want with my time.
    -I have top tier benefits
    - I have retirement contribs
    - I could prob retire tomorrow if I really wanted to but I have no plans of stopping what I am doing any time soon

     
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  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Michael Jackson View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by chinamaniac View Post
    Will address some of these posts in a few...

    Also will answer any sports or gambling questions if anyone has any...
    are you max betting no balls hit the uprights this year?
    Yes, if the price is right

  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by BetCheckBet View Post
    I’d be interested why he got out of poker? As I understood he was making six figures in limit holdem. Doesn’t seem like he plays at all now. He seemed like a strong player and makes me wonder why he didn’t continue at least at a smaller level

    Having said all that I don’t envy anyone who makes a living gambling. Working a job normal job will give you the following.

    32-45 paid days off vacation and holidays.
    Couple grand a year in benefits
    Couple grand a year in matching retirement contributions
    Unemployment insurance or long term disability.
    And most importantly a sense of safety and security with your work and if you are let go access to severance pay.

    This doesn’t even include the fact that you may greatly be impacting yourself through references and limited networking.

    Now if you can pull in good money the above doesn’t matter. But if you gotta be making easily 6 figures to make giving up the above worth it.
    He was originally grinding big volume on low-middle stakes online, mostly heads up against fish.

    That eventually dried up, especially at limit holdem. His last attempt to do pro poker was playing the limit holdem game at the Encore, but that game simply wasn't very good, and he wasn't doing well enough to continue with it.

    I have heard he's done well with the prop betting, so while the host of the show was skeptical, it does seem that he's making a living at it.

    The general rule in sportsbetting is that you're more likely to find an edge (but less likely to get significant action) on lower profile bets. This is because high profile bets (such as NFL sides or totals) have both a lot of scrutiny and a lot of action. Because props are bet just a tiny fraction of sides/totals, and because there's so many of them, there can be some which are simply set wrong (and occasionally egregiously wrong).

    So while the host of that show and the YouTube commenters were mocking China for "eyeballing" things in order to make some of his picks, that strategy is actually more viable than it sounds, provided you are knowledgeable enough about the players and their current circumstances.

    The big downsides? You get shut out of action from props very easily, and also (as China briefly mentioned), you can move the line yourself from one bet. So if someone gets to it before you, the value is sometimes already ruined.

    While this wasn't a sports prop, I single-handedly moved the international betting line on Joe Biden winning the 2020 Dem primary, when I put down $3500 in action on it at about 3am in October 2019. Every single book had lowered his line within about 20 minutes of my placement of those bets, starting immediately with the book where I did it.


    Anyway, nice to hear PFA getting 2 mentions on the interview.

    Pretty spot on post as usual

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    Quote Originally Posted by BetCheckBet View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post

    He was originally grinding big volume on low-middle stakes online, mostly heads up against fish.

    That eventually dried up, especially at limit holdem. His last attempt to do pro poker was playing the limit holdem game at the Encore, but that game simply wasn't very good, and he wasn't doing well enough to continue with it.

    I have heard he's done well with the prop betting, so while the host of the show was skeptical, it does seem that he's making a living at it.

    The general rule in sportsbetting is that you're more likely to find an edge (but less likely to get significant action) on lower profile bets. This is because high profile bets (such as NFL sides or totals) have both a lot of scrutiny and a lot of action. Because props are bet just a tiny fraction of sides/totals, and because there's so many of them, there can be some which are simply set wrong (and occasionally egregiously wrong).

    So while the host of that show and the YouTube commenters were mocking China for "eyeballing" things in order to make some of his picks, that strategy is actually more viable than it sounds, provided you are knowledgeable enough about the players and their current circumstances.

    The big downsides? You get shut out of action from props very easily, and also (as China briefly mentioned), you can move the line yourself from one bet. So if someone gets to it before you, the value is sometimes already ruined.

    While this wasn't a sports prop, I single-handedly moved the international betting line on Joe Biden winning the 2020 Dem primary, when I put down $3500 in action on it at about 3am in October 2019. Every single book had lowered his line within about 20 minutes of my placement of those bets, starting immediately with the book where I did it.


    Anyway, nice to hear PFA getting 2 mentions on the interview.
    This actually makes total sense especially around how China (and many profitable poker players capitalized in poker). I've always been a huge proponent of game selection. Learning GTO and calculating every small edge simply isn't needed. The same being true for sports betting. Given that China uses a relatively small number of bets and looks for huge discrepancies, creating these advance algorithms to provide minimal advantage that many top sports betters tend to do just isn't worth it. He probably puts in more effort into figuring how to get money onto sites and using runners.

    I'd love to know what he is clearing though but understand why he;d never disclose that.

    Basically it boils down this.

    In poker my job was to hunt fish and come up with a style that was optimal to break them. I was never the best technical player. NEVER , not even close to the best at understanding game theory but thru reps and having good pattern recogntion and relentlessly going for the best seats and the best spots I was able to do well and make a living.

    Sports is not much different. I am looking for the best spots to make money in the easiest ways I see possible and that starts with prop markets that I originate.

    I don't bet MLB/NBA/NHL/NFL major market sides and totals just like when I played poker I wasn't trying to play in 6 max game with 5 crushers @ 100-200.

    But the difference is in poker those 5 crushers usually don't need to be staked to beat those games. In sportsbetting the guys who beat those major markets might need a partner to help them because they are constantly getting cut off so in sports if you network enough it is possible to dip your toes in all different types of waters.


    He probably puts in more effort into figuring how to get money onto sites and using runners.


    This is the golden age of sports betting, down the road you will hear crazy tales of what was going on in this era just like the poker boom

  11. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by monsterj View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post
    I saw in another thread someone asking where Chinamaniac was. I saw this a while video ago, meant to post it but forgot. He is a sports bettor full time and gave up all poker. He talks about his poker career and transition into sports betting, which looks to have been a success. The host asked some tough questions about his methodology on picking prop bets, he seemed skeptical, but China pushed back, good back and forth. There is one particularly awkward exchange about halfway through where China said the host was reading too much into it, or something like that.

    I am sure China has his prop bets line up today. Good watch and the comments on his appearance were mixed. I asked Druff if ok to post as I have not seen Chinamaniac post here forever and not sure if there was a falling out or something (there wasn't). He just gave up poker 100%, I remember him making that post several years ago.

    Video from late 2023:



    I just can't see how there is enough money doing this to make more than a modest income at best.

    Have you been living in a cave?

    I have had sports betting ads relentlessly shoved in my face the past 5 years

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kalam View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post

    I dont doubt the stock market is next level gaming.

    Sharp Prop betting is largely frowned upon because it s possible to have a high winning percentage over a period of time. I have been cut off from dozens of books over the years for exactly this.
    Yeah. If you are serious the hard part isn't winning props, it is not getting cut off. If someone had some magic trick they never got cut off you could probably just line shop and bet unders at the best prices and this might be enough to win long term.

    Does China mention how he can support himself winning props without getting cut off? Stokastik (formerly Awesome) is a data/algorithm based sports betting tout service that has transitioned from daily fantasy into a lot of player prop stuff. Their pros actually show documented high winning %'s at the legal online sports books, but they admit their limits are like $50/bet, which kind of defeats the purpose. Even if you are crushing, only being able to bet those amounts you are probably making less than a McDonalds manager.

    When I first started I was cutoff @ every book within 6 months for the most part. The first 2-3 years I hit dry spells where I wasn't able to bet much and getting money down was harder.

    Now with legalization of sports betting and it being available in so many states as well as knowing a lot of sports betting pros I could realistically get down $20,000 some props if I needed/ wanted to.

    Super Bowl is here now and if I wanted to bet Travis Kelces OVER 5.5 catches ( I am not betting this) I could probably get a massive amount on that without any help.

    My state had Draftkings VERY early in the game and I was able to take advantage of that both live and online. Imagine you were able to take a time machine back to 2004 and be Phil Ivey playing vs Bob Hughes from Arkansas. Very similar

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    Also, it never hurts to surround yourself with great people and soak in as much good information as possible.

    The most influential person I have met through the online world the past 25 years is probably the greatest gambler these boards has ever seen and that is Reggiman. Literally meeting guys like this can be life changing.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Funny - I literally just hit “post” on his prop twitter thread in the FFA WT

    I have followed his career closely and am very happy to see his success

    Its my understanding he wants to be more public facing and is looking for people to work with him. Ive worked with him in the past and done very well so if you curious I would suggest reaching out.
    Is it true you're looking for people to work with you? I have free time if you are.

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    Have you been doing the "bet every RB yardage total under" futures in the beginning of the season?

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    Quote Originally Posted by gut View Post
    Have you been doing the "bet every RB yardage total under" futures in the beginning of the season?
    No, I don't like to tie up a lot of $$ in futures but I am sure those are probably profitable

    You might be able to bet every UNDER on every RB every week in the NFL and turn a profit blindly betting

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    Quote Originally Posted by country978 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Funny - I literally just hit “post” on his prop twitter thread in the FFA WT

    I have followed his career closely and am very happy to see his success

    Its my understanding he wants to be more public facing and is looking for people to work with him. Ive worked with him in the past and done very well so if you curious I would suggest reaching out.
    Is it true you're looking for people to work with you? I have free time if you are.
    Don't need any runners right now. But always looking for partners if we can provide each other value somehow

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    Props to bottomset and China for creating the best thread on here in the last year.
    PokerfraudAlert acknowledges that our message board is on the unceded, unsurrendered Territory of Donkdown.com who's presence stretches back to that of Neverwinpoker and the Lithuanians. As such we acknowledge the great role that Tony G, Jewdonk, any many other Lithuanians have contributed to our community.

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    China was the fuckin' man. He was staking and coaching me in HU Limit Hold Em when Black Friday hit. He was a certified crusher.

     
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  20. #40
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    Also China how much money you putting down on the USA election?
    PokerfraudAlert acknowledges that our message board is on the unceded, unsurrendered Territory of Donkdown.com who's presence stretches back to that of Neverwinpoker and the Lithuanians. As such we acknowledge the great role that Tony G, Jewdonk, any many other Lithuanians have contributed to our community.

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