Update on Chinamaniac

[tgull]

I saw in another thread someone asking where Chinamaniac was. I saw this a while video ago, meant to post it but forgot. He is a sports bettor full time and gave up all poker. He talks about his poker career and transition into sports betting, which looks to have been a success. The host asked some tough questions about his methodology on picking prop bets, he seemed skeptical, but China pushed back, good back and forth. There is one particularly awkward exchange about halfway through where China said the host was reading too much into it, or something like that.

I am sure China has his prop bets line up today. Good watch and the comments on his appearance were mixed. I asked Druff if ok to post as I have not seen Chinamaniac post here forever and not sure if there was a falling out or something (there wasn't). He just gave up poker 100%, I remember him making that post several years ago.

Video from late 2023:

[Daly]

Funny - I literally just hit “post” on his prop twitter thread in the FFA WT

I have followed his career closely and am very happy to see his success

Its my understanding he wants to be more public facing and is looking for people to work with him. Ive worked with him in the past and done very well so if you curious I would suggest reaching out.

[garrett]

[simpdog]

China does come back once every 4 years to fleece PFA users on weight loss bets.

[tgull]

Funny - I literally just hit “post” on his prop twitter thread in the FFA WT

I have followed his career closely and am very happy to see his success

Its my understanding he wants to be more public facing and is looking for people to work with him. Ive worked with him in the past and done very well so if you curious I would suggest reaching out.

I honestly thought when he said he gave up poker a few years ago on PFA, I was thinking yeah will last like a couple months. Looks like he completely walked away from the game. I had no idea he started with $100 working in a kitchen. It will be interesting to see if he can keep up his 63% win rate on nearly exclusively prop bets. I can't think of a tougher way to win consistently on, especially if you are betting on individual players.

[Daly]

Funny - I literally just hit “post” on his prop twitter thread in the FFA WT

I have followed his career closely and am very happy to see his success

Its my understanding he wants to be more public facing and is looking for people to work with him. Ive worked with him in the past and done very well so if you curious I would suggest reaching out.

I honestly thought when he said he gave up poker a few years ago on PFA, I was thinking yeah will last like a couple months. Looks like he completely walked away from the game. I had no idea he started with $100 working in a kitchen. It will be interesting to see if he can keep up his 63% win rate on nearly exclusively prop bets. I can't think of a tougher way to win consistently on, especially if you are betting on individual players.

Havent spent a lot of time in the FFA Wagering Thread over the last 8 years I take it?

[tgull]

I honestly thought when he said he gave up poker a few years ago on PFA, I was thinking yeah will last like a couple months. Looks like he completely walked away from the game. I had no idea he started with $100 working in a kitchen. It will be interesting to see if he can keep up his 63% win rate on nearly exclusively prop bets. I can't think of a tougher way to win consistently on, especially if you are betting on individual players.

Havent spent a lot of time in the FFA Wagering Thread over the last 8 years I take it?

At best I am a sporadic sports gambler, so no. I'd rather invest/gamble in the stock market, returns are much better, although the taxes are a killer when you have a big year.

[BetCheckBet]

I’d be interested why he got out of poker? As I understood he was making six figures in limit holdem. Doesn’t seem like he plays at all now. He seemed like a strong player and makes me wonder why he didn’t continue at least at a smaller level

Having said all that I don’t envy anyone who makes a living gambling. Working a job normal job will give you the following.

32-45 paid days off vacation and holidays.
Couple grand a year in benefits
Couple grand a year in matching retirement contributions
Unemployment insurance or long term disability.
And most importantly a sense of safety and security with your work and if you are let go access to severance pay.

This doesn’t even include the fact that you may greatly be impacting yourself through references and limited networking.

Now if you can pull in good money the above doesn’t matter. But if you gotta be making easily 6 figures to make giving up the above worth it.

[tgull]

I’d be interested why he got out of poker? As I understood he was making six figures in limit holdem. Doesn’t seem like he plays at all now.

In his video he basically said the online games just dried up and the live games were even worse.

[garrett]

Tellafriend you are an idiot my Seagull use is how I think of Tgull nothing but a fkn SEAGULL bich

Are you a Seagull too motherfr Tellafriend you don't want this half you idiots on this site are huge biches hiding behind Monikers. Not me since ~2009 my Mushots were posted all over this site for years but IDGAF. It was STUPID Misdemeanor stuff that only wimp BICHS think is a big deal you Bich Tellafriend. Dont make me go ballistic..

Keep updating on people long gone from PFA here and don't even contribute its comical but I expect this of a lowly little SEAGULL now you too Tellafriend idiot

[garrett]

Have a nice day!

[gauchojake]

Good point Garrett

[Sloppy Joe]

Tgull and his men...this guy is sitting around thinking about chinamaniac on a Sunday?

Try devoting some.of that brings space to sobriety and getting your fucking life together, just bizarre behavior.

[BUBBLES]

Shut up Garrett

[Daly]

Havent spent a lot of time in the FFA Wagering Thread over the last 8 years I take it?

At best I am a sporadic sports gambler, so no. I'd rather invest/gamble in the stock market, returns are much better, although the taxes are a killer when you have a big year.

I dont doubt the stock market is next level gaming.

Sharp Prop betting is largely frowned upon because it s possible to have a high winning percentage over a period of time. I have been cut off from dozens of books over the years for exactly this.

[Dan Druff]

I’d be interested why he got out of poker? As I understood he was making six figures in limit holdem. Doesn’t seem like he plays at all now. He seemed like a strong player and makes me wonder why he didn’t continue at least at a smaller level

Having said all that I don’t envy anyone who makes a living gambling. Working a job normal job will give you the following.

32-45 paid days off vacation and holidays.
Couple grand a year in benefits
Couple grand a year in matching retirement contributions
Unemployment insurance or long term disability.
And most importantly a sense of safety and security with your work and if you are let go access to severance pay.

This doesn’t even include the fact that you may greatly be impacting yourself through references and limited networking.

Now if you can pull in good money the above doesn’t matter. But if you gotta be making easily 6 figures to make giving up the above worth it.

He was originally grinding big volume on low-middle stakes online, mostly heads up against fish.

That eventually dried up, especially at limit holdem. His last attempt to do pro poker was playing the limit holdem game at the Encore, but that game simply wasn't very good, and he wasn't doing well enough to continue with it.

I have heard he's done well with the prop betting, so while the host of the show was skeptical, it does seem that he's making a living at it.

The general rule in sportsbetting is that you're more likely to find an edge (but less likely to get significant action) on lower profile bets. This is because high profile bets (such as NFL sides or totals) have both a lot of scrutiny and a lot of action. Because props are bet just a tiny fraction of sides/totals, and because there's so many of them, there can be some which are simply set wrong (and occasionally egregiously wrong).

So while the host of that show and the YouTube commenters were mocking China for "eyeballing" things in order to make some of his picks, that strategy is actually more viable than it sounds, provided you are knowledgeable enough about the players and their current circumstances.

The big downsides? You get shut out of action from props very easily, and also (as China briefly mentioned), you can move the line yourself from one bet. So if someone gets to it before you, the value is sometimes already ruined.

While this wasn't a sports prop, I single-handedly moved the international betting line on Joe Biden winning the 2020 Dem primary, when I put down $3500 in action on it at about 3am in October 2019. Every single book had lowered his line within about 20 minutes of my placement of those bets, starting immediately with the book where I did it.


Anyway, nice to hear PFA getting 2 mentions on the interview.

[BetCheckBet]

I’d be interested why he got out of poker? As I understood he was making six figures in limit holdem. Doesn’t seem like he plays at all now. He seemed like a strong player and makes me wonder why he didn’t continue at least at a smaller level

Having said all that I don’t envy anyone who makes a living gambling. Working a job normal job will give you the following.

32-45 paid days off vacation and holidays.
Couple grand a year in benefits
Couple grand a year in matching retirement contributions
Unemployment insurance or long term disability.
And most importantly a sense of safety and security with your work and if you are let go access to severance pay.

This doesn’t even include the fact that you may greatly be impacting yourself through references and limited networking.

Now if you can pull in good money the above doesn’t matter. But if you gotta be making easily 6 figures to make giving up the above worth it.

He was originally grinding big volume on low-middle stakes online, mostly heads up against fish.

That eventually dried up, especially at limit holdem. His last attempt to do pro poker was playing the limit holdem game at the Encore, but that game simply wasn't very good, and he wasn't doing well enough to continue with it.

I have heard he's done well with the prop betting, so while the host of the show was skeptical, it does seem that he's making a living at it.

The general rule in sportsbetting is that you're more likely to find an edge (but less likely to get significant action) on lower profile bets. This is because high profile bets (such as NFL sides or totals) have both a lot of scrutiny and a lot of action. Because props are bet just a tiny fraction of sides/totals, and because there's so many of them, there can be some which are simply set wrong (and occasionally egregiously wrong).

So while the host of that show and the YouTube commenters were mocking China for "eyeballing" things in order to make some of his picks, that strategy is actually more viable than it sounds, provided you are knowledgeable enough about the players and their current circumstances.

The big downsides? You get shut out of action from props very easily, and also (as China briefly mentioned), you can move the line yourself from one bet. So if someone gets to it before you, the value is sometimes already ruined.

While this wasn't a sports prop, I single-handedly moved the international betting line on Joe Biden winning the 2020 Dem primary, when I put down $3500 in action on it at about 3am in October 2019. Every single book had lowered his line within about 20 minutes of my placement of those bets, starting immediately with the book where I did it.


Anyway, nice to hear PFA getting 2 mentions on the interview.

This actually makes total sense especially around how China (and many profitable poker players capitalized in poker). I've always been a huge proponent of game selection. Learning GTO and calculating every small edge simply isn't needed. The same being true for sports betting. Given that China uses a relatively small number of bets and looks for huge discrepancies, creating these advance algorithms to provide minimal advantage that many top sports betters tend to do just isn't worth it. He probably puts in more effort into figuring how to get money onto sites and using runners.

I'd love to know what he is clearing though but understand why he;d never disclose that.

[monsterj]

I saw in another thread someone asking where Chinamaniac was. I saw this a while video ago, meant to post it but forgot. He is a sports bettor full time and gave up all poker. He talks about his poker career and transition into sports betting, which looks to have been a success. The host asked some tough questions about his methodology on picking prop bets, he seemed skeptical, but China pushed back, good back and forth. There is one particularly awkward exchange about halfway through where China said the host was reading too much into it, or something like that.

I am sure China has his prop bets line up today. Good watch and the comments on his appearance were mixed. I asked Druff if ok to post as I have not seen Chinamaniac post here forever and not sure if there was a falling out or something (there wasn't). He just gave up poker 100%, I remember him making that post several years ago.

Video from late 2023:

I just can't see how there is enough money doing this to make more than a modest income at best.

[Kalam]

At best I am a sporadic sports gambler, so no. I'd rather invest/gamble in the stock market, returns are much better, although the taxes are a killer when you have a big year.

I dont doubt the stock market is next level gaming.

Sharp Prop betting is largely frowned upon because it s possible to have a high winning percentage over a period of time. I have been cut off from dozens of books over the years for exactly this.

Yeah. If you are serious the hard part isn't winning props, it is not getting cut off. If someone had some magic trick they never got cut off you could probably just line shop and bet unders at the best prices and this might be enough to win long term.

Does China mention how he can support himself winning props without getting cut off? Stokastik (formerly Awesome) is a data/algorithm based sports betting tout service that has transitioned from daily fantasy into a lot of player prop stuff. Their pros actually show documented high winning %'s at the legal online sports books, but they admit their limits are like $50/bet, which kind of defeats the purpose. Even if you are crushing, only being able to bet those amounts you are probably making less than a McDonalds manager.

[Dan Druff]

If you connect the dots in the interview, you can understand how he's probably avoiding the cut-off problem.

They brought up a PFA thread where some users were giving him a hard time for "multiaccounting" sports, which of course is vastly different from multiaccounting poker.

Basically if you can find sports ploppies to work with you, you can share an account with them, bet sharp props on it, let them keep firing their usual -EV action they were going to do anyway, and then give them a cut or a flat fee for it.

It's similar to being a blackjack card counter, and sitting with non-counter friends/acquaintances who plan just to play their own way. Provided you're roughly betting the same limits, you probably won't get backed off, as long as the casino believes all of you are together. I felt safest counting cards when joining other poker player acquaintances who were just degen-firing.