US Presidential Betting 2024 - Betfair Odds

[ShawnFanningsLimpDick]

Any thoughts on the Presidential betting market? The odds here are just the total return for a £1 bet so 2.5 would be +150 in US odds. The market is saying Trump 40%, Biden 31.25%, Haley 9%, Michael Obama 4% etc
It's not just about picking a winner - if you have a very strong view that a candidate was going to be eliminated you can lay them, or if you're sure it will be between Trump/Biden then lay the field,or conversely lay Trump/Biden and back the field if you feel some upset may happen between now and the election.



The small print:

This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2024 presidential election. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution.

This market will be settled once both the projected winner is announced by the Associated Press and the losing candidate concedes. If the losing candidate does not concede, or if there is any uncertainty around the result (for instance, caused by recounts and/or potential legal challenges), then the market will be settled on the winner decided by Congress, on the date on which the Electoral College votes are counted in a joint session of Congress.

[tyde]

‘Michelle’ (ahem) Obama a not-so-distant 4th with plenty of time left for them to stage some kind of ‘event’ to replace cadaver Joe who the hell knows how it plays out

probably scripted out already

[Dan Druff]

No chance:
Kamala
RFK Jr
Vivek

Very low chance:
Michelle Obama

Low chance:
DeSantis
Haley
Newsom

Very high chance:
Biden
Trump

So you can definitely lay the "no chance" ones.

DeSantis is nice value at what appears to be a +6400 payout, if I'm reading this weird chart correctly. This is because he's going to have an excellent chance to win the whole thing if something happens to Trump. His low polling numbers are because Trumpers aren't abandoning their messiah for him. However, if Trump is out (death, incapacitation, prison, etc), they will definitely support him over Haley. And DeSantis would have a good shot at beating Biden.

Haley +900 is a shit bet. Lay that one. She would probably do the best against Biden (as she could easily appeal to moderate Dems and independents), but she is mostly disliked by her own party at this point, so she won't pass Trump, and probably won't beat DeSantis if Trump becomes unavailable. Her odds are much longer than +900, and in fact I believe DeSantis should be a lesser dog than her.

Newsom at +2100 is not the greatest value, either. Something would have to happen to Biden. He has been very pro-Biden in all of his rhetoric, and clearly isn't attempting some last-minute coup within the Democratic Party. He has plenty of time to wait until 2028, and is more just the backup candidate in case Biden croaks or becomes incapacitated. But I woulnd't lay him or bet on him, not enough value either way.

Might want to lay Michelle Obama, as she has not expressed a desire to run, and we are only 10 months from the election.

Trump is a small favorite right now over Biden, but that (very likely) matchup is looking kinda tossup-ish right now.

[ftpjesus]

No chance:
Kamala
RFK Jr
Vivek

Very low chance:
Michelle Obama

Low chance:
DeSantis
Haley
Newsom

Very high chance:
Biden
Trump

So you can definitely lay the "no chance" ones.

DeSantis is nice value at what appears to be a +6400 payout, if I'm reading this weird chart correctly. This is because he's going to have an excellent chance to win the whole thing if something happens to Trump. His low polling numbers are because Trumpers aren't abandoning their messiah for him. However, if Trump is out (death, incapacitation, prison, etc), they will definitely support him over Haley. And DeSantis would have a good shot at beating Biden.

Haley +900 is a shit bet. Lay that one. She would probably do the best against Biden (as she could easily appeal to moderate Dems and independents), but she is mostly disliked by her own party at this point, so she won't pass Trump, and probably won't beat DeSantis if Trump becomes unavailable. Her odds are much longer than +900, and in fact I believe DeSantis should be a lesser dog than her.

Newsom at +2100 is not the greatest value, either. Something would have to happen to Biden. He has been very pro-Biden in all of his rhetoric, and clearly isn't attempting some last-minute coup within the Democratic Party. He has plenty of time to wait until 2028, and is more just the backup candidate in case Biden croaks or becomes incapacitated. But I woulnd't lay him or bet on him, not enough value either way.

Might want to lay Michelle Obama, as she has not expressed a desire to run, and we are only 10 months from the election.

Trump is a small favorite right now over Biden, but that (very likely) matchup is looking kinda tossup-ish right now.

less then next two weeks could end the GOP primary quickly.. If Trump smashes Iowa and NH he will have done what nobody had done in 48yrs ont he GOP side and win both. The interesting outcome is 2nd place. If Desantis finishes 2nd in Iowa and Haley 2nd in NH (apparently theyve each gone all in in those respective states its unlikely either drops out YET however if Haley goes 2nd in both Desantis is gone and if Haley gets 3rd in NH with all the ad buys and push from the corporate media darlings shes also done primary wise).

That to me isnt the interesting part its WHO WILL TRUMPS VP candidate be?? As much as some might like it from a purely Maga perspective it wont be Vivek.. Id personally like to see him make the Dems heads explode and pick Tulsi Gabbard.. A female minority going HU with Kneepads would be amazing.. Shed chew up and spit out Kamala in record time in a debate. Now theres an interesting name Ive heard floated.. Its not a Gov in fact its the guy who would be in line potentially to be the Sr Senator from KY once Mitch the turtle bitch retires.. Yes there are some rumblings it could be Rand Paul.

He's definitely anti establishment for sure,but I dunno if hes the right choice.. I say that because if he did pick Gabbard shes gonna bring a shit ton of moderate Dems and Independants who are potentially not crazy about Trump deep down but with her would definitely consider the ticket since hes only a one term limit anyway with her being the potential heir apparent come 2028 as the first female and minority POTUS. Shes a hell of a middle of the road choice. If it was her vs Trump vs Biden Id probably take her if it wasnt such a rigged 2 party shitfest.. Shes pretty straight forward blunt and would be impossible for the Dems to mount a candidate if she is the VP for 4 yrs.

[tyde]

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/collinrugg/status/1746015675406000528

[Cerveza Fria]

Might want to lay Michelle Obama, as she has not expressed a desire ...

Does your lady know this?

[tyde]

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/samanthajoroth/status/1746247738264576062

[Dan Druff]

Poor DeSantis having to fend off the effective trolling by the Trump faithful.

He didn't have to deal with this in Florida against nincompoops like Charlie Crist.

Still he's a good value bet at 64-1 for the Presidency, if you can get that line. He will beat Haley heads up if Trump dies or otherwise can't run.

Pretty big fail on the part of Ron's security to let some weirdo approach and make that entire speech before getting pulled away.