Sean Perry refuses to partially chop Circa Survivor contest to lock up guaranteed $400k, then loses

[Dan Druff]

The Circa Survivor NFL contest requires making 20 correct picks (no spread, just win/loss) without a single loss. You are required to pick one team to win per week, plus an additional one on Thanksgiving and another on Christmas. You cannot use the same team twice.

We attempted to enter this with 3 entries ($1000 each). We lost 2 quickly, then the third one made it to week 10, where we were eliminated in a super close game and almost had picked a team which ended up winning (in a different game). Sadly, the next several weeks would have also been winners for us, as we had a plan mapped out going forward. But this isn't about us.

Sean Perry, a high stakes poker pro with a very controversial recent history, was one of the final 10 of the almost 9300 entries.

In previous years, remaining contestants often agreed to a chop, when it got close enough to the end. The other 9 people were open to chopping before this past week, but Sean Perry refused.

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https://twitter.com/itsvegassean/status/1736885371777274241

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https://twitter.com/itsvegassean/status/1738245590218387549

The chop offered to Perry involved a guaranteed $400k to each of the remaining 10 entrants, and then playing for the remaining $5.3m.

In the Las Vegas Review-Journal, Perry stated that he had "an edge" and would not chop with anyone.

Why would I chop when I have an edge? If you do $400K each, any money I take out of the prize pool is money I’m, in theory, losing because I have an edge. I believe I have the best team left, and I’m confident in my ability. This is what I do. I’m a big-time crusher. I’ve been the biggest winner in sports for the longest time.

Perry had the Denver Broncos at home against the Patriots, a -7 favorite, but the Patriots won. Donk fucking down. Five others also had the Broncos, bringing the remaining contestants down to 4 people.

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https://twitter.com/itsvegassean/status/1739140550052508132


It is possible that Perry had hedged by betting a lot on the Patriots, so perhaps that's what he meant by "getting his money's worth".

In May 2021, Daniel Colman accused Perry of scamming him for over a million dollars, as part of a weird DFS sidebet: https://pokerfraudalert.com/forum/sh...betting-scheme

As of this date, Perry has never commented on the Colman thing, nor paid him anything.

[Dan Druff]

Josh Arieh also came forward with a negative story about Perry in the past:

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https://twitter.com/JoshuaArieh/status/1739410672650174705

PSA to anyone thinking of doing biz w the self proclaimed “best sports bettor in the world”.

1. I’ve heard nothing but bad/negative things about him from people that would know.

2. About 5 years ago Josh Ladines called me to purchase a large amount of Powerball tix for a group of poker players. Sean was part of that group. The amount ended being about $40k. I bought the tix and took a bunch of pics. Sean accused me of voiding the sales and basically screwing the group.

Josh Ladines doesnt know me too well, I had a friend call him and vouch for me, that I was honest and would never do that.

After some back n forth, sean offered to bet (I don’t remember $10 or $20k) that I didn’t purchase the correct amount of tix.

We obv accepted the wager, but Sean disappeared and basically backed out.

Moral of the story is that I believe he has larceny in his heart, to think that’s a possibility.

I’ve never heard anything good about the guy… maybe he’s changed 🤷🏻*♂️🤷🏻*♂️

[Daly]

I won one of these contests 3 years ago for 40K. On my way to the W I reached out to some sharp people and was added to a group chat with some people who enter these semi professionally. Ive learned a lot about these contests and the “right way” to build value. So with that being said I am not against him not wanting to chop. There are groups of people who enter these contests who are way +EV. I have not looked at what teams he had remaining and what teams the other teams had left but its not imposable he was in fact in a much better spot than everyone else. If there are 3 weeks left and you have Balt, Mia, SF & Phil and the other guys have NE, Arz & Carolina….. you can see how choping, at least for even money, is a bad idea.

As i said i have no idea who Sean had left. The people I respect that have dealt with this guy in the past and none of them had a good thing to say about him. His non payment on sports debts is legendary.

But fuck all that….. at no point does it make sense to publicly put a bullseye on your back like he did. One thing to put a quiet & backchanel “Ill pass” out there and taking to Twitter with a Ego thumping announcement to the world about how great you are.

[NickyPipes]

Agree with the comment that he is likely to launch some type of tout type service or possible even just a general gambling or personal brand coaching service in the coming months

Hard to say if I would chop or not, I probably would be happy to chop but I cant blame the guy, sounds like he is in incredible debt and might have wanted a massive score as fuck you money

[Dan Druff]

I won one of these contests 3 years ago for 40K. On my way to the W I reached out to some sharp people and was added to a group chat with some people who enter these semi professionally. Ive learned a lot about these contests and the “right way” to build value. So with that being said I am not against him not wanting to chop. There are groups of people who enter these contests who are way +EV. I have not looked at what teams he had remaining and what teams the other teams had left but its not imposable he was in fact in a much better spot than everyone else. If there are 3 weeks left and you have Balt, Mia, SF & Phil and the other guys have NE, Arz & Carolina….. you can see how choping, at least for even money, is a bad idea.

As i said i have no idea who Sean had left. The people I respect that have dealt with this guy in the past and none of them had a good thing to say about him. His non payment on sports debts is legendary.

But fuck all that….. at no point does it make sense to publicly put a bullseye on your back like he did. One thing to put a quiet & backchanel “Ill pass” out there and taking to Twitter with a Ego thumping announcement to the world about how great you are.

Agree with all of this.

Indeed all tickets aren't created equal in these Survivor contests, and if your remaining teams are far superior in matchups to the other people's remaining teams, your equity is more, and thus so should your payout.

I also agree that his brash proclamations about not chopping (and how he's the "world's greatest gambler") come off extremely douchey, even by gambling world standards. Some say that this is all an act so he can get action from people (in both sports and poker), but I can't imagine this is all manufactured.

I can tell you from playing this Circa Survivor contest for the first time, there are a surprising number of fish entering, and some mind-bogglingly stupid decisions made. And then there's those who forget to submit picks and get auto-eliminated, even as late as week 10. Amazing.

But yeah, Sean has a horrible rep in the gambling world.

[Dan Druff]

Agree with the comment that he is likely to launch some type of tout type service or possible even just a general gambling or personal brand coaching service in the coming months

Hard to say if I would chop or not, I probably would be happy to chop but I cant blame the guy, sounds like he is in incredible debt and might have wanted a massive score as fuck you money

Sean has started a tout service. He's obnoxiously tweeting each day: https://twitter.com/seanperrywins

Here's the website where you can buy his picks: https://whop.com/seanperrywins/

It ranges from $200 (1 day) to $10k for a year.

He posts some free plays on his Twitter. For the most part he only reveals the picks publicly once the game is well underway.

Someone messaged me on Twitter (I don't know the guy, so I can't speak to his reliability), who told me that Sean's "Locks" really did start off 7-0. It was 14-4 last I checked. The guy did give me a few of the "locks" before the games started, and those were indeed the locks Sean later claimed were his picks.

The guy said Sean's daily picks were about .500ish.

Obviously this sample size is waaaaaaaaay too small to judge, but I have looked at Sean's picks, and have come up with a working theory.


First off, him turning down the chop means little. He could easily have been hedging, and the turning it down got him a ton of free publicity.

But as far as the "lock" picks go, they actually seem to be on the sharp side, even though these tend to be sides/totals, which you're never going to beat at a massive clip.

I am hearing that Sam Soverel (friend of Sean's) has a data-driven group into making sharp sports picks. So my theory is that the "locks" are actually Sam's picks, and they have a partnership in this whole tout venture. The regular picks are probably Sean's, as they seem less sharp and are also not doing as well. He probably makes those just to pad volume of picks.

Even with these locks likely being sharp picks, it's still not worth the price he's charging.

[Kalam]

I listen to Steve Fezzik (a pro sports bettor) a lot, as he is a tout who works for RJ Bells Dream Preview and does a lot of podcast stuff. Anyways, he bought a share of one of the winners when there was like 10 people left and advised the guy through the rest of the way, and talked about the strategy a lot on the Podcast, including the behind the scenes deal making. Super interesting. One interesting thing Fezzik advised the guy to do is to publicly announce his picks early in the week, to try to pressure the other remaining players to take different picks which would be -EV for them in the long run (general game theory is that you dont want pick the same games, but you have to balance that with taking -EV picks. By announcing their picks ahead of time and not ever lying they would put the ball in the other guys court to pressure them into possibly making an -EV decision)

They did make a deal for most of the money with 4 guys left after the Patriots Christmas win took out over half the people left. And multiple people (3 I think?) made it all the way and chopped the remainder.

Interesting note. Before he sold some of his action to Fezzik, the guy who ultimately ended up chopping the win accidentally picked the wrong side one week (he actually picked a pretty big underdog) and won.

[tigerpiper]

I listen to Steve Fezzik (a pro sports bettor) a lot, as he is a tout who works for RJ Bells Dream Preview and does a lot of podcast stuff. Anyways, he bought a share of one of the winners when there was like 10 people left and advised the guy through the rest of the way, and talked about the strategy a lot on the Podcast, including the behind the scenes deal making. Super interesting. One interesting thing Fezzik advised the guy to do is to publicly announce his picks early in the week, to try to pressure the other remaining players to take different picks which would be -EV for them in the long run (general game theory is that you dont want pick the same games, but you have to balance that with taking -EV picks. By announcing their picks ahead of time and not ever lying they would put the ball in the other guys court to pressure them into possibly making an -EV decision)

They did make a deal for most of the money with 4 guys left after the Patriots Christmas win took out over half the people left. And multiple people (3 I think?) made it all the way and chopped the remainder.

Interesting note. Before he sold some of his action to Fezzik, the guy who ultimately ended up chopping the win accidentally picked the wrong side one week (he actually picked a pretty big underdog) and won.

Interesting. Fezzik on Even Money Podcast is pretty funny. I haven't tracked his results, though.

[Dan Druff]

The problem is that too many people think in binary terms.

Sean has a terrible reputation, is accused by many of being a scammer, and does not come off as particularly intelligent or sophisticated. At the same time, he comes off as a braggart douche, so add all of that together and people assume that any tout service he runs must be an outright scam.

But not necessarily. Sean could be selling sharp-side picks fed to him by much more knowledgeable people than himself. Basically it's putting a brash, somewhat moronic frontman in charge of distributing well-researched picks, and trying to sell the image of an unlikely sportsbetting savant. It's actually a pretty clever ruse, as Sean's controversial nature gets eyeballs, and inevitably some people will buy his picks when he keeps bragging how much they're winning. But Sean bragging and exaggerating doesn't necessarily mean the picks are bad.

Think of Sean Perry as like the Milli Vanilli of sports touts. Until the scandal hit, that group was successful because they combined actual catchy music with two attractive and unique-looking frontmen. Had the songs been terrible, it wouldn't have worked, and had the frontmen been the actual singers, it also probably wouldn't have worked.

I asked him about this today on Twitter, but of course he didn't answer.

[Dan Druff]

Sean Perry bet $1.1m on the 49ers.

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https://twitter.com/seanperrywins/status/1757118908455338081

This bet was verified to be real by Jeffrey Benson, the sportsbook manager.

Perry has since publicly asked Circa to give him higher limits again, as he claimed they greatly lowered his limits awhile ago.

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https://twitter.com/seanperrywins/status/1757520294196253037

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https://twitter.com/seanperrywins/status/1757512955951018423

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https://twitter.com/ToddWitteles/status/1757618774860300313


In case you think my theory might be wrong, note that Jeffrey Benson liked my post.

[TheXFactor]

Where does a guy like this get his money?

I guess from helping people promote and run an illegal sports betting operation.

[NickyPipes]

His dad is Ralph Perry?

As in "On Your Bike Russian" Tony G Ralph Perry?

[Dan Druff]

His dad is Ralph Perry?

As in "On Your Bike Russian" Tony G Ralph Perry?

Correct.

As in "lost to Dan Druff at the 2005 $3k Limit Holdem final table" Ralph Perry, as well.

[The Boz]

His dad is Ralph Perry?

As in "On Your Bike Russian" Tony G Ralph Perry?

Correct.

As in "lost to Dan Druff at the 2005 $3k Limit Holdem final table" Ralph Perry, as well.

Any relation to this famous Vegas “Perry”?

[Dan Druff]

Sean Perry Twitter (@seanperrywins) donkdown

[NickyPipes]

Interesting decision to delete his account

It’s a Spazz decision considering the following he has garnered

Despite being a douche he is definitely making money selling picks, probably a good amount so for him to delete his account randomly leads me to think he is on drugs or drunk and depressed that he is failing when he feels his vision was so close to coming to fruition

I could tell he didn’t have what it takes from looking at his eyes in his videos. He didn’t have the self belief required, who can blame him? Hard to get on camera and claim you’re the greatest when you’re getting crushed

[NickyPipes]

Sean Perry Comeback Plan

Take a few weeks off Twitter

Reappear claiming to have taken time away from social media to clear his head, the quick rise to attention went to his head and distracted from his mission, got him away from his main focus and A Game

Now that he’s had time off his minds clear, fresh and he’s basic to his roots

Continently he has also been experiencing a personal hot streak since he’s taken time away, here’s some winning bet slips to prove that

Now send payment for todays picks sucker

[Dan Druff]

He's claiming on Telegram that he didn't voluntarily shut down his account, but it was removed/deleted/banned for unknown reasons.

Strange. Not sure if I believe him. He might have tilt deleted it and be blaming it on Elon.