Intrade - Obama/Romney

[abrown83]

Buying up a sick amount (for me - about 7% of my investment portfolio) on Romney.

My thought process on this...

The goal of this is very short-term, hoping that Romney wins the debate on Wednesday and bounces back up over $3.

Alternatively, I think the polls will tighten a bit just because the major polling agencies (sans Rasmussen) don't want to risk looking stupid by banking on 2008 turnouts and in turn they might tighten back up inside of the margin of error the next two weeks. That should also lead to a Romney bounce.

If I get a good bounce I might freeroll the chance that Romney might win, after cashing out to get even.

[Dan Druff]

Buying up a sick amount (for me - about 7% of my investment portfolio) on Romney.

My thought process on this...

The goal of this is very short-term, hoping that Romney wins the debate on Wednesday and bounces back up over $3.

Alternatively, I think the polls will tighten a bit just because the major polling agencies (sans Rasmussen) don't want to risk looking stupid by banking on 2008 turnouts and in turn they might tighten back up inside of the margin of error the next two weeks. That should also lead to a Romney bounce.

If I get a good bounce I might freeroll the chance that Romney might win, after cashing out to get even.

Romney isn't going to win.

It is highly unlikely at this point.

Anyone who wants to bet me on that right now (you send first, obv), I will give you long odds.

[Dan Druff]

I just bet my entire Bodog balance of $938 on Obama winning at -500.

That's how sure I am.

[abrown83]

Buying up a sick amount (for me - about 7% of my investment portfolio) on Romney.

My thought process on this...

The goal of this is very short-term, hoping that Romney wins the debate on Wednesday and bounces back up over $3.

Alternatively, I think the polls will tighten a bit just because the major polling agencies (sans Rasmussen) don't want to risk looking stupid by banking on 2008 turnouts and in turn they might tighten back up inside of the margin of error the next two weeks. That should also lead to a Romney bounce.

If I get a good bounce I might freeroll the chance that Romney might win, after cashing out to get even.

Romney isn't going to win.

It is highly unlikely at this point.

Anyone who wants to bet me on that right now (you send first, obv), I will give you long odds.

I think there are four things the media and general public aren't taking into account.

Republicans are mad as hell.

There are massively fewer minorities registered to vote this election cycle.

The consistent 6-8% oversampling of Democrats (2008 projections vs actual current voter registrations is how you arrive at that) is why Obama and his team are still competing in a bunch of "lean" Obama states.

Romney hasn't blown his load on spending yet. He is going to own radio and television the next month in swing states. Republicans have about 60 million more in cash on hand than the Democrats do.

I still think Obama very well might win, but I am just hoping in a short-term pop (<10 days) on Romney's number on Intrade.

[simpdog]

Anyone who wants to bet me on that right now (you send first, obv), I will give you long odds.

I'll take $100 of Romney @ 100 to 1 odds.

[Rollo Tomasi]

I just bet my entire Bodog balance of $938 on Obama winning at -500.

That's how sure I am.

how much do you want to do giving me 5-1 Todd ???

[lewfather]

Pretty sure abrown is buying at $2 and hoping it goes to $3 and fire off, doesn't really mean he thinks romney is going to win.

CAPITAL GAINS UP ITT YALL

holla back

[abrown83]

Pretty sure abrown is buying at $2 and hoping it goes to $3 and fire off, doesn't really mean he thinks romney is going to win.

CAPITAL GAINS UP ITT YALL

holla back

[RobbieBensonFan]

McCain was ahead of Obama around this time, then the financial crisis hit and it was over.

Romney is definitely behind, but Obama will be whipped in the debates. Romney will be super prepared, we all know that, and when Obama is off the Teleprompter he is cringeworthy.

Will Romney winning the debates be enough? Probably not because a lot of people get a lot of free shit and are motivated to keep it. But there could be a worldwide event that weakens Obama rapidly. Maybe financial as a double dip is on the way it appears. Maybe the Middle East, it is toxic. Then you have this whole Libyan ambassador thing that is beginning to create a life of its own.

Obama has the 'cool factor" which mesmerizes impressionable fans like Dirty B, but even being cool will not be enough with 8+% unemployment coupled with something else. Romney's problem is the fact Obama is an enabler, and those enabled will vote as opposed to those that earn for themselves and might not be paying attention.

The bottom line is Obama's financial policies have been an unmitigated failure. He has dramatically raised the deficit and unemployment is near depression levels, so its a fail. Part of me wants Obama to be re-elected so unemployment will soar to 10% and set the country up for a Reagan like President.

To be fair, he did get OBL, it happened on his watch so he get's that check mark.

[DirtyB]

Beth Meyers, the top Romney campaign adviser, is trying to set expectations for the debates pathetically low.

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics...against-obama/

"Given President Obama’s natural gifts and extensive seasoning under the bright lights of the debate stage, this is unsurprising. President Obama is a uniquely gifted speaker, and is widely regarded as one of the most talented political communicators in modern history. This will be the eighth one-on-one presidential debate of his political career. For Mitt Romney, it will be his first."

[abrown83]

For some reason I knew this thread would slowly slide into a political debate and not the merits of my bet.

[Anal_Hershiser]

For some reason I knew this thread would slowly slide into a political debate and not the merits of my bet.

Your bet is on who will win the presidential election, yet you are surprised when people start debating who will win the presidential election? If not political, WTF type of debate were you expecting about your political bet? Would you post a Super Bowl bet and wonder why people debated who would win?

[abrown83]

For some reason I knew this thread would slowly slide into a political debate and not the merits of my bet.

Your bet is on who will win the presidential election, yet you are surprised when people start debating who will win the presidential election? If not political, WTF type of debate were you expecting about your political bet? Would you post a Super Bowl bet and wonder why people debated who would win?

My bet has nothing to do with who will win the Presidential Election. My bet has to do with short-term trends based on polling and the debates.

I will be out of this bet a solid two weeks prior to the election, unless I try and freeroll a big score on a Romney win.

To put your analogy to use.

It would be like me betting whether or not a player is going to have x amount of yard passing in the Super Bowl. Then people coming in and saying this team is going to win, no this team is going to win. While not getting any feedback if people think my player is going to hit the passing yards mark.

[Anal_Hershiser]

Your bet is on who will win the presidential election, yet you are surprised when people start debating who will win the presidential election? If not political, WTF type of debate were you expecting about your political bet? Would you post a Super Bowl bet and wonder why people debated who would win?

My bet has nothing to do with who will win the Presidential Election. My bet has to do with short-term trends based on polling and the debates.

I will be out of this bet a solid two weeks prior to the election, unless I try and freeroll a big score on a Romney win.

To put your analogy to use.

It would be like me betting whether or not a player is going to have x amount of yard passing in the Super Bowl. Then people coming in and saying this team is going to win, no this team is going to win. While not getting any feedback if people think my player is going to hit the passing yards mark.

You may not be betting on the final outcome, but you are betting on the candidates performance whether it be short term or long term. People ARE going to discuss the winner. Not sure why that is so surprising to you. If you did make that SB bet about passing yards, would you really be surprised if the game itself was discussed? I guess I see what you are saying, I just don't understand why you would expect anything different.

[SixToedPete]

Buying up a sick amount (for me - about 7% of my investment portfolio) on Romney.

My thought process on this...

The goal of this is very short-term, hoping that Romney wins the debate on Wednesday and bounces back up over $3.

Alternatively, I think the polls will tighten a bit just because the major polling agencies (sans Rasmussen) don't want to risk looking stupid by banking on 2008 turnouts and in turn they might tighten back up inside of the margin of error the next two weeks. That should also lead to a Romney bounce.

If I get a good bounce I might freeroll the chance that Romney might win, after cashing out to get even.

Actually a sound investment strategy.

[Kuntmissioner]

You may not be betting on the final outcome, but you are betting on the candidates performance whether it be short term or long term. People ARE going to discuss the winner. Not sure why that is so surprising to you.

rewind...

For some reason I knew this thread would slowly slide into a political debate and not the merits of my bet.

[Anal_Hershiser]

rewind...

For some reason I knew this thread would slowly slide into a political debate and not the merits of my bet.

Anytime someone says "I knew such and such would happen" in the manner he did, it implies an element of surprise even if it isn't specifically stated. At least that's how I read it. If you didn't read it that way, congratulations.

[gut]

For some reason I knew this thread would slowly slide into a political debate and not the merits of my bet.

Your bet is on who will win the presidential election, yet you are surprised when people start debating who will win the presidential election? If not political, WTF type of debate were you expecting about your political bet? Would you post a Super Bowl bet and wonder why people debated who would win?

You were wrong right there. Everything else is just trying to bait him into an argument.

[abrown83]

Out at an average of 3.24.

Will post more specifics later. I have been awake 31 hours in what only can be described as a weird, terrible, and awesome day all rolled into one.

Ninja Edit: Realized I never posted that I got in at an average of 2.21.

[PLOL]

I just bet my entire Bodog balance of $938 on Obama winning at -500.

That's how sure I am.

I'll take Romney at 3 to 1 for any amount.