Asking for good poker advice on hard situation.

[Matt The Rat]

I am writing this email as I just got home still on tilt from busting a tourney. I lost yet another 70% vrs 30% on the turn where I am the 70% to win and all the chips get into the pot. I know there is variance in poker but I have lost literally 10 in a row of these situations. So maybe I need to change the situation so I am not faced making an all in call even when I am ahead only to be sucked out on. The one thing that takes some of the sting away is 10 out of 10 times I made the right decision to call the all in and I was ahead every time. I know in the long run these situations are good for me but still who like risking busting?

Situation: $220 buy in NLHL tourney with 75 people 15K starting 30 min blinds. We are down to 60 people average stack is around 19k and I have 15K. Blinds are 150/300. I get AH QD under the gun. I have an 80 year old agro lady 2 to my left with about 25K. The way the table has been if I raise preflop to 7 or 800 I know I will get 3 callers so I elect to limp. Miss 80 year old agro lady limps, button limps, small blind and big blind are in for the 300. So now there is 1500 in the pot.

Flop is AS TC 5C. I am first to act and fire 1100. Old lady agro raises to 3200. Everyone folds to me. I have played this lady many times and she loves to raise the flush draw. I don't put her on top 2 of AT because she would have raised preflop, same if she had 55 she would have raised preflop. So I think there is a slight chance she has A5 for 2 pair, but most likely she has the flush draw.

I flat call and now there is 7900 in the pot and I have 11.5K left.

Turn is 4H. I look at her and she puts her hand on her stack like she is going to go all in. I check, she snap goes all in. If I call and win the pot I have over 31K and am in the top 5 in chip count in the tourney. This lady has done this move many times in past tourneys and 3 times in the last 90 mins. I think about it for 2 mins and call. She shows AC 2C. She has a flush draw and a gutshot straight draw. So I made a good call, ................... river a club.
I am not to upset about not raising preflop, she would have called anyway.

1> Should I have checked raised her all in on the flop? She is a big bettor and would have bet 2K into a 1500 pot on the flop. If I only check raise her to 5k she would have 4 bet me all in I am sure of it having played with her before. If I check raise her all in most likely she would have folded. But she limped and could of had 2 pair that's why I flat called.

2> When she raised me on the flop should I have went snap all in? Then there would have been 19,700 in the pot and cost her 11,800 more to call and she would be getting 1.7 to 1 on a flush draw. Old people love to chase the flush. Also she would have 10K left even if she loses.

3> Should I have acted first on the turn and went all in knowing most likely if I check and she goes all in I would call anyway? It would be the same odds as option 2, there would have been 19,700 in the pot and cost her 11,800 more to call and she would be getting 1.7 to 1 on a flush draw, but I would have been the one shoving and she would be put to a test and not me.

I am leaning towards option 3 as a better way to play it.

Any real help would be appreciated.

[Dan Druff]

First off, I disagree with limping with AQ. The problem with limping with that hand is that you let in a lot of weird 2-pair and straight hands that can beat you, and it's hard to read that if you flop an ace. Better to just raise pre and eliminate a lot of hands from those who choose to call you.

1> Should I have checked raised her all in on the flop? She is a big bettor and would have bet 2K into a 1500 pot on the flop. If I only check raise her to 5k she would have 4 bet me all in I am sure of it having played with her before. If I check raise her all in most likely she would have folded. But she limped and could of had 2 pair that's why I flat called.

I am not understanding here. If she is aggro and will shove with a draw, how can you differentiate that from a hand that beats you, such as 2-pair? Were you considering folding the flop if she shoved on you? Also, would she have folded to a check-raise if she had a weak ace, such as A6?

2> When she raised me on the flop should I have went snap all in? Then there would have been 19,700 in the pot and cost her 11,800 more to call and she would be getting 1.7 to 1 on a flush draw. Old people love to chase the flush. Also she would have 10K left even if she loses.

Yes, if you can safely put someone on a flush draw or another hand substantially behind yours at the moment, it is smart to shove if you think they will call you.

3> Should I have acted first on the turn and went all in knowing most likely if I check and she goes all in I would call anyway? It would be the same odds as option 2, there would have been 19,700 in the pot and cost her 11,800 more to call and she would be getting 1.7 to 1 on a flush draw, but I would have been the one shoving and she would be put to a test and not me.

Sounds like she wouldn't have folded, anyway.

I would have either check-raised the flop or check-raise-shoved (or check-call-shove) the turn.

[Dan Druff]

Also, don't beat yourself up about losing all the 70/30s.

You are doing the right thing and just getting bad results.

If you were winning every one of those 70/30s and taking down tournament after tournament, you wouldn't be questioning yourself, but instead patting yourself on the back for making those suckers put in their chips with you as the 70% favorite.

You should only question your play if:

1) You are making bad calls or shoves into people ahead of you.
-or-
2) You are taking too many risks in 50-50ish situations, and you are wondering if a more conservative style might work better.

[Matt The Rat]

First off, I disagree with limping with AQ. The problem with limping with that hand is that you let in a lot of weird 2-pair and straight hands that can beat you, and it's hard to read that if you flop an ace. Better to just raise pre and eliminate a lot of hands from those who choose to call you.

Ya ..I guess you have a good point there and that would be the way to do it pre flop in almost all cases. But in this particular sistuation she would have called preflop with her stack and agro style, but not knowing what she had I could not have known that. Raising preflop is the correct way. Its weird because in most cases I do raise pre flop with AQ UTG. I just thought I would get 3 or 4 callers at that table at that time and didn't want a huge pot with AQ.

I am not understanding here. If she is aggro and will shove with a draw, how can you differentiate that from a hand that beats you, such as 2-pair? Were you considering folding the flop if she shoved on you? Also, would she have folded to a check-raise if she had a weak ace, such as A6?

I just meant there was a much higher chance she had a flush draw rather than 2 pair. If she only had a weak Ace with no flush draw she would not have reraised the flop and folded to a pot sized turn bet, especially with my table image. If I checked the flop and she shoved 20K into a 1500 pot I would have folded.

Yes, if you can safely put someone on a flush draw or another hand substantially behind yours at the moment, it is smart to shove if you think they will call you.

Yes, .. my read was correct but obviously I was not 100% certain thus the check on the turn. If I am sure someone is substantially behind me a large raise and sometimes depending on stack sizes an all in is good. Ussually I dont go all in with a large stack unless I have a set or better, most times with a large stack I will only do this with the nuts. No need to risk a large stack even if you think you are ahead, the one time you are wrong you get crippled.

Sounds like she wouldn't have folded, anyway.

Correct, with top pair, flush and straight draw and covers me by 10K she is not folding.

I would have either check-raised the flop or check-raise-shoved (or check-call-shove) the turn.

I think check shove the flop is the only way I might get her off the hand. All other possibilities and there is too much in the pot and too many outs for her to fold. I just hate risking like 12K for a 4K pot.

Thanks

[Mad Dad]

You played it to trap with TPGK. This is one of many choices. You in fact trapped the lady. What hand goes all in in that spot - she obviously wants a fold and she knows she has outs. You were pretty sure you knew what she had when you called. She was playing her hand pretty much face up based on your reads. You got outdrawn.

Could you have played the hand differently - of course - but you played it a certain way based on your reads, style, game plan etc - got your chips in confidently thinking you were good and you were good and you just got outdrawn. No fun when it happens, but it happens all the time. 70/30 is just that, 70/30.

[Matt The Rat]

You played it to trap with TPGK. This is one of many choices. You in fact trapped the lady. What hand goes all in in that spot - she obviously wants a fold and she knows she has outs. You were pretty sure you knew what she had when you called. She was playing her hand pretty much face up based on your reads. You got outdrawn.

Could you have played the hand differently - of course - but you played it a certain way based on your reads, style, game plan etc - got your chips in confidently thinking you were good and you were good and you just got outdrawn. No fun when it happens, but it happens all the time. 70/30 is just that, 70/30.

Ya just been happening alot lately for me and that is poker variance. I was just wondering of different ways I can avoid the 70/30 sistuation even thogh I am ahead....because you will lose 30% of the time and in a tourney that can kill you. I dont mind if I am in the money allready.

The good news is eventually it will go my way. And with the WSOP Circuit comming to my town next month I hope tha's when things turn around

Thanks for the input