I am writing this email as I just got home still on tilt from busting a tourney. I lost yet another 70% vrs 30% on the turn where I am the 70% to win and all the chips get into the pot. I know there is variance in poker but I have lost literally 10 in a row of these situations. So maybe I need to change the situation so I am not faced making an all in call even when I am ahead only to be sucked out on. The one thing that takes some of the sting away is 10 out of 10 times I made the right decision to call the all in and I was ahead every time. I know in the long run these situations are good for me but still who like risking busting?
Situation: $220 buy in NLHL tourney with 75 people 15K starting 30 min blinds. We are down to 60 people average stack is around 19k and I have 15K. Blinds are 150/300. I get AH QD under the gun. I have an 80 year old agro lady 2 to my left with about 25K. The way the table has been if I raise preflop to 7 or 800 I know I will get 3 callers so I elect to limp. Miss 80 year old agro lady limps, button limps, small blind and big blind are in for the 300. So now there is 1500 in the pot.
Flop is AS TC 5C. I am first to act and fire 1100. Old lady agro raises to 3200. Everyone folds to me. I have played this lady many times and she loves to raise the flush draw. I don't put her on top 2 of AT because she would have raised preflop, same if she had 55 she would have raised preflop. So I think there is a slight chance she has A5 for 2 pair, but most likely she has the flush draw.
I flat call and now there is 7900 in the pot and I have 11.5K left.
Turn is 4H. I look at her and she puts her hand on her stack like she is going to go all in. I check, she snap goes all in. If I call and win the pot I have over 31K and am in the top 5 in chip count in the tourney. This lady has done this move many times in past tourneys and 3 times in the last 90 mins. I think about it for 2 mins and call. She shows AC 2C. She has a flush draw and a gutshot straight draw. So I made a good call, ................... river a club.
I am not to upset about not raising preflop, she would have called anyway.
1> Should I have checked raised her all in on the flop? She is a big bettor and would have bet 2K into a 1500 pot on the flop. If I only check raise her to 5k she would have 4 bet me all in I am sure of it having played with her before. If I check raise her all in most likely she would have folded. But she limped and could of had 2 pair that's why I flat called.
2> When she raised me on the flop should I have went snap all in? Then there would have been 19,700 in the pot and cost her 11,800 more to call and she would be getting 1.7 to 1 on a flush draw. Old people love to chase the flush. Also she would have 10K left even if she loses.
3> Should I have acted first on the turn and went all in knowing most likely if I check and she goes all in I would call anyway? It would be the same odds as option 2, there would have been 19,700 in the pot and cost her 11,800 more to call and she would be getting 1.7 to 1 on a flush draw, but I would have been the one shoving and she would be put to a test and not me.
I am leaning towards option 3 as a better way to play it.
Any real help would be appreciated.