Track puts it tracking NNW from Baja into Southern Cali passing East of LA probably over San Bernardino County and then into NV west of Las Vegas and probably towards Reno. Likely wind field and rain will spread far and wide. I’d be legit concerned of
Significant flooding in Vegas and the whole Metro area. Homeless could be at risk in the tunnels.
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Chaps' 2017-18 NFL $$ Thread
I have been asked by some people regarding my assessment of this hurricane, given that I live in the to-be-affected area.
I was waiting for bottomset to comment, but since we aren't seeing his analysis, I will take the reins.
This is indeed an unusual eastern Pacific hurricane, as it's going to be pushed much farther north than typically seen. However, LA is basically hurricane-proof, due to the year-round cold Pacific ocean surrounding it. The cool ocean temperature which makes LA beaches shitty also protects it from hurricanes.
Hurricanes can't survive over cold water. It kills them very rapidly. There has been one hurricane in California since they were being tracked in the 1800s. Nobody can tell you about it, because it occurred in 1858. It mostly hit San Diego, but might have gotten as far as Long Beach (southern LA County). Since it was 1858, there was no footage of the hurricane -- only written descriptions. The description definitely makes it seem as if a real hurricane hit San Diego, but it may have weakened to a tropical storm by the time it got to Orange County and Long Beach.
In the 165 years since, there have definitely been no hurricanes in southern California. Last year, Hurricane Kay was thought to possibly hit California, but not only had it degraded to a TS by the time it got into US waters, but it also never made landfall. Instead, California got associated storms, most notably which flooded Death Valley and damaged some cars and roads there.
In fact, aside from the 1858 hurricane/TS, California has had only one tropical storm and one tropical depression make landfall. The TS was in 1939, which caused a lot of flooding and killed 45 people. Note that street and landscaping drainage was not as good then as it is today.
The TD was in 1978, and was best known for destroying the state's raisin crop due to the sudden heavy rains. There were four tragic and bizarre deaths in a September blizzard on Mt. Whitney (the highest mountain in the continental US), where four hikers died due to not being prepared for such a fluke event.
So what do I think will happen regarding Hillary?
I think it will hit San Diego as a TS, and the Los Angeles area as a TD. So we will probably have California fourth TD-or-higher in recorded history, but it's probably not going to be a big deal, except in San Diego and some inland areas where very heavy rain is expected.
Keep in mind that LA gets plenty of winter rainstorms which come with high wind. In the area I live now, winter storms with a few inches of rain and winds from 50-70mph are not uncommon. This past winter, one of them blocked a major road here for a bit due to ripping a portion of a tree off, which fell in the road. (Nobody was hit.)
I told fellow LA-area residents, "Picture this as a big winter storm except warmer. That's all this is going to be."
Maybe I'll be proven wrong, but I don't think so.
Incidentally, the really unusual thing here is the fact that a storm producing substantial rain is appearing in LA/SD at all. These southern California coastal areas usually get zero point zero inches of rain in July and August, and if any rain does fall, it's small amounts from remnants of distant hurricanes. This will be the first time in my life that I will see a storm with 1+ inches of rain in Los Angeles in August.
Apparnelty for the first time ever they issued a Tropical Storm Watch for LA. The biggest risk really is going to be east of LA especially as it starts to fall apart and the rain and wind field widen out. The last i heard some places expected to see a years worth of rain in a day. Not sure how much we will see here but when Norbert came through AZ crossing as a TS it shut down 2 major freeways when the storm pumps couldn’t handle the deluge of rain.Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I have been asked by some people regarding my assessment of this hurricane, given that I live in the to-be-affected area.
I was waiting for bottomset to comment, but since we aren't seeing his analysis, I will take the reins.
This is indeed an unusual eastern Pacific hurricane, as it's going to be pushed much farther north than typically seen. However, LA is basically hurricane-proof, due to the year-round cold Pacific ocean surrounding it. The cool ocean temperature which makes LA beaches shitty also protects it from hurricanes.
Hurricanes can't survive over cold water. It kills them very rapidly. There has been one hurricane in California since they were being tracked in the 1800s. Nobody can tell you about it, because it occurred in 1858. It mostly hit San Diego, but might have gotten as far as Long Beach (southern LA County). Since it was 1858, there was no footage of the hurricane -- only written descriptions. The description definitely makes it seem as if a real hurricane hit San Diego, but it may have weakened to a tropical storm by the time it got to Orange County and Long Beach.
In the 165 years since, there have definitely been no hurricanes in southern California. Last year, Hurricane Kay was thought to possibly hit California, but not only had it degraded to a TS by the time it got into US waters, but it also never made landfall. Instead, California got associated storms, most notably which flooded Death Valley and damaged some cars and roads there.
In fact, aside from the 1858 hurricane/TS, California has had only one tropical storm and one tropical depression make landfall. The TS was in 1939, which caused a lot of flooding and killed 45 people. Note that street and landscaping drainage was not as good then as it is today.
The TD was in 1978, and was best known for destroying the state's raisin crop due to the sudden heavy rains. There were four tragic and bizarre deaths in a September blizzard on Mt. Whitney (the highest mountain in the continental US), where four hikers died due to not being prepared for such a fluke event.
So what do I think will happen regarding Hillary?
I think it will hit San Diego as a TS, and the Los Angeles area as a TD. So we will probably have California fourth TD-or-higher in recorded history, but it's probably not going to be a big deal, except in San Diego and some inland areas where very heavy rain is expected.
Keep in mind that LA gets plenty of winter rainstorms which come with high wind. In the area I live now, winter storms with a few inches of rain and winds from 50-70mph are not uncommon. This past winter, one of them blocked a major road here for a bit due to ripping a portion of a tree off, which fell in the road. (Nobody was hit.)
I told fellow LA-area residents, "Picture this as a big winter storm except warmer. That's all this is going to be."
Maybe I'll be proven wrong, but I don't think so.
Incidentally, the really unusual thing here is the fact that a storm producing substantial rain is appearing in LA/SD at all. These southern California coastal areas usually get zero point zero inches of rain in July and August, and if any rain does fall, it's small amounts from remnants of distant hurricanes. This will be the first time in my life that I will see a storm with 1+ inches of rain in Los Angeles in August.
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Slow moving tropical systems are devastating. People don't realize, historically, most damage is done by fresh water rain, just look at Hurricane Harvey, it camped out over Houston for two days and is the second most expensive storm ever behind Katrina.
If So Cal gets say 10 inches of rain its going to be rough. It the storm stalls and it gets 20 inches, obviously a catastrophe. I really only follow Atlantic and Gulf storms so sitting this one out in the Pacific. The Atlantic is heating up, my attention is diverted. Needed elsewhere on other message boards.
It's nothing but Trump will try to use his power to stop her anyway.
present view in vegas. no idea if related to hurricane. cable tv in room just went out.
ATTACH]69222[/ATTACH]
FYI for those sports bettors out there. Padres Dodgers and Angels now all playing Double Headers Saturday due expected issues from Hillary on Sunday.
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I drove Vegas to Tahoe yesterday. There have been intermittent thunderstorms out in the desert lately. Tahoe is pretty ugly today. Really weird, no wind but heavy waves.
I drove Vegas to Tahoe yesterday. There have been intermittent thunderstorms out in the desert lately. Tahoe is pretty ugly today. Really weird, no wind but heavy waves.
what is that drive like? i've always thought of making it. I've done Reno to Tahoe many times, but never from all the way down here. Tahoe is the nuts.
Dan, I'm also shocked that a Hurricane is coming to CALIFORNIA. :O I had never heard of California getting Hurricanes before, Florida yes, California no. :O
Shouldn't we just drop a nuke on this storm and call it a day?
druff in a canoe with his giant clown feet in galoshes would be elite content
It’s been a lost summer on the east coast. It’s pouring in this shotI drove Vegas to Tahoe yesterday. There have been intermittent thunderstorms out in the desert lately. Tahoe is pretty ugly today. Really weird, no wind but heavy waves.
Marty this is your calling we could use you as a storm chaser to document this. Broadcast this live on X
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Boring as fuck.
I drove Vegas to Tahoe yesterday. There have been intermittent thunderstorms out in the desert lately. Tahoe is pretty ugly today. Really weird, no wind but heavy waves.
what is that drive like? i've always thought of making it. I've done Reno to Tahoe many times, but never from all the way down here. Tahoe is the nuts.
Can you remember an August with this much rain?It’s been a lost summer on the east coast. It’s pouring in this shot
I drove Vegas to Tahoe yesterday. There have been intermittent thunderstorms out in the desert lately. Tahoe is pretty ugly today. Really weird, no wind but heavy waves.
Grass is green and mowing it at least once a week.
Hurricane Harvey was a treat. 40 inches of rain at my house.
Many years ago the Army Corp of Engineers wanted to widen Buffalo Bayou and concrete it to stop erosion and prevent flooding. Environmentalists and residents along the bayou in the richer parts of Houston stopped it and made the area along the Bayou a park which was named for the main opponent of changing the bayou, Terry Hershey.
It is a nice place to ride a bike etc and the nature is nice but every house and business along that bayou in that park flooded during Harvey. Lawsuits out the wazoo now aimed at the corps of engineers who opened the floodgates vs letting the dam/levee fail. It will be interesting to see what happens next major storm as building has not slowed at all.
Shame Terry died 7 months before the fruits of her labor ruined so many people.
Last edited by Texter; 08-19-2023 at 12:38 PM.
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