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Thread: *** OFFICIAL *** MLB 2023 Thread

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    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    *** OFFICIAL *** MLB 2023 Thread

    Yankees won't say if they're talking with Aaron Judge regarding signing him as a free agent: https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...ut-aaron-judge

    Judge not only had 62 HR, but also hit .311 and managed a .425 OBP. Amazingly, it's not even clear if he will win the MVP, as Shohei Ohtani is also contending for the award, given his stellar two-way season.

    While Judge had one of the best offensive seasons of all time, signing him long term to a monster contract carries a little risk. He was injured in 2018, 2019, and 2020, and played only about 60% of the time over that stretch. He was healthy in 2021 and 2022, but as he ages, this becomes a concern.

    And his age is the second thing. He's going to be 31 a few weeks into the 2023 season. Will the Aaron Judge of 2028 be like the one we saw in 2022? Probably not. Will the Aaron Judge of 2031 even be viable as a Major League player? Possibly not. Giving him any more than 6 years is probably a big mistake, unless the extra years are cooked into the contract as throwaway years, where you're essentially deferring money.

    Right now it is projected that he'll get something like a $300 million deal, which is insane given that these will be his age 31+ years, and he's not a pitcher.

    The Dodgers and Giants are considered the two frontrunners for him, especially if Trea Turner (who seems to prefer the east coast) goes elsewhere. The Giants want to get back to respectability after a disappointing failseason following their 107-win campaign in 2021.

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    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Yankees won't say if they're talking with Aaron Judge regarding signing him as a free agent: https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...ut-aaron-judge

    Judge not only had 62 HR, but also hit .311 and managed a .425 OBP. Amazingly, it's not even clear if he will win the MVP, as Shohei Ohtani is also contending for the award, given his stellar two-way season.

    While Judge had one of the best offensive seasons of all time, signing him long term to a monster contract carries a little risk. He was injured in 2018, 2019, and 2020, and played only about 60% of the time over that stretch. He was healthy in 2021 and 2022, but as he ages, this becomes a concern.

    And his age is the second thing. He's going to be 31 a few weeks into the 2023 season. Will the Aaron Judge of 2028 be like the one we saw in 2022? Probably not. Will the Aaron Judge of 2031 even be viable as a Major League player? Possibly not. Giving him any more than 6 years is probably a big mistake, unless the extra years are cooked into the contract as throwaway years, where you're essentially deferring money.

    Right now it is projected that he'll get something like a $300 million deal, which is insane given that these will be his age 31+ years, and he's not a pitcher.

    The Dodgers and Giants are considered the two frontrunners for him, especially if Trea Turner (who seems to prefer the east coast) goes elsewhere. The Giants want to get back to respectability after a disappointing failseason following their 107-win campaign in 2021.
    Dodgers need to focus on shortstop. Gavin Lux is massively flawed defensively. I swear he never learned how to throw a baseball. He isn’t the answer.

    I think you are aware speed on the bases is going to be hugely important next year due to rules changes. Or you could continue the 3 outcome approach.

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    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Yankees won't say if they're talking with Aaron Judge regarding signing him as a free agent: https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...ut-aaron-judge

    Judge not only had 62 HR, but also hit .311 and managed a .425 OBP. Amazingly, it's not even clear if he will win the MVP, as Shohei Ohtani is also contending for the award, given his stellar two-way season.

    While Judge had one of the best offensive seasons of all time, signing him long term to a monster contract carries a little risk. He was injured in 2018, 2019, and 2020, and played only about 60% of the time over that stretch. He was healthy in 2021 and 2022, but as he ages, this becomes a concern.

    And his age is the second thing. He's going to be 31 a few weeks into the 2023 season. Will the Aaron Judge of 2028 be like the one we saw in 2022? Probably not. Will the Aaron Judge of 2031 even be viable as a Major League player? Possibly not. Giving him any more than 6 years is probably a big mistake, unless the extra years are cooked into the contract as throwaway years, where you're essentially deferring money.

    Right now it is projected that he'll get something like a $300 million deal, which is insane given that these will be his age 31+ years, and he's not a pitcher.

    The Dodgers and Giants are considered the two frontrunners for him, especially if Trea Turner (who seems to prefer the east coast) goes elsewhere. The Giants want to get back to respectability after a disappointing failseason following their 107-win campaign in 2021.
    Dodgers need to focus on shortstop. Gavin Lux is massively flawed defensively. I swear he never learned how to throw a baseball. He isnít the answer.

    I think you are aware speed on the bases is going to be hugely important next year due to rules changes. Or you could continue the 3 outcome approach.
    Yeah next year is going to be a huge difference with the shift banning. Really going to change stats for a lot of players. I'm going to research this before the April fantasy draft.

    Interestingly enough, Trea Turner's poor defense was really the catalyst to the Dodgers' collapse in this NLDS. I agree Lux is very questionable defensively.

    Dodgers also aren't even talking to Justin Turner right now. He put a sort of passive-aggressive complaint through the media about that. I don't see them grabbing his $16 million option. Dude is 38 next month, and looked like an old man in the playoffs. Dodgers need to let him go or sign him for cheap and not expect much.

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    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    With regard to speed - I was thinking of this :

    Pitchers are limited to two disengagements (pickoff attempts or step-offs) per plate appearance. However, this limit is reset if a runner or runners advance during the plate appearance.

    If a third pickoff attempt is made, the runner automatically advances one base if the pickoff attempt is not successful.



    Players gonna be running like crazy. Gimme fast guys like Trea Turner

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    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Sadly, Trea is one of those players who appears not to thrive under the bright lights and pressure.

    We know players like that.

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    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Edwin Diaz just got $102 million to pitch one inning every so often.

    https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...2-million-deal


    Staying with the Mets. Pretty sweet to pull up with a 1.31 ERA and a 17 K/9 on your contract year.

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    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    PFA is pleased to announce that Clayton Kershaw signed a one year deal with the Dodgers.

    The fail wonít last forever though. Cherish

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    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Dodgers and Kershaw are gonna keep signing 1-year deals until he declares that he and his aching back are done.

    He will be 35 in 2023. He's not going to restart his career with any other team. He was briefly considering the Rangers last year, because he grew up in that area, before coming to his senses and realizing that it wasn't a wise move to play out his final years on a failteam.

    Keep in mind he also treated his dating life the same way. He's been with the same girl since high school, probably the only one he's ever touched in his life. Unlike most ballplayers who fuck around on the road, I would guess Kershaw has never done that.

    Kershaw is one of the rare modern career-long 1-team players. Unlike Freddie Freeman, who also wanted to be a 1-team player and had his hometown as a second choice, there is no large contract to dick around with here. This will be a year-by-year thing, until Clayton said, "Yeah I'm done", and that will be that.

    Since Clayton is not one of those players who wants to spend his last few years being terrible or injured almost the whole season (he's a perfectionist, so he couldn't stomach this), so the Dodgers don't need to worry about him outstaying his welcome.

    It's no longer a question of when Kershaw leaves -- it's a question of when he retires.

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    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    There is no question Kershaw is a good guy. A quality human being.. in sports, no less. That might be his problem.

    Relievers are an extreme example of baseball players who are “off”. You cannot be wired like a normal human and survive.

    My kid and his friends used to ridicule Karinchek for being a fidgety, nut. They went into accounting and Karincheck is on tv.


    Scherzer immediately springs to mind as a current example of a completely crazy competitive animal. The boy ain’t right and never has been. I never delved into his life pre college but something went haywire.

    Kershaw is simple well adjusted and happy. I’m not even sure baseball didn’t pick him instead of him picking baseball.

    It just didn’t work out for him.

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    Plutonium simpdog's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Edwin Diaz just got $102 million to pitch one inning every so often.

    https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...2-million-deal


    Staying with the Mets. Pretty sweet to pull up with a 1.31 ERA and a 17 K/9 on your contract year.
    And he gets paid until 2042 lol.

    Bobby Bonilla would be proud, his payments finally end in 2035.

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    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Bellinger was non-tendered.

    https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...ngeles-dodgers

    Dodgers had one more year of him before free agency, but they're letting him go. Why? Because the broken arbitration system would have awarded Bellinger $18 million, and he's not worth that. Besides, even if somehow Bellinger hits unexpectedly well, he's a free agent for 2024, and then where do they go? So keeping him for $18m just didn't make sense.

    This is a great example of how they need to fix the arb system. The system was designed to reward good players before they become free agents, but it's insane that even rich teams like the Dodgers are releasing their own homegrown players because the arb system will overpay them. The arb system should be a lot more performance-dependent -- to where very productive players get the big money, but struggling players can be paid a reduced rate.

    He's not necessarily leaving LA, though I'm guessing it's more likely than not that he goes elsewhere. The Dodgers still might sign him in a cheaper multiyear deal. I'm guessing he finds some team willing to gamble on him, especially since a change of scenery can help him.

    Basically his hitting has been shit since he injured his shoulder in that stupid shoulder bump following a home run. I'm not sure if it's lingering physical issues, or if he just fell into bad habits since coming back, and can't break out. Or both.

    I think some teams will try to take a shot with him because his OF defense is so good. Even if he hits like an average outfielder, his defense is good enough to make him valuable. So he doesn't need to destroy the world with his bat in order to make decent money -- just stop hitting .200 and popping/striking out so often.

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    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Bellinger was non-tendered.

    https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...ngeles-dodgers

    Dodgers had one more year of him before free agency, but they're letting him go. Why? Because the broken arbitration system would have awarded Bellinger $18 million, and he's not worth that. Besides, even if somehow Bellinger hits unexpectedly well, he's a free agent for 2024, and then where do they go? So keeping him for $18m just didn't make sense.

    This is a great example of how they need to fix the arb system. The system was designed to reward good players before they become free agents, but it's insane that even rich teams like the Dodgers are releasing their own homegrown players because the arb system will overpay them. The arb system should be a lot more performance-dependent -- to where very productive players get the big money, but struggling players can be paid a reduced rate.

    He's not necessarily leaving LA, though I'm guessing it's more likely than not that he goes elsewhere. The Dodgers still might sign him in a cheaper multiyear deal. I'm guessing he finds some team willing to gamble on him, especially since a change of scenery can help him.

    Basically his hitting has been shit since he injured his shoulder in that stupid shoulder bump following a home run. I'm not sure if it's lingering physical issues, or if he just fell into bad habits since coming back, and can't break out. Or both.

    I think some teams will try to take a shot with him because his OF defense is so good. Even if he hits like an average outfielder, his defense is good enough to make him valuable. So he doesn't need to destroy the world with his bat in order to make decent money -- just stop hitting .200 and popping/striking out so often.
    I’m not following your outrage over the arb $18m. He earned $17m last year. Money has nothing to do with the story. Bellinger was overplayed at $17m.

    What you are really saying Druff is that YOU want Bellinger. Not following that either. His defense? No idea - hot mom? Offer to drive him to the airport.

    Bellinger is not taking a pay cut with Scott Boras as an agent. Wether this serves Bellinger’s interests or not is another story completely. Boras comes first.

    There might be some mid market team that thinks they can FIX Bellinger. It has long been leaked that Bellinger would not take instruction from the Dodgers. The Dodgers is the team that fixes marginal players. Think Justin Turner, I suppose. My take has always been that Bellinger is (to be kind) not very smart. He was incapable of adjusting.

    Some team will take Boras’s trash (Bellinger) in exchange for a first look at his other wares in the future. Maybe a team with a bandbox like Toronto, NYY or Boston. Stupid cause it ain’t the size of the park but the size of the hole in that big goof’s swing.

    Andrew Fraudman ought to move on. He needs to be free to do something stupid like Aaron Judge in RF, move Mookie to CF and Gavin Lux at shortstop. 3 huge mistakes

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    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    The arb for $17m was also too high, but at least the Dodgers could rationalize that:

    1) Bellinger had only been bad for 2 years, and one was a 60-gamer

    2) Bellinger got hurt at the end of 2019 and maybe still needed to recover a bit more

    3) If he did return to form, they'd have one more year (2023) to observe him before deciding what to do in free agency


    The farther it gets from Bellinger's effective 2019 season, the less his value becomes. That's why it's insane that he would get $18m in arbitration, when clearly he isn't worth that. This policy simply forces homegrown players to be non-tendered when the team would otherwise like to keep them at what they're really worth.

    You're correct that Boras probably isn't going to let him take a pay cut -- not unless that's the very last option. That's why I think Bellinger is done in LA. Maybe they'll find a team dumb enough to give him a decent size, multi-year contract, but they saw the Dodgers fail to fix him in 3 seasons. He's more of a reclamation project at this point.

    For all the talk of reclamation projects, though, the Dodgers haven't fared much better than anyone else at that. What they have been good at doing is taking players who never succeeded (Justin Turner, Chris Taylor, Max Muncy, and most recently Tyler Anderson), and making them useful.

    And as much as Judge might mash for the next year, two, or three, I hope the Dodgers don't sign him. That contract has fail written all over it.

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    Platinum GrenadaRoger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    The arb for $17m was also too high, but at least the Dodgers could rationalize that:

    1) Bellinger had only been bad for 2 years, and one was a 60-gamer

    2) Bellinger got hurt at the end of 2019 and maybe still needed to recover a bit more

    3) If he did return to form, they'd have one more year (2023) to observe him before deciding what to do in free agency


    The farther it gets from Bellinger's effective 2019 season, the less his value becomes. That's why it's insane that he would get $18m in arbitration, when clearly he isn't worth that. This policy simply forces homegrown players to be non-tendered when the team would otherwise like to keep them at what they're really worth.

    You're correct that Boras probably isn't going to let him take a pay cut -- not unless that's the very last option. That's why I think Bellinger is done in LA. Maybe they'll find a team dumb enough to give him a decent size, multi-year contract, but they saw the Dodgers fail to fix him in 3 seasons. He's more of a reclamation project at this point.

    For all the talk of reclamation projects, though, the Dodgers haven't fared much better than anyone else at that. What they have been good at doing is taking players who never succeeded (Justin Turner, Chris Taylor, Max Muncy, and most recently Tyler Anderson), and making them useful.

    And as much as Judge might mash for the next year, two, or three, I hope the Dodgers don't sign him. That contract has fail written all over it.
    Bellinger rumored to have the Cubs interest? Really? The Cubs just got rid of Jason Heyward & they would take on another just like him in Bellinger?
    (long before there was a PFA i had my Grenade & Crossbones avatar at DD)

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    All Sorts of Sports gut's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GrenadaRoger View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    The arb for $17m was also too high, but at least the Dodgers could rationalize that:

    1) Bellinger had only been bad for 2 years, and one was a 60-gamer

    2) Bellinger got hurt at the end of 2019 and maybe still needed to recover a bit more

    3) If he did return to form, they'd have one more year (2023) to observe him before deciding what to do in free agency


    The farther it gets from Bellinger's effective 2019 season, the less his value becomes. That's why it's insane that he would get $18m in arbitration, when clearly he isn't worth that. This policy simply forces homegrown players to be non-tendered when the team would otherwise like to keep them at what they're really worth.

    You're correct that Boras probably isn't going to let him take a pay cut -- not unless that's the very last option. That's why I think Bellinger is done in LA. Maybe they'll find a team dumb enough to give him a decent size, multi-year contract, but they saw the Dodgers fail to fix him in 3 seasons. He's more of a reclamation project at this point.

    For all the talk of reclamation projects, though, the Dodgers haven't fared much better than anyone else at that. What they have been good at doing is taking players who never succeeded (Justin Turner, Chris Taylor, Max Muncy, and most recently Tyler Anderson), and making them useful.

    And as much as Judge might mash for the next year, two, or three, I hope the Dodgers don't sign him. That contract has fail written all over it.
    Bellinger rumored to have the Cubs interest? Really? The Cubs just got rid of Jason Heyward & they would take on another just like him in Bellinger?
    He is a perfect match for current day Cubs, at least from a PR basis. Owners being cheap-as-fuck, but signing Cody to a moderate deal the headlines for the casual fans will read "Cubs sign 2019 NL MVP"

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    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    A lot of early snapping up of the big stars.

    Degrom signs with Texas, for 5 years, $185m. Risky given his recent injury history, but could be a good start in making Texas finally competitive. Andrew Heaney will be joining Degrom in Texas, signing a 2-year contract which will be worth between $25m and $37m, depending upon incentives hit.

    Trea Turner signed a whopping 11-year deal with the Phillies, which will end when he's 40, worth $300m. This is somewhat risky, as Turner is not a great defender, and his value will go down considerably when he ages a bit more and can't run as fast. Turner is the second Dodgers SS in two years to leave the team in free agency and sign a monster contract elsewhere.

    Cody Bellinger will be going back to the blue -- but not the blue you think. He will be with the Cubs, as he just signed a $17.5m deal with them for one year.

    Justin Verlander is almost 40, but that didn't stop the Mets from giving him huge money for the next two years. He signed a 2-year, $86m contract. He will be 40 years old in February. He considered going to the Dodgers instead, because his wife Kate Upton preferred LA, but ultimately decided upon the Mets.

    Josh Bell joined the Indians for two years. He got 2 years, $33m. Should be a decent, albeit unspectacular contributor to BCR's team. He has an .812 OPS over the past 6 years, with 127 HR, and has played in 93% of the games, so he's been durable.

    We will probably have another Japanese star in MLB this year. Masataka Yoshida, 29, will likely post tomorrow, and will be available to sign with MLB teams. Yoshida is an outfielder with a high batting average and decent power. Over the past two seasons, he's had the best OPS in Japan. I have him kept in my NL only fantasy league, so of course I'm rooting for him to end up in the NL. Incidentally, the Dodgers do need an outfielder now...

     
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    Bronze LegalizeMeth's Avatar
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    Tried to mention Teoscar traded to the M's a couple of weeks ago also

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    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    I kept hearing Trea Turner would leave the Dodgers because he wanted to be on the east coast. But I didn't know how badly he wanted to go east.

    The Padres tried to offer something like $350m to Trea, but he refused, and took $300m (over 11 years, no less) to stay with the Phillies. Wow.


    Speaking of the Phillies, somehow they just wasted $72m on Taijuan Walker. Not a fan of this signing. Walker is one of those guys they say is supposed to be a star one day, but just never gets there.

    He had 2 mediocre seasons in Seattle, 1 in Arizona, and then barely pitched from 2018-20 (10 starts total). 2021 saw a 4.47 ERA. 2022 was good (3.49/1.195) but not great. Still only fanned 132 in 157 IP, over 29 starts.

  19. #19
    All Sorts of Sports gut's Avatar
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    Not too happy about the crickets out of the Twin Cities thus far. Seems like Twins are focusing all attention on keeping Correa. Could use a couple veteran arms, and a catcher...not just the SS.

    They did, however, have great luck in the first year of MLB using a lottery for the draft order. Twins would have had the #13 pick under the old system, instead they lotto'd up to #5.
    Last edited by gut; 12-06-2022 at 09:25 PM.

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    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    speaking of Trea Turner

    I bet the Dodgers ownership thought about trying to lure Dave Dombrowski to LA.

    He resigned with Phillies

    Meanwhile Boston is stuck with Dombrowski’s replacement and Andrew Fraudman protege Chiam Bloom. Boston will not see the light of day until Bloom is shitcanned.

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