Originally Posted by
NaturalBornHustler
538/NYT is now predicting a 30% chance of 56-44 Senate.
That is how bad it is for the groomers.
Where are the 56 going to come from?
Assuming all big R leaders go on to win, the GOP would need 7 additional victories.
They will probably win in PA, NV, and GA. Might win in AZ and NH. But that's only 54.
They would need CO and WA to make 56, and those are looking pretty unlikely. Keep in mind CO has been trending bluer with each election.
I think the best realistic case for the GOP is 54-46, and the worst case is 49-51, though 54 is a lot more likely than 49, because that would require the GOP to lose both PA and GA (plus all the others I listed), which isn't likely at this point.
I still think Drazan wins in OR and becomes the first R governor there in 40 years. However, the last two polls showing some D voters who went to Johnson (Independent) "coming home" reluctantly to Kotek. So I guess we'll see.
Kathy Hochul could be the shock loser in NY, similar to 1994 when Pataki surprised Mario Cuomo. In 1994, aside from a red wave coming throughout the country, Cuomo also had the problem of lacking support outside of NYC. That might be the same issue this time, except it might be even worse in NYC, as the city has turned to absolute shit under Democratic rule recently. NYC was also shit in 1994, but rebounded in the mid-90s (thanks to Rudy Giuliani, who doesn't get enough credit for it).
The mail-in voting is going to create a huge hassle again, with conspiracy theories galore. The problem is that uncounted mail-in ballots, which favor Democrats, will be the latest votes tallied, thus making it appear like the election was "stolen" in close ones which go to Democrats. They really need to just do away with this shit. Even if the security of such voting isn't a problem (which I have my doubts about), it's bad optics at a time when trust in our electoral process is at an all-time low. Furthermore, early voting fucks up the election, as late-breaking changes (such as Fetterman's horrible debate performance) become less impactful. There's a reason we have an election day.
Anyway, I think tomorrow will be a better-than-expected day for Republicans. I have a feeling that people are afraid to reveal their true feelings to pollsters, given the social media shaming that goes on against the GOP nowadays. If you work for a company where your chances for advancement will be hindered by admitting you vote Republican, you might just lie to a pollster, as that's the safest way to go about things.
Nevada might be a dark horse for Democrats to unexpectedly win. While I think the GOP will take both the gubernatorial and Senate races, I wouldn't be shocked to see this go to the Dems. Nevada kinda beats to its own drum. Remember, it was one of just two "swing" states (the other being Colorado) where Hillary outperformed polling expectations.
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