Let's get a discussion going regarding the midterm election coming up in a few weeks.
Preferred topics of discussion are the November gubernatorial, Senate, and House races.
Please do not turn this thread into trolling or shitposting.
Hopefully we can make a bit of money, as well, on what remains of PredictIt.
I can't wait for the non partisan level headed debates to populate this thread.Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Oh I get it, it's a gamble on who wins and ultimately that's most important.
Same with investments. When you stand to make or lose money your ethics are challenged.
The Pete Rose syndrome.
Let's discuss the gubernatorial races.
Safe Democrat
Michigan - Whitmer up anywhere from 0 to 11 points, depending which poll you listen to, but she's not going to lose this. Somehow she never had to face the music for the nursing home deaths she caused in 2020 (similar to what Andrew Cuomo did).
Minnesota - Some points have Walz up as much as 12. No poll has him up less than 3, and Minnesota is a blue state.
New York - Hochul is up 17 in one poll a few weeks ago, and even GOP-friendly Trafalgar has her up 5 in this very blue state.
New Mexico - Lujan-Grisham is up double-digits in more than one poll, and is not going to lose this increasingly blue state. This is not even worth watching.
Pennsylvania - Had the GOP put up a good candidate, they could have had a shot here. Instead, Trump-backed Mastriano is seen as too extreme by most independents, and that leaves Josh Shapiro up around 10 points in almost all recent polls. Easy win for Dems.
Additionally, Dems should easily win in Massachusetts, Maryland, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Illinois, Rhode Island, Maine, and Connecticut.
Safe Republican
Florida - It's almost like Democrats are trying to lose. Charlie Crist doesn't really stand for anything, and he even picked a running mate with a ton of baggage. DeSantis is more popular than ever after his efficient leadership during the hurricane. He easily takes this one, and was even well ahead before the hurricane. There haven't been any polls since.
Texas - There was a time about two years ago where Dems thought Texas was a hair away from going blue. Since then, a large contingent of Hispanics (especially men) have gone GOP, and Dems are not going to take over Texas anytime soon. Beto O'Rourke is not a good candidate, and is going to get clobbered by Abbott, who is consistently up about 8-11 points in all polls.
Additionally, Republicans should easily win in Alabama, Arkansas, Iowa, Idaho, Nebraska, New Hampshire, Ohio, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Vermont, and Wyoming.
Likely Republican
Georgia - Stacey Abrams, erroneously believed by many Democrats to have been cheated in her last run for the office, is trailing in most polls by 5-9 points. There is a recent outlier poll showing her just 1 point behind, but it isn't likely that Brian Kemp will lose.
Alaska - Their weird new election system has "ranked choice voting" where you vote for second, third, and fourth choices, and that factors in if nobody gets 50% of the vote. Incumbent Mike Dunleavy got 40% in the August 16 open primary, and while Dem Les Cook got 23%, and non-affiliated Bill Walker got 23%. I just don't see Cook or Walker bridging this gap with the ranked choice voting. I believe this will go to Dunleavy.
Oklahoma - A weird poll from "Sooner Poll" gives Democrats hope, as upstart Joy Hofmeister is shown leading by 4 in this red state. However, other polls show Kevin Stitt of the GOP up by double digits. So which is correct? Stitt is probably fairly safe here, but if you can get a really good dog price on Hofmeister, you might want to throw a few bucks on her, as she has been conducting an aggressive, grassroots campaign which has resonated with a lot of women.
Very Close
Kansas - Trump won this state by nearly 15 points, yet Kansas presently has a Democratic governor, who surprisingly won in 2018 by 5 points. It shouldn't be quite so easy this time around, with a lot of discontent toward Biden, and the midterms likely to swing sentiment the opposite way from what it was in 2018. There has been scant polling in this race for some reason, but what little exists seems to still favor Kelly over GOP challenger Derek Schmidt. This one is a tossup, but probably favors Kelly. If you can get her as a dog, she's a good bet here.
Oregon - Biden won this state by 16 points. How is this even a race? But somehow it is. Oregon hasn't had a Republican governor since 1982, but polls show that Republican Christine Drazan has a small lead right now. This is mostly thanks to Betsy Johnson (not the dress maker), a former Democrat who is pro-gun and is seen as less liberal than Democratic candidate Tina Kotek. The last polls showed that only 9% of Oregon Republicans support Johnson, but 17% of Democrats there do. There has also been some backlash against Democrats for the out-of-control crime and homelessness plaguing the Portland area. Johnson also seems more interested in hammering Kotek in attack ads than Drazan. Glenn Youngkin has even traveled to Oregon to give Drazan some tips on how to win a gubernatorial race in a blue state, and is campaigning alongside of her. Portland is enough of a mess right now to where a Republican might just slip through, especially if fed-up Democrats have a third party candidate to vote for in protest, without having to feel bad about giving their vote to a Republican. If you can find Drazan for a good price, grab her. Also note that Kotek is an open lesbian, and this might actually also push a few votes away from her. Ignore the polls showing Drazan up 6 points, as those are R-leaning poll outfits.
Arizona - The momentum is moving in the direction of Republican Kari Lake, who is facing Democrat Katie Hobbs. In recent weeks, Democrats are privately (and sometimes not so privately) expressing concern that Hobbs is too "low key", and that her refusal to debate Lake was a huge error. While some see Lake as too conservative and too Trump-affiliated, it seems that Lake has supporter enthusiasm on her side, whereas Hobbs seems to be lackadaisically strolling into defeat. If you can get Lake at a good price, fire. I think she wins. Two reliable polls now show her up by 3.
Wisconsin - This is the hardest one to predict. The two most recent non-biased polls have Democrat Evers up either 1 point or tied with Republican challenger Tom Michels. Evers led all the way until a few weeks ago, at which point polls suddenly showed Michels 2 points or so ahead. Now it's fallen back into what appears to be a virtual tie. One thing to note is that polls were showing that Biden easily had Wisconsin, but Trump only lost by 0.6 points. It seems pollsters are underestimating Republicans in Wisconsin in recent years, so for that reason Michels probably has the edge, but not a big one.
Nevada - In August, Joe Lombardo was trailing by 4 points, but now he's the favorite. Still, the non-biased polls show him up only 1-2 points, so incumbent Steve Sisolak still has a chance. Many in Nevada still aren't happy with Sisolak's COVID shutdowns, as it essentially decimated this tourism-supported state. Even after the shutdowns were over, many questioned Sisolak's support of mask mandates, and generally saw him as out-of-touch. With that said, Nevada voters have been very tough to predict in recent years. It was one of the few states where Hillary outperformed expectations in 2016, yet Biden didn't do as well in the state as predicted in 2020 (but he still easily won by 2.4 points). This one is probably going to Lombardo, but don't fire if the favorite line is too steep.
Some possible value bets on Predictit:
AZ Democratic governor +257
OR Republican governor +104
KS Democratic governor +117
WI Democratic governor +178
NV Democratic governor +178
However, none of these are great bets.
Hobbs is quickly losing ground in Arizona, hence the big dog price. Drazan is only slightly better than even money in Oregon, yet Biden won the state by 16. Wisconsin has had lots of polling error in the Democrats' favor in recent years, making the close race not quite as close. Lombardo seems to have the momentum in Nevada. Kelly being a slight dog in Oklahoma is decent value, but the redness of the state plus a backlash against Dems makes it hard to trust that one as a winner.
Thoughts?
I think GA governor belongs in the safe R category.
I also think there may be some value in GA senate race on R side. Herschel Walker may be a literal retard but he’s got a lot of things going for him in this race. For one thing I don’t think there will be quite as much split ticket voting as the polls indicate. I also can’t recall in my life time where candidate quality matters so little. The letter next to the name matters way more than the candidate. Despite the police badge gaffe Walker did better than expected in the debate, but honestly who was waiting on the debate before deciding who they were going to vote for anyways.
Also, I think voter turnout favors the republicans in the mid-terms in GA. And finally I think there’s a good chance of a runoff and if that happens then election fatigue could have a big impact as well.
That said I still think Warnock wins, but think it’s much closer to a 52-48 flip than the current 60-40; thus the value. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Walker wins.
Not so fast with the NY governor, Druff. The wretched and corrupt Hocul WAS up 17. The challenger Zeldin has closed the gap. Hocul takes bribes and peddles influence and New Yorkers seem to be getting fed up. NY also has allowed itself to become a haven for addicts and criminals alike. Recently a person who'd been arrested 43 times was pinched for mugging a dude who'd just been run over and killed by a truck and was released with no bail. Its a disgusting state and she, along with Cuomo, allowed it to happen.
It is still a long shot but Trafalgar has the crazy bitch only up by 2 now.
If NY goes down, it won't be a red wave it will be a red tsunami.
You're correct that NYC has become a shithole, much like several other big cities which had improved over the years. For example, I haven't been to San Francisco with Benjamin since he was a toddler. I would love to show him SF, hang off the cable car, and walk/drive around the city with him. However, the place has become a shithole, so I don't even bother.
This might be an election where backlash against Democrats for the degradation of big cities is more of a factor than people think. That's one problem with this election, in fact. There are a number of factors making it hard to predict. The GOP has the Roe thing and several extreme candidates working against it (to where the latter might even affect other races), and Democrats have incompetent Biden, inflation, crime, and over-wokeness working against them.
But I just don't see Hochul losing in NY. From what I've observed in recent years, NY is one of those states where Republicans briefly get excited about making inroads, only to fall way short of whatever chance they thought they had. George Pataki and his second lieutenant governor are still the last Republicans to be elected to statewide office in NY.
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