Time for some Realpolitik. In American federal politics, goal of the party out of power is to position themselves to retake the presidency in two years, hopefully by taking control of Congress and frustrating the President’s agenda. Then, when nothing gets done, it’s up to the voters to decide whose fault it is. While the GOP will likely take the House, the election was an absolute disaster for them. Why? They unseated very few incumbents. Most of their gains were due to resdistricting. The power of incumbency cannot be undervalued.
There is one exception, and it proves that the GOP can be successful: New York. Why? Simple. Violent crime is a real issue that actually affects voters there (in most of suburban America it isn’t), and none of them came out in favor of incest babies (abortion is safe in NY). Plus, in the interviews I saw, the candidates seemed competent.
What can we look forward to? Two years of Kevin McCarthy obsessing over Hunter Biden’s laptop and no meaningful legislation. This will actually be good for stabilizing the markets. In 2024? Trump v. Biden again. Trump will get 30% of the primary vote. If several candidates run against him, he’s a lock. If they all drop out and get behind DeSantis, that another story. After these mid-terms Biden is definitely running. He thinks he’s doing a good job lol.
My preference? DeSantis v. Newsome. As a Cali Dem, I know what a weasel Gavin is, but at least the country would have a clear choice.