Legalized political "betting" site PredictIt likely to go belly up in early 2023

[Dan Druff]

Ever wonder about the legality of PredictIt, where is essentially political race gambling, done via "buy/sell" models like the stock market?

They have existed untouched by the US government since 2014, thanks to a "No Action" letter from the CFTC (Commodities Futures Trading Commission). A No Action letter is essentially a promise from the CFTC that they're going to leave you alone. It means that, if you keep to certain terms, they won't interfere with your operations, while also not declaring your operation legal.

PredictIt is run by Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand. The fees are incredibly high. I've been profitable on there despite the fees because most political traders are morons, but it's the equivalent of playing in a good poker game with insanely high rake.

On August 4, 2022, the CFTC has withdrawn the No Action letter from Victoria University/PredictIt, thus killing their legalized status. It is not clear exactly why, but apparently the CFTC thinks that PredictIt has violated the terms it agreed upon in 2014.

DMO [CFTC Division of Market Oversight] has determined that Victoria University has not operated its market in compliance with the terms of the letter and as a result has withdrawn it.

However, things aren't as bad as they appear -- at least not yet. PredictIt has a grace period to continue operating until February 15, 2023. This means they can continue settling existing bets/markets, and you can continue to deposit and withdraw. However, they are not adding new bets/markets, and it is "unclear" how anything settling after 2/15/23 will be handled (uh oh!) This means, for example, you should NOT be betting on the 2024 Presidential election!

Here's their statement about it: https://www.predictit.org/platform-announcements


It is possible they will resolve the matter with the CFTC before February 2023. However, I find it more likely that the CFTC has found some sort of major violation of the spirit of their No Action agreement, and is tired of PredictIt's existence.

I wouldn't say you have to withdraw right now, and there might still be money to be made in the November 2022 elections, but definitely hit the withdraw button after those are over.

Or withdraw now if you want to be on the safe side, but be aware that withdrawal fees are high, so it's a mistake to withdraw and redeposit in November, and have to pay to withdraw a second time.

[Dan Druff]

I'm trying to figure out what might be the reason for the CFTC getting pissed off with PredictIt, to the point where they were told they have 6 months left to exist.

My guess is that they figured out PredictIt isn't really "educational", and never really was, but is rather a profit center for a foreign University.

PredictIt was given its No Action letter based upon a precedent set by a sort-of-similar system at University of Iowa in 1993. The Iowa one wasn't open to the public, and wasn't on the web, to my knowledge. (The web also just began in 1993, and barely anyone was on it!) It was utilized by people affiliated within University of Iowa, and the general concept was that by people "betting" real money markets connected to political events, University of Iowa was able to develop an accurate predictive model for elections. Each individual was allowed a maximum of $500 per market on the Iowa system.

University of Victoria Wellington wanted something similar in 2014, except the $500 number updated for inflation ($850 in 2014, which explains the current limit per market), and they wanted people outside of the University to pahticipate.

This was ultimately allowed by the CFTC, and here we are. However, an important caveat was that, like the Iowa system, the system was to be not-for-profit:

There will be no additional fees other than those necessary to cover the basic expenses of running the market, including the cost of credit card processing of deposits and withdrawals, fulfillment of the know-your-customer (“KYC”) process, and all other associated regulatory compliance and operating costs.

I have a feeling this is where the violations were perceived to have taken place. Given the absurd fees on PredictIt, it's hard to picture they aren't making bank.

Furthermore, I have seen where their system has flaws which allow for more than $850 to be wagered on one market.

If you want to read the 2014 No Action letter, it's here: https://www.cftc.gov/sites/default/f...ter/14-130.pdf

[BCR]

I often wondered how it was considered a non-profit. Either they were subsidizing half the university, or paying charity executives a million a year like you’ll often see with American non-profits. I’d guess you’re right that they got pissed and figured if someone is going to roll Americans for huge profit, it’s going to be an American. The fees were always outrageous.

We lose everything fun.

[Alex Aums Analytics]

the equivalent of playing in a good poker game with insanely high rake.

Excellent description of PredictIt. Sorry to see it going away. As professional handicapper Robert Frost said, "Nothing gold can stay."

I'll gladly keep betting there through the November 2022 elections, then clear almost everything out with the possible exception of a couple end-of-calendar-year wagers. Then, that's it.

More importantly, I'm curious what may emerge to replace PredictIt.

It looks like Polymarket isn't taking U.S. players.

I guess Kalshi is a possibility. They seem to be accepting U.S. players and have CFTC approval. Still, either of those would have to vastly expand their betting menu to even approach PredictIt.

Any other potential candidates?

[aayjay]

this sucks, was hoping it got bigger with larger limits, not be deleted.

Whats up with Kalshi, anyone like that platform? Read about a guy who uses it to hedge against hurricane season. if a hurricane hits he wins his bet, no claims adjusters or insurance involved.

[ftpjesus]

Im trying to figure out how the the hell the CFTC got involved to begin with. By any logic they have no business sticking their nose in this shit. It's not anything related to commodities or trading. It's essentially a political betting site WTF does that have anything to do with any remote regulatory authority the CFTC has? Just asking because Id argue there's a case to be made, they have zero authority over the site especially additionally when they are located in another country halfway around the world.

[Dan Druff]

BUMP

2.5 months later, still no update.

I have about $3k sitting on there, thanks in part to winning that anti-Palin bet.

I'm going to let it sit until after the November elections, as I might be interested in betting some of those markets. I will not be betting anything which won't resolve by mid-November 2022. After that, I will be hitting the withdraw button and taking out all of my money.

Since they have failed to change the CFTC's mind after 10 weeks or so, I think we can pretty much say that this ship has sailed. Because University of Victoria Wellington can't just pack up and run off, I wouldn't be too worried about your funds. However, once you're done with the November markets, you should withdraw quickly, or you might get caught in a processing backlog. And while I don't expect any real big issues with cashouts, keep in mind that we're still dealing with a foreign entity, and there's little recourse if you get fucked.

[MrTickle]

BUMP

2.5 months later, still no update.

I have about $3k sitting on there, thanks in part to winning that anti-Palin bet.

I'm going to let it sit until after the November elections, as I might be interested in betting some of those markets. I will not be betting anything which won't resolve by mid-November 2022. After that, I will be hitting the withdraw button and taking out all of my money.

Since they have failed to change the CFTC's mind after 10 weeks or so, I think we can pretty much say that this ship has sailed. Because University of Victoria Wellington can't just pack up and run off, I wouldn't be too worried about your funds. However, once you're done with the November markets, you should withdraw quickly, or you might get caught in a processing backlog. And while I don't expect any real big issues with cashouts, keep in mind that we're still dealing with a foreign entity, and there's little recourse if you get fucked.

Have you tried Polymarket?

[Dan Druff]

BUMP

2.5 months later, still no update.

I have about $3k sitting on there, thanks in part to winning that anti-Palin bet.

I'm going to let it sit until after the November elections, as I might be interested in betting some of those markets. I will not be betting anything which won't resolve by mid-November 2022. After that, I will be hitting the withdraw button and taking out all of my money.

Since they have failed to change the CFTC's mind after 10 weeks or so, I think we can pretty much say that this ship has sailed. Because University of Victoria Wellington can't just pack up and run off, I wouldn't be too worried about your funds. However, once you're done with the November markets, you should withdraw quickly, or you might get caught in a processing backlog. And while I don't expect any real big issues with cashouts, keep in mind that we're still dealing with a foreign entity, and there's little recourse if you get fucked.

Have you tried Polymarket?

No. Is it legal in US? If not, do they take US customers? How does it work?

[Dan Druff]

BUMP

Predictit gets a lifeline. A court suspended the CFTC's action, so Predictit lives... for the moment.

However, they are not allowed to add any new markets to bet on.

On January 26 the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals issued an injunction pausing the effectiveness of the February 15 deadline issued by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) to close existing PredictIt markets.

The injunction will last at least through the time the Court of Appeals rules on the merits of the primary issue of whether to grant a preliminary injunction. As requested by the plaintiffs, a preliminary injunction would effectively stay the CFTC’s directive to close all markets by February 15 and permit the markets to continue to trade pending the outcome of the litigation in the district court. The relief is therefore temporary at this time and the Court will engage in further proceedings, including a hearing on February 8, to determine whether to grant a preliminary injunction.

Based on the time period Court of Appeals typically will require to issue a decision after an oral hearing, we currently anticipate that the temporary relief will continue for a period beyond February 15 to allow time for the Court of Appeals to render its ruling, but we have no certainty as to the timing of the Court of Appeals decision. PredictIt traders may continue to hold and trade in existing contracts while the temporary relief is in place though there remains the possibility that the Court will decide to allow the CFTC to require early termination of those contracts.

The suit challenging the CFTC termination order was brought by PredictIt traders, university educators, and market servicer, Aristotle International, Inc. Victoria University of Wellington, PredictIt’s sponsor, is not a party to the legal action.

[CryptoNinja]

What’s the latest on this? I want to bet heavy against Trump after the convention.

[Dan Druff]

Notice to Traders

Victoria University of Wellington (“VUW”) has responded to a March 2, 2023 preliminary decision from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) to withdraw the No Action Letter under which PredictIt operates. The March 2 letter provided an opportunity for VUW, PredictIt’s operator to contest the Commission’s arguments.

VUW issued the following statement in connection with their response to the CFTC:

"While Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington respects the CFTC’s authority as a regulator, it strongly disagrees with the version of events put forward by the Commission in its recent letter proposing to withdraw the “No Action” letter. The University has provided a detailed and robust response to the Commission in relation to all of the points raised. In particular, the University believes it has been transparent and has engaged in good faith regarding the operation of PredictIt and how this has changed over time, including the role of Aristotle International, Inc. The University has made no money from PredictIt, with the only payment being $US2,000 per month to the University’s subsidiary Wellington UniVentures, to offset costs. The University’s goal in relation to the PredictIt platform has been purely to support its development as a research and educational tool for the international research community of which we are a part."

The CFTC’s March 2 letter withdrew an earlier August 4, 2022 withdrawal decision that has been temporarily enjoined. PredictIt traders, university educators, and market servicer, Aristotle International Inc. are challenging the CFTC’s efforts to close PredictIt in a case that is currently pending before that court. VUW is not a party to that legal action.

PredictIt traders may continue to hold and trade existing contracts pending further consideration by the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals and the CFTC. There remains the possibility that a judicial or administrative decision may require early termination of those contracts. We have no certainty as to the timing of any such decision.

After the CFTC was temporarily enjoined from enforcing its stated actions to take place in February 2023, the CFTC withdrew its August 2022 letter and replaced it with a new one in March 2023.

Here's the CFTC statement/letter in March 2023: https://az620379.vo.msecnd.net/stati...31236f3313.pdf

Basically I was correct in my assessment. The CFTC realized that University of Victoria Wellington had turned this supposed "small scale educational" venture into a for-profit betting site. The CFTC alleges that PredictIt was handed off to a for-profit company called Aristotle to operate, and in turn, Aristotle was funneling money over to a subsidiary of the University called "Victoria Link Limited". Sneaky!

So indeed, these absurd fees were generating a profit for both U of Victoria and this operations company Aristotle. Naughty naughty!



Here's PredictIt's response: https://az620379.vo.msecnd.net/stati...48261e2e6a.pdf

It's long, and I admit I only skimmed it, but it looks like a lot of bullshit. Basically they're claiming Aristotle only gave them $2k/month, and that these reflect the University's real costs to run whatever portion is still on their end.

Whatever the case, there's no chance that this platform costs as much to run as is being removed via fees. Someone -- or something -- is making bank off this. That's the CFTC's main issue, and secondarily they think the whole thing grew too big and is not about education/research anymore, which is correct.

The whole thing is still on appeal, but at the moment, there are no new contracts being offered, and PredictIt is conceded that at "any time" they may be forced to prematurely shut everything down. Presumably everyone will get paid, but for the most part, the site isn't really useful at this point.

[Dan Druff]

Also fuck the incompetent GOP in 2022 for underperforming big time in that election, and basically eating the entire $3k I had on there.

First and only time I got beat hard on there. Still way ahead lifetime, but what a shitty way to end.

[Sanlmar]

Also fuck the incompetent GOP in 2022 for underperforming big time in that election, and basically eating the entire $3k I had on there.

First and only time I got beat hard on there. Still way ahead lifetime, but what a shitty way to end.

Following Roe v Wade that homo Nate Silver was far less accurate than PredictIt regarding Democrats chances. You ignored its impact, as well. I called correctly it a year in advance on just that anticipated court decision.

Famously, Silver said long ago that polling simply drove traffic to his blog. It was a PR move. He’s been a PR fraud ever since.

The timing of all this has a peculiar irony as our democracy stumble to the finish line.

Regardless, we sure wouldn’t want money to interfere with elections in the United States. CFTC needs to myob and let Americans express their freedom.

The timing of all this election wagering concern is ironic given how our democracy is stumbling to the finish line. Concern and “protection” is unsurprisingly focused on the least concerning issue.

The CFTC is however protecting you from spewing on DeSantis.

[Mission146]

Notice to Traders

Victoria University of Wellington (“VUW”) has responded to a March 2, 2023 preliminary decision from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) to withdraw the No Action Letter under which PredictIt operates. The March 2 letter provided an opportunity for VUW, PredictIt’s operator to contest the Commission’s arguments.

VUW issued the following statement in connection with their response to the CFTC:

"While Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington respects the CFTC’s authority as a regulator, it strongly disagrees with the version of events put forward by the Commission in its recent letter proposing to withdraw the “No Action” letter. The University has provided a detailed and robust response to the Commission in relation to all of the points raised. In particular, the University believes it has been transparent and has engaged in good faith regarding the operation of PredictIt and how this has changed over time, including the role of Aristotle International, Inc. The University has made no money from PredictIt, with the only payment being $US2,000 per month to the University’s subsidiary Wellington UniVentures, to offset costs. The University’s goal in relation to the PredictIt platform has been purely to support its development as a research and educational tool for the international research community of which we are a part."

The CFTC’s March 2 letter withdrew an earlier August 4, 2022 withdrawal decision that has been temporarily enjoined. PredictIt traders, university educators, and market servicer, Aristotle International Inc. are challenging the CFTC’s efforts to close PredictIt in a case that is currently pending before that court. VUW is not a party to that legal action.

PredictIt traders may continue to hold and trade existing contracts pending further consideration by the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals and the CFTC. There remains the possibility that a judicial or administrative decision may require early termination of those contracts. We have no certainty as to the timing of any such decision.

After the CFTC was temporarily enjoined from enforcing its stated actions to take place in February 2023, the CFTC withdrew its August 2022 letter and replaced it with a new one in March 2023.

Here's the CFTC statement/letter in March 2023: https://az620379.vo.msecnd.net/stati...31236f3313.pdf

Basically I was correct in my assessment. The CFTC realized that University of Victoria Wellington had turned this supposed "small scale educational" venture into a for-profit betting site. The CFTC alleges that PredictIt was handed off to a for-profit company called Aristotle to operate, and in turn, Aristotle was funneling money over to a subsidiary of the University called "Victoria Link Limited". Sneaky!

So indeed, these absurd fees were generating a profit for both U of Victoria and this operations company Aristotle. Naughty naughty!



Here's PredictIt's response: https://az620379.vo.msecnd.net/stati...48261e2e6a.pdf

It's long, and I admit I only skimmed it, but it looks like a lot of bullshit. Basically they're claiming Aristotle only gave them $2k/month, and that these reflect the University's real costs to run whatever portion is still on their end.

Whatever the case, there's no chance that this platform costs as much to run as is being removed via fees. Someone -- or something -- is making bank off this. That's the CFTC's main issue, and secondarily they think the whole thing grew too big and is not about education/research anymore, which is correct.

The whole thing is still on appeal, but at the moment, there are no new contracts being offered, and PredictIt is conceded that at "any time" they may be forced to prematurely shut everything down. Presumably everyone will get paid, but for the most part, the site isn't really useful at this point.

I'd speculate that it might be awhile before everyone gets paid, if that's how it goes down.

For one thing, since this isn't fully run by the University, there's naturally going to be some discussion of who's on hook for what. The next question is whether or not they'll pay at all. The next question is whether or not they will freeze the binary markets and wait for them to close or if they will declare all positions to simply be finalized and pay as if resolved.

Even then, there's sure to be some bickering about who's on the hook for what. You could also end up with a Full Tilt situation wherein, 'Player,' funds aren't actually segregated (until fees have been taken out) and Aristotle, University, whatever...might simply stall because they don't have the funds to pay right away.

[Mission146]

Also fuck the incompetent GOP in 2022 for underperforming big time in that election, and basically eating the entire $3k I had on there.

First and only time I got beat hard on there. Still way ahead lifetime, but what a shitty way to end.

Well, you should probably say, "Fuck SCOTUS," because it's simple cause and effect. Very predictable, you might say.

[CryptoNinja]

Also fuck the incompetent GOP in 2022 for underperforming big time in that election, and basically eating the entire $3k I had on there.

First and only time I got beat hard on there. Still way ahead lifetime, but what a shitty way to end.

I don’t think you’re a bad guy, Todd and I don’t think you are entirely detached from reality like a lot of Trump supporters are, but I think you still believe some of the lies the GOP tells. By far, the most prevalent lie Republicans believe is this “half the country” bullshit. 23% of adult Americans voted for Trump in 2020. Are you telling me that only half of Trumpers are voting? I find that hard to believe. I’m also quite sure that Trump does motivate people that are usually non-voters to show up but in order to vote against him. It’s not that so many Americans love Joe Biden, it’s that we hate Trump. The Republican base vastly underestimates this and actually believes they are the majority. This should lead to being able to place very +EV bets against them. Additionally, the GOP have left themselves no outs, here. Trump will win the nom, regardless of the severe legal trouble he finds himself in, and has no real shot at winning. Place sharp bets, don’t bet with your heart and you should be able to recoup those losses.

ETA: Are there other options besides Predictit for political betting? Can you bet on politics in Vegas? I want to bet 5 figs.

[Mission146]

Also fuck the incompetent GOP in 2022 for underperforming big time in that election, and basically eating the entire $3k I had on there.

First and only time I got beat hard on there. Still way ahead lifetime, but what a shitty way to end.

I don’t think you’re a bad guy, Todd and I don’t think you are entirely detached from reality like a lot of Trump supporters are, but I think you still believe some of the lies the GOP tells. By far, the most prevalent lie Republicans believe is this “half the country” bullshit. 23% of adult Americans voted for Trump in 2020. Are you telling me that only half of Trumpers are voting? I find that hard to believe. I’m also quite sure that Trump does motivate people that are usually non-voters to show up but in order to vote against him. It’s not that so many Americans love Joe Biden, it’s that we hate Trump. The Republican base vastly underestimates this and actually believes they are the majority. This should lead to being able to place very +EV bets against them. Additionally, the GOP have left themselves no outs, here. Trump will win the nom, regardless of the severe legal trouble he finds himself in, and has no real shot at winning. Place sharp bets, don’t bet with your heart and you should be able to recoup those losses.

ETA: Are there other options besides Predictit for political betting? Can you bet on politics in Vegas? I want to bet 5 figs.

Political betting, or perhaps it's specifically the outcome of an election, is illegal in the United States. There are many offshore websites that book U.S. Politics, but that's going to be vig-based betting and the juice is usually big enough that most advantages will be perceived with very few actual edges available. Even if they would normally accept gamblers from the U.S., they mostly won't allow you on there for politics betting. You'd probably have to get someone to run an account and handle your bets for you, if there's anyone offshore you can trust and know fairly well.

As Dan Druff pointed out, the big advantage of PredictIt betting is that you're mostly going up against idiots, so just don't be an idiot and you'll make money.

PredictIt will often have binaries no online casino would ever give you both sides of. You could have bet on Kanye to be the second-leading or third-leading vote getter, in 2020, on PredictIt...which...yeah, okay. Better still, you could bet on Kanye NOT to be the third-highest vote getter.

Generally speaking, one good way to know where the free money is on PredictIt (since it's always either a binary or market betting) is to look at where casinos aren't even giving you the OPTION of betting the more likely of the two things.

For example, I wrote an article where you could bet to return $1.00 for every $0.66/bet (at one point) that Trump would NOT be impeached AND removed from office. With a Republican Senate and needing 2/3rd of the Senate to do it? It was never happening.

Now, on something like 5Dimes (for one example), at the same point in time, they wouldn't even give you the option to bet the, 'No.' If you wanted to bet with your heart and give them free money taking the, 'YES,' then you were allowed, but they wouldn't even take a bet on the, 'No.'

That's usually a pretty good indicator when there's some high probability event that the online casinos think is SO likely they won't even let you LAY 10,000 on it.

Of course, PredictIt gets you with the outrageous fees when it comes time to cash out.

They basically tag you on every win and then get you going out. When something resolves in your favor (or you sell your binary at a higher price), then PredictIt takes 10% of the profit, in either case. Cashing out costs you a flat 5% of your entire balance, assuming that hasn't changed since I last wrote about it.

I don't know what Dan Druff's angle was...but if you were fairly patient and didn't mind having money sit on there, then you could sometimes get phenomenal prices (even after getting taxed 10% of profits) on absolute iron-clad guarantees and just leave the money sit there. You definitely couldn't withdraw-deposit-withdraw-deposit and cycle it like that, or you'd effectively eat the 5% withdrawal rate more often than you needed to.

For example, on December 23rd, 2019, you could bet $0.92 on YES for Trump to complete 2019 as the POTUS. Negligible free money, but still free money.

[Sanlmar]

I remember binary betting elections on Nadex.

Haven’t thought about Nadex in forever. Was fun

[CryptoNinja]

I think there was a theory that Trump might step aside early, maybe by only a couple of days, so Pence could then pardon him.

I don’t think you’re a bad guy, Todd and I don’t think you are entirely detached from reality like a lot of Trump supporters are, but I think you still believe some of the lies the GOP tells. By far, the most prevalent lie Republicans believe is this “half the country” bullshit. 23% of adult Americans voted for Trump in 2020. Are you telling me that only half of Trumpers are voting? I find that hard to believe. I’m also quite sure that Trump does motivate people that are usually non-voters to show up but in order to vote against him. It’s not that so many Americans love Joe Biden, it’s that we hate Trump. The Republican base vastly underestimates this and actually believes they are the majority. This should lead to being able to place very +EV bets against them. Additionally, the GOP have left themselves no outs, here. Trump will win the nom, regardless of the severe legal trouble he finds himself in, and has no real shot at winning. Place sharp bets, don’t bet with your heart and you should be able to recoup those losses.

ETA: Are there other options besides Predictit for political betting? Can you bet on politics in Vegas? I want to bet 5 figs.

Political betting, or perhaps it's specifically the outcome of an election, is illegal in the United States. There are many offshore websites that book U.S. Politics, but that's going to be vig-based betting and the juice is usually big enough that most advantages will be perceived with very few actual edges available. Even if they would normally accept gamblers from the U.S., they mostly won't allow you on there for politics betting. You'd probably have to get someone to run an account and handle your bets for you, if there's anyone offshore you can trust and know fairly well.

As Dan Druff pointed out, the big advantage of PredictIt betting is that you're mostly going up against idiots, so just don't be an idiot and you'll make money.

PredictIt will often have binaries no online casino would ever give you both sides of. You could have bet on Kanye to be the second-leading or third-leading vote getter, in 2020, on PredictIt...which...yeah, okay. Better still, you could bet on Kanye NOT to be the third-highest vote getter.

Generally speaking, one good way to know where the free money is on PredictIt (since it's always either a binary or market betting) is to look at where casinos aren't even giving you the OPTION of betting the more likely of the two things.

For example, I wrote an article where you could bet to return $1.00 for every $0.66/bet (at one point) that Trump would NOT be impeached AND removed from office. With a Republican Senate and needing 2/3rd of the Senate to do it? It was never happening.

Now, on something like 5Dimes (for one example), at the same point in time, they wouldn't even give you the option to bet the, 'No.' If you wanted to bet with your heart and give them free money taking the, 'YES,' then you were allowed, but they wouldn't even take a bet on the, 'No.'

That's usually a pretty good indicator when there's some high probability event that the online casinos think is SO likely they won't even let you LAY 10,000 on it.

Of course, PredictIt gets you with the outrageous fees when it comes time to cash out.

They basically tag you on every win and then get you going out. When something resolves in your favor (or you sell your binary at a higher price), then PredictIt takes 10% of the profit, in either case. Cashing out costs you a flat 5% of your entire balance, assuming that hasn't changed since I last wrote about it.

I don't know what Dan Druff's angle was...but if you were fairly patient and didn't mind having money sit on there, then you could sometimes get phenomenal prices (even after getting taxed 10% of profits) on absolute iron-clad guarantees and just leave the money sit there. You definitely couldn't withdraw-deposit-withdraw-deposit and cycle it like that, or you'd effectively eat the 5% withdrawal rate more often than you needed to.

For example, on December 23rd, 2019, you could bet $0.92 on YES for Trump to complete 2019 as the POTUS. Negligible free money, but still free money.