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Thread: *** OFFICIAL MLB 2022 THREAD ****

  1. #281
    Cubic Zirconia
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    I don't think the cream story is as unlikely as the vast majority seem to think.

    If he was going to juice, why use something the East Germans came up with in the 60s that is supposedly detectable in incredibly minute quantities and that no self respecting steroid user seems to use?

  2. #282
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by podcast View Post
    I don't think the cream story is as unlikely as the vast majority seem to think.

    If he was going to juice, why use something the East Germans came up with in the 60s that is supposedly detectable in incredibly minute quantities and that no self respecting steroid user seems to use?
    Occam's Razor is why.

    What else is he going to say? That he was doing roids to cheat, and that his monster contract may have been based upon a mirage?

    Dee Gordon used the same thing, but the difference was that he admitted it. Gordon had a lot less to lose by admitting it, as he wasn't a superstar, and teams weren't built around him.

  3. #283
    Diamond BCR's Avatar
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    Do any books offer current live odds to win division?

    I don’t understand ESPN’s playoff calculator at all.

    Right now Cleveland has 2.5 game lead over both Minnesota and Chicago.

    This is their playoff chances.
    15.3% Guardians

    62.9% Twins

    52.7% ChiSox

    So I assumed it was based on remaining schedule, but both those teams have 7 games left against Yankees and Astros and Padres.

    We play 2 in San Diego, those two teams many times, but I’d guess we are .500 or a little better against both, and a bunch of teams that are basically us. Seattle, Baltimore, etc.

    Cle ends season with 6 straight against KC at home. Those two end the year playing each other.

    We are starting 4 game series against Detroit with 2.5 game lead.. Twins have easy one also. ChiSox have series against Astros.

    I was just curious if there were any books that have the Guardians even +240 to win the division given ESPN has them less than 1 in 5. Espn is often laughable, so if there is a book offering it, it might be Cle +120 and not worth a bet.

    They play each other a lot, but I like the way we are playing and our starting pitching is coming back to what was expected. Our set up man is pitching well and our closer is elite. If I had to pick one team, I’d pick us.

    Twins have this stretch starting in a week.




    HOU 8:10 PM Mahle Verlander Tickets as low as $15
    Wed, 8/24 @

    HOU 8:10 PM Bundy Valdez Tickets as low as $12
    Thu, 8/25 @

    HOU 8:10 PM
    Fri, 8/26 vs

    SF 8:10 PM
    Sat, 8/27 vs

    SF 7:15 PM FOX
    Sun, 8/28 vs

    SF 2:10 PM
    Mon, 8/29 vs

    BOS 7:40 PM
    Tue, 8/30 vs

    BOS 7:40 PM
    Wed, 8/31 vs

    BOS 7:40 PM
    Fri, 9/2 @

    CHW 8:10 PM
    Sat, 9/3 @

    CHW 7:10 PM
    Sun, 9/4 @

    CHW 2:10 PM
    Mon, 9/5 @

    NYY 1:05 PM
    Tue, 9/6 @

    NYY 7:05 PM
    Wed, 9/7 @

    NYY 7:05 PM
    Thu, 9/8 @

    NYY 7:05 PM

    Chisox have easier schedule imo, but still seven against Astros and SD starting with Astros tonight and wondered if you could bet it as my book doesn’t have it.


    I just think Cle has the schedule advantage and a 2.5 lead over both. I understand there are wildcard implications where those teams fare better, neither Boston or Yankees are playing that well, but we are a whole lot more than 15% to win the division straight out. I was baffled at their algorithm.

  4. #284
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    I’ve been on Cleveland division for a while. It’s caught up and is fairly priced now.

    I have no idea what ESPN is going on about. I couldn’t be bothered to look either. Just keep taking Cleveland plus money most days. You already are I see.

    I have Braves +600 but that’s a personal issue


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      BCR: Thx. That sucks. Wish ESPN had a book. Was looking for BTC wallets after seeing 15%
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 08-15-2022 at 07:02 AM.

  5. #285
    Cubic Zirconia
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by podcast View Post
    I don't think the cream story is as unlikely as the vast majority seem to think.

    If he was going to juice, why use something the East Germans came up with in the 60s that is supposedly detectable in incredibly minute quantities and that no self respecting steroid user seems to use?
    Occam's Razor is why.

    What else is he going to say? That he was doing roids to cheat, and that his monster contract may have been based upon a mirage?

    Dee Gordon used the same thing, but the difference was that he admitted it. Gordon had a lot less to lose by admitting it, as he wasn't a superstar, and teams weren't built around him.
    How does Occam's Razor disprove what I said?

    Dee Gordon did test as well, and he denied knowingly taking it.
    https://www.theatlantic.com/entertai...gordon/480582/

    Galvis was busted for it, denied knowingly taking it and claimed it was detected at 80 parts in a trillion (which seems to imply it was unlikely to have been taken at a therapeutic dose).
    https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...ended-50-games

    Johaug [female skier] Tests Positive for Anabolic Steroid After Using Sunburn Cream Recommended by Team Doctor
    https://fasterskier.com/2016/10/joha...y-team-doctor/
    ^The Court of Arbitration for Sport case for this says that no parties in the case dispute the facts.

    Steroid expert Greg Doucette echoes what I said.

  6. #286
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    Quote Originally Posted by BCR View Post
    Do any books offer current live odds to win division?

    I don’t understand ESPN’s playoff calculator at all.

    Right now Cleveland has 2.5 game lead over both Minnesota and Chicago.

    This is their playoff chances.
    15.3% Guardians

    62.9% Twins

    52.7% ChiSox

    So I assumed it was based on remaining schedule, but both those teams have 7 games left against Yankees and Astros and Padres.

    We play 2 in San Diego, those two teams many times, but I’d guess we are .500 or a little better against both, and a bunch of teams that are basically us. Seattle, Baltimore, etc.

    Cle ends season with 6 straight against KC at home. Those two end the year playing each other.

    We are starting 4 game series against Detroit with 2.5 game lead.. Twins have easy one also. ChiSox have series against Astros.

    I was just curious if there were any books that have the Guardians even +240 to win the division given ESPN has them less than 1 in 5. Espn is often laughable, so if there is a book offering it, it might be Cle +120 and not worth a bet.

    They play each other a lot, but I like the way we are playing and our starting pitching is coming back to what was expected. Our set up man is pitching well and our closer is elite. If I had to pick one team, I’d pick us.

    Twins have this stretch starting in a week.




    HOU 8:10 PM Mahle Verlander Tickets as low as $15
    Wed, 8/24 @

    HOU 8:10 PM Bundy Valdez Tickets as low as $12
    Thu, 8/25 @

    HOU 8:10 PM
    Fri, 8/26 vs

    SF 8:10 PM
    Sat, 8/27 vs

    SF 7:15 PM FOX
    Sun, 8/28 vs

    SF 2:10 PM
    Mon, 8/29 vs

    BOS 7:40 PM
    Tue, 8/30 vs

    BOS 7:40 PM
    Wed, 8/31 vs

    BOS 7:40 PM
    Fri, 9/2 @

    CHW 8:10 PM
    Sat, 9/3 @

    CHW 7:10 PM
    Sun, 9/4 @

    CHW 2:10 PM
    Mon, 9/5 @

    NYY 1:05 PM
    Tue, 9/6 @

    NYY 7:05 PM
    Wed, 9/7 @

    NYY 7:05 PM
    Thu, 9/8 @

    NYY 7:05 PM

    Chisox have easier schedule imo, but still seven against Astros and SD starting with Astros tonight and wondered if you could bet it as my book doesn’t have it.


    I just think Cle has the schedule advantage and a 2.5 lead over both. I understand there are wildcard implications where those teams fare better, neither Boston or Yankees are playing that well, but we are a whole lot more than 15% to win the division straight out. I was baffled at their algorithm.
    The ESPN odds haven't been updated in awhile. Currently the Angels are 62.8% with a 51-64 record. I like you guys Indians action and I bet some +140 to win the division last week. Twins starting pitching not good enough imo and Chi Sox and Larussa are asleep at the wheel. These playoffs will be really good. Anxious to see the Mets and Yankees in the playoffs. Me thinks the Mets are better set up for a deep run.

     
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      BCR: Didn’t even notice that. Glanced at a few of the top teams, but yeah it’s way off.

  7. #287
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Dodgers will need to do without Walker Buehler in 2022. He's having season ending surgery on August 23.

    https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...gery-next-week


    This doesn't hurt their chances much, as he was already to be out until mid-September, and possibly could have been a negative addition to the team, due to both rust and soreness. So for 2022, this might actually be a positive.

    However, he already had Tommy John surgery before his Major League career even got going, and it's possible this is a last ditch attempt to save his career, and he might already be done. That would be quite disappointing. He was seen as the ace of the 2020s, and thought to still be a viable pitcher in the early 2030s. Now it might be prematurely over.

    Sad!

  8. #288
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Dodger pitcher Walker Buehler has been "peacefully taken off life support" after a suitable donor recipient was found, a spokesperson has confirmed.

  9. #289
    Diamond BCR's Avatar
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    Forget under 7, under 5 is +265, under 5.5 +170 in Verlander- Cease matchup tmrw.

  10. #290
    All Sorts of Sports gut's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gut View Post
    Buehler will be shut down from throwing for 6-8 weeks, Roberts told Jack Harris and other reporters, as the MRI revealed a flexor strain. While Buehler will have to rebuild his arm strength almost from scratch afterwards, Roberts does believe the righty will be able to pitch again in 2022.
    LOLLLLLLZ

    Dodgers analytics looking short-term only. Prolonging Buehlers next TJ in the hopes his elbow magically heals itself.

    See ya in 2024 Walker.

    .....

     
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      Sheesfaced:

  11. #291
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    It could be worse. The Dodgers could have just handed Walker a big contract.

    He's not a free agent until 2025, so the Dodgers have some time to see how (and if) he recovers from this.

    Suddenly Julio Urias -- the most mishandled pitcher in the organization -- is the staff ace. Think of what he could have done for them if they just let him get his feet firmly planted as a starter years ago.

    Anyway, the organization is going to have to ride or die with Urias/Gonsolin/Anderson, plus whatever they get out of Kershaw, in the postseason. And a shaky bullpen.

    Let's just say I hope they keep hitting.

  12. #292
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Sanlmar will like this.

    Throughout my entire lifetime, the Dodgers have had a problem winning the World Series in a 162-game season.

    The 162-game season started in 1962. The Dodgers won the World Series in 2 of those first 4 seasons, taking it down in 1963 and 1965.

    From 1966 to 2021, there were 5 shortened seasons and 51 normal seasons. The Dodgers won just one World Series in those 51 normal seasons just ONCE -- in 1988. And they had to win as the underdog against the powerful Mets and A's to do it.

    However, somehow they've done much better in the 5 shortened seasons:

    1972: Missed playoffs
    1981: Won World Series
    1994: No postseason, first place at time of strike
    1995: Finished first, lost NLDS
    2020: Won World Series

    Since 1966, they are 2-for-4 in winning the World Series in shortened seasons (1994 doesn't count, obviously), and 1-for-51 otherwise. Ouch!

    To be fair, they likely would have won in 2017 if Houston hadn't cheated. This year might be their best chance to win in their modern history, though three very good teams (Mets, Yankees, Astros) could derail tihs.

  13. #293
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    And down south, Fernando Tatis Jr has had his bobblehead cancelled.

    Word on DA STREET is that the Padres are looking to cancel something else -- his contract!

    Whether they'll be successful is a different story.

    https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...ing-suspension


    Those showing up for a bobblehead will get a Juan Soto T-shirt instead.

    The Padres haven't been hitting at all since Soto showed up. Soto himself has been okay (just 1 HR though), but the rest of the lineup has just been punchless. They could miss the playoffs if the Brewers, Phillies, and Braves play well enough down the stretch.

  14. #294
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Okay... one more post.

    Tony LaRussa had a weird moment (yes, another one) when it appeared a heckling fan made him insert a pinch runner in the game.

    https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...tell-heard-him

    https://twitter.com/WeinoChi/status/1559378901159350277



    LaRussa is almost 78 years old, and should not be managing. Like Joe Biden, he seems to be going senile. This isn't the same LaRussa who managed those great A's teams of the late 1980s.

  15. #295
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    So why is Kimbrel the Dodgers closer again? I looked at his stats and this year isn't a blip, he has sucked for like 4 years now. What is the point of trotting this guy out to lose games? Does Dodgers management think he is going to turn a corner and get good again? What is the track record on older pitchers who were very good in their prime but have sucked for 4 years straight becoming good again? Cant be very high I imagine.

     
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      Sanlmar: Asking on behalf of thousands

  16. #296
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kalam View Post
    So why is Kimbrel the Dodgers closer again? I looked at his stats and this year isn't a blip, he has sucked for like 4 years now. What is the point of trotting this guy out to lose games? Does Dodgers management think he is going to turn a corner and get good again? What is the track record on older pitchers who were very good in their prime but have sucked for 4 years straight becoming good again? Cant be very high I imagine.
    Yeah he's just getting worse and worse.

    Very annoying to see the Braves acquire Rasiel Iglesias as a second closer, and the Dodgers didn't do anything. Big hole in their World Series strategy.

  17. #297
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kalam View Post
    So why is Kimbrel the Dodgers closer again? I looked at his stats and this year isn't a blip, he has sucked for like 4 years now. What is the point of trotting this guy out to lose games? Does Dodgers management think he is going to turn a corner and get good again? What is the track record on older pitchers who were very good in their prime but have sucked for 4 years straight becoming good again? Cant be very high I imagine.
    I’m glad you asked. Your question is echoed by most of America.

    First, shout out to Chris Taylor’s game saving catch in center field in the bottom of the 9th. Heroic. Taylor made Kimbrel possible in the 10th.

    Back to your questions. Its tradition mostly.

    The Dodgers for the last dozen years or so have been seeking to prove that bullpens in the playoffs aren’t that important. Evidence so far indicates the Dodgers are wrong but the fans seem to like it. Coincident with this, the Dodgers ownership harbors a concern that if they ever win a World Series fan enthusiasm will decline. The Dodgers have seen this occur in Boston and Chicago and are doing their best to sully their chances in the playoffs.

    Enter Kimbrel. He makes Jansen look like Mariano Rivera. Kimbrel can be hidden from the Chicano gang members during the regular season for the most part. Occasionally, the Dodgers play a quasi-playoff grade team like the Brewers and the bullpen is exposed.

    Jansen was lambasted by sports writers but it didn’t seem to affect attendance or fan interest. In fact, their popularity grew. Kimbrel just turns up the fail a couple of clicks.

    Its like the racing greyhound and the mechanical rabbit. If the greyhound ever catches the fake rabbit he won’t run again and has to be put down. This is the Dodger model. Don’t catch the rabbit

    I can’t stand Joe Davis. I always watch the opponent’s broadcast even when I’m on the Dodgers. They pointed out that Kimbrel was warming in the pen. Davis is usually preoccupied with fellating the Dodgers and never points out these things. It was +195 - +200. I took both.

    Win or lose the Kimbrel entertainment value with money riding just can’t be beat anywhere.

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    Don’t ever change Blue.
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 08-16-2022 at 09:51 PM.

  18. #298
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Agree the playoff format is a joke. At least the Dodgers get a bye out of this ridiculousness in the first round.

    LOL 12 of 30 teams in baseball making it to the postseason, in a 162-game season full of variance. Brutal.

    Here are the teams in contention for the postseason:

    Class 1: Excellent teams
    Dodgers
    Yankees
    Astros
    Mets (feels dirty to write this)

    Class 2: Good teams
    Braves
    Padres
    Mariners
    Phillies

    Class 3: Marginal teams
    Blue Jays
    Rays
    Orioles
    Indians
    Twins
    White Sox
    Cardinals
    Brewers

    This means 16 of 30 teams are in realistic contention right now, though this number is a bit inflated due to the mediocrity in both Central divisions, which leaves .500ish teams like the White Sox with a decent shot to win the division.

    If the playoffs were based upon today's standings:

    Bye in first round: Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Astros
    Other 2 division winners: Cardinals, Indians
    Wildcards: Mariners, Blue Jays, Rays or Orioles (tied right now), Braves, Phillies, Padres

    So of these 12 teams, the worst is the Rays or Orioles, currently both at .527, which projects to 85 wins.

    The other 5 wildcards would range between 88 and 95 wins.

    An 88-win team winning the World Series isn't terrible, though it is if there are four teams with well over 100 wins, which there very well might be. An 85-win team winning the World Series is a travesty.
    Not sure I’d classify the Braves as a good team instead of excellent. Defending champs, best record in baseball since June 1st, and starting to get healthy at the right time. Plus somehow every young kid they call up seems to excel and immediately be given a team friendly long-term extension.

  19. #299
    Cubic Zirconia
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kalam View Post
    So why is Kimbrel the Dodgers closer again? I looked at his stats and this year isn't a blip, he has sucked for like 4 years now. What is the point of trotting this guy out to lose games? Does Dodgers management think he is going to turn a corner and get good again? What is the track record on older pitchers who were very good in their prime but have sucked for 4 years straight becoming good again? Cant be very high I imagine.
    He was great last year, what are you talking about?

    This year he's had some bad luck, the drop in K% isn't pretty though.

  20. #300
    Diamond BCR's Avatar
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    Next time I lose a game I’ll have to remind myself of tonight. Have dogshit Tribe -1.5. Down 4-2 with two out and no one on in bottom of 8th Third guy strikes out but reached on passed ball. Straw hits one through pitchers legs. Kwan then hits what looks like foul ball that bounces in and out for ground rule double. Rosario gets infield hit. Jose hits a pool cue that looks like out and drops and gets by left fielder clearing the bases. Next three guys get hits. Ends up 8-4 by end of the inning. Clase is already warming up as it looked like a save situation, so I get him for ninth even up 4. The luckiest strangest series of hits I can ever recall that I’m on the good side of. One of the weirdest innings I can ever recall.

     
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      Dan Druff: gotta enjoy the lucky ones while you can

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