
Originally Posted by
khalwat
What about Risk Compensation Behavior (the bike helmet argument)?
Sorry, but this is where you (and the article) lost me.
While the "bicycle helmet argument" may fail for other preventative measures, it's very clear that indeed this has happened with COVID and mask wearing.
Much of this is the media's fault. Due to the politicization of masks, the left-leaning (aka mainstream) media has been terrified to cast masks as anything but the end-all, be-all of safety and responsible behavior.
In 2020 (before vaccinations), I had the following conversation TONS of times with "COVID responsible" people my age, some of whom aren't even political:
Them: So I was at this bar the other night, and...
Me: Wait, you were at a bar? I thought you're really worried about COVID.
Them: Oh, I am. But I wore a mask, everyone was really good about masking, and I was washing my hands like crazy.
Me: Um, no, that's not how it works. Being in a small enclosed space like that with a bunch of people like that is very dangerous for COVID, mask or no mask.
Them: Not true. I'm following all the safety guidelines provided by the experts, and so was everyone else. Anyway, so check out what happened that night...
Anecdotal? Sure. But I had some form of this conversation a LOT, and I'm sure you also talked to tons of people who felt they were safe because they were in a mask. In fact, many were convinced that masking versus non masking was the difference between those who caught COVID and those who didn't.
Want something not anecdotal? Norway. They didn't wear masks at all until August 2020. A survey in July 2020 found that only 2% of the population wore masks regularly. However, they had one of the best COVID outcomes, even in highly populated areas like Oslo. When their COVID problem got a bit worse, they started to wear masks more, but the masking did not appear to make a difference in transmission rates. One thing observed during their non-masking period was that people were more cautious about going into public indoor spaces, and were better about giving each other space.
While I'm willing to concede that masks have a little utility in preventing COVID transmission, they unfortuantely give people the illusion of safety, and discourage the best prevention method of all -- staying home when not necessary to go to indoor spaces.

Originally Posted by
khalwat
What about mask mandates?
Modeling suggests (38, 39) that population-level compliance with public mask wearing of 70% combined with contact tracing would be critical to halt epidemic growth. Population-level uptake of an intervention to benefit the whole population is similar to vaccinations. A common policy response to this conundrum is to ensure compliance by using laws and regulations, such as widespread state laws in the United States which require that students have vaccinations to attend school. Research shows that the strength of the mandate to vaccinate greatly influences compliance rates for vaccines and that policies that set a higher bar for vaccine exemptions result in higher vaccination rates (136). The same approach is now being used in many jurisdictions to increase mask wearing compliance, by mandating mask use in a variety of settings (such as public transportation or grocery stores or even at all times outside the home). Population analysis suggests that these laws are effective at increasing compliance and slowing the spread of COVID-19 (29, 31, 32).
This "modeling" is nonsense, and there has never been a connection drawn between mask mandates and COVID outcomes.
In fact, there is some belief that mask mandates make matters worse, because it pushes many people to socialize in more dangerous private indoor spaces where they feel they can go maskless without consequence.
Furthermore, again we have the bicycle helmet problem, as described above. If you feel an indoor space is "safe" because of a mask mandate, you're more willing to enter.
Finally -- and this can't be understated -- it disincentivizes vaccination. The message for vaccination should be, "Do this, and your life will be back to normal", as opposed to, "Do this, and you're still going to be under all kinds of restrictions, because this doesn't really work that well."
The problem is that there's a lot of politically-motivated COVID "research" on both sides, both of which seem to make great (but opposite) cases for their points. However, upon careful scrutiny, none of this biased research holds up.
We cannot find one concrete example of mask mandates leading to better COVID outcomes for any state or country.
We cannot explain how Norway had such a minor COVID problem for the first 6-7 months of the disease, despite the entire country refusing masks at the time.
In general, I am very anti-mask-mandate, but pro-vaccine.