Sick 16 team $726k parlay relies on the lions

[Texter]

Oof….what a sweat….Lions are shit…

https://theathletic.com/news/lions-p...y/4ZHLLbq26zLN

[HoodedN]

Interesting situation. I have no clue what I would do in this spot. Hedging is obvious but the kind of money you’d have to invest to do it correctly is not something you typically find in a $25 parlay bettors bank account.

I wonder what he will do.

[BCR]

Interesting situation. I have no clue what I would do in this spot. Hedging is obvious but the kind of money you’d have to invest to do it correctly is not something you typically find in a $25 parlay bettors bank account.

I wonder what he will do.

From the article it was a promo with no cash out option. Seems like selling it to someone with the ability to properly hedge it with all the tax ramifications would be the play. Probably can’t legally sell it, but fuck if I wouldn’t try to if the money meant something to me. I’d first try to strike deal with the book and see what they’d give me, but MGM probably likes the free publicity. What a horrible fucking team to have a 16 teamer riding on. Probably the last team in the league I’d feel comfortable with. Especially going up against the Packers coming off getting embarrassed. I wouldn’t feel comfortable if I was +28. I’d be happy to sell that thing for $200k free and clear after taxes and hedging and all of it.

All I know is whatever I did, I would do the wrong thing. If I let it ride, they lose 48-0. If I hedged, the Lions win outright. If I sold it to someone, they’d probably roll me. If I hedged it myself, the line would probably have moved and I’d get middled and lose both somehow. There isn’t a real easy way to hedge it with the ML with that spread. I just know I’d fuck it up and manage to turn it into the lowest ROI possible. I’d sell it to Druff or San for $200k and let them figure it out.

[JeffDime]

Maybe not to this extent, but this is exactly the type thing people should do with small free bet promos. Bet MGM has not put many restrictions on there free bets and I have kind of been waiting for the party to be over. I just hope this publicity doesn’t lead to them putting restrictions on them. Last thing most people want is to only be able to make a straight bet to get $22 bucks back. It is great for taking shots from +500 or more payouts where the stake really isn’t important.

As for what this guy should be doing…getting as much money as possible on the GB moneyline and guarantee himself at least 25 K or so profit. May not be easy to get 150K or so together and then bet it. Hoping that the publicity has made it easier for him to get the money together and do the right thing. Don’t want to brick this.

[JeffDime]

I’d sell it to Druff or San for $200k and let them figure it out.

Seems kind of crazy but the Actual Cash Value from Bet MGMs perspective would only be a little bit over 130K. The number has moved up to +450. The also never give you full value when you cashout because of the convenience of not having to get all that coin together. My guess is they would offer him about 110K to cashout if this was not a free bet.

[PositiveVariance]

He’s kicking himself right now. Knowing if he had won the previous 15 games it would have come down to the Lyons/Packers game. So instead of taking the Packers and win low 6 figures, he takes the Lyons for the cool 3/4 of a million. His other underdogs were the Raiders and Titans both at +190. These were his 2 highest underdogs, nothing to crazy. I really hope the dude can either pull something straight out of his ass or find a way to hedge without losing a lot of value.

[BCR]

I’d sell it to Druff or San for $200k and let them figure it out.

Seems kind of crazy but the Actual Cash Value from Bet MGMs perspective would only be a little bit over 130K. The number has moved up to +450. The also never give you full value when you cashout because of the convenience of not having to get all that coin together. My guess is they would offer him about 110K to cashout if this was not a free bet.

Then I’d sell it for $100k lol. Whatever it took for me to not fuck it up. I’d hedge, then talk myself into a halftime bet, then somehow turn a $25 bet with $725k payout into a loser. I’d let the pros deal with it

[shoeshine box]

Interesting situation. I have no clue what I would do in this spot. Hedging is obvious but the kind of money you’d have to invest to do it correctly is not something you typically find in a $25 parlay bettors bank account.

I wonder what he will do.

being as you say un-aable to hedge, call his bookie,make a deal/get a loan on it......

[JeffDime]

Seems kind of crazy but the Actual Cash Value from Bet MGMs perspective would only be a little bit over 130K. The number has moved up to +450. The also never give you full value when you cashout because of the convenience of not having to get all that coin together. My guess is they would offer him about 110K to cashout if this was not a free bet.

Then I’d sell it for $100k lol. Whatever it took for me to not fuck it up. I’d hedge, then talk myself into a halftime bet, then somehow turn a $25 bet with $725k payout into a loser. I’d let the pros deal with it

For sure, in a perfect world I would say put 600K on Green Bay. End up with 94K or 126K and call it a day. But this guy probably couldn’t bring himself to kind of have to route against his initial bet so he didn’t leave 600K on the table. But that’s what I would try to do.

[nunbeater]

I'm not willing to bet on it but I feel like a Lions win is so gonna fucking happen tonight. The Lions may suck ass forever but they lost 41-33 against the 49ers who are looking pretty good this year, whereas the Pack got fucking demolished 38-3.

[BCR]

I'm not willing to bet on it but I feel like a Lions win is so gonna fucking happen tonight. The Lions may suck ass forever but they lost 41-33 against the 49ers who are looking pretty good this year, whereas the Pack got fucking demolished 38-3.

That’s only because I had the Niners -9 and they gave up like 21 garbage points after I wasn’t even worried about it and started sweating the close games. I’m like Verm. He probably had that also. I would guess the Packers win by 30, so you’re probably right and the Lions will win.

[JeffDime]

He’s kicking himself right now. Knowing if he had won the previous 15 games it would have come down to the Lyons/Packers game. So instead of taking the Packers and win low 6 figures, he takes the Lyons for the cool 3/4 of a million. His other underdogs were the Raiders and Titans both at +190. These were his 2 highest underdogs, nothing to crazy. I really hope the dude can either pull something straight out of his ass or find a way to hedge without losing a lot of value.

I’m sure he was mainly clicking buttons. Like you said, mostly favorites with a few dogs under +200. How he ended up with the massive dog for the Monday Night sweat? Either I’m not giving him enough credit and Green Bay fires a dud, he’s a Lion’s mark or the most likely answer…the gambling Gods are some truly sadistic fuckers.

[shoeshine box]

Interesting situation. I have no clue what I would do in this spot. Hedging is obvious but the kind of money you’d have to invest to do it correctly is not something you typically find in a $25 parlay bettors bank account.

I wonder what he will do.

From the article it was a promo with no cash out option. Seems like selling it to someone with the ability to properly hedge it with all the tax ramifications would be the play. Probably can’t legally sell it, but fuck if I wouldn’t try to if the money meant something to me. I’d first try to strike deal with the book and see what they’d give me, but MGM probably likes the free publicity. What a horrible fucking team to have a 16 teamer riding on. Probably the last team in the league I’d feel comfortable with. Especially going up against the Packers coming off getting embarrassed. I wouldn’t feel comfortable if I was +28. I’d be happy to sell that thing for $200k free and clear after taxes and hedging and all of it.

All I know is whatever I did, I would do the wrong thing. If I let it ride, they lose 48-0. If I hedged, the Lions win outright. If I sold it to someone, they’d probably roll me. If I hedged it myself, the line would probably have moved and I’d get middled and lose both somehow. There isn’t a real easy way to hedge it with the ML with that spread. I just know I’d fuck it up and manage to turn it into the lowest ROI possible. I’d sell it to Druff or San for $200k and let them figure it out.

after reading this, and it is honest as can be.....I realize how blessed we are at having some folks we could call in such a shituation. amen...

[jsearles22]

Detroit leading at halftime!

[Walter Sobchak]

LFG

[Crowe Diddly]

I like the Eli and Peyton cast, esp with Brett Favre on a DSL connection with a super long delay and no understanding of the dynamics of the digital broadcast.

[Gordman]

[jsearles22]

I like the Eli and Peyton cast, esp with Brett Favre on a DSL connection with a super long delay and no understanding of the dynamics of the digital broadcast.

My favorite part is Favre legit said “tell me what happened the first half, I wasn’t watching.” Like he knows he’s going on, his old team is playing, it’s MNF, but he’s too busy?

[Sanlmar]

I like the Eli and Peyton cast, esp with Brett Favre on a DSL connection with a super long delay and no understanding of the dynamics of the digital broadcast.

I completely forgot about the Manning alternate programming

[Crowe Diddly]

I like the Eli and Peyton cast, esp with Brett Favre on a DSL connection with a super long delay and no understanding of the dynamics of the digital broadcast.

I completely forgot about the Manning alternate programming

I dig it, way more than any standard pbp and commentary. Eli told a quick story about sneaking into a bar underage to meet Brett (who said he would have got him and his friend in no problem if Eli only asked him to lol), Peyton steams when dumb plays are called, it feels like an honest broadcast, for whatever that might mean. When they talk about the game in the moment, they're like Romo calling shit, but Peyton is super invested, and Eli is a way more likeable dude than I, a Pats fan, ever wanted to give him credit for.