The Great Canadian Election Thread

[Forum Wars]

905 (suburbs of Toronto) which are usually LIB could split somewhat to LIB/CON and at that point you unload your $0.14 O'Toole contract for $0.20. Quick 50% profit. Otherwise, get out without a loss or a small one.

Well, that was fast, you could have already got $0.18 - $0.25 on O'Toole if you bought him at $0.14 fifteen minutes ago, for a quick 35-80%.

Druff, feel free to move to move the Wagering thread, lol.

Honestly, O'Toole may now rise to $0.30 or $0.40 or $0.50 if Ontario 905 goes "SPLIT" which is certainly a possibility now.

[limitles]

This is the first Canadian election in which I can vote.

The NDP is a too far to the left for me and I don't like what the NDP government has done at the provincial level in BC.

The Conservatives are too far right for me and they're full of it. Their ads are annoying.

That leaves the Liberals. I live in a riding that typically goes Liberal anyway. I'm not super excited by Trudeau but I think he's done fine. There's no good solution to the pandemic that will please everyone, and a lot depends on province which is why BC is doing well and Alberta is fucking it up. He's done about as well as anyone could.

I predict a minority Liberal government with slightly fewer seats than they have now.

I don't know what the result will be but here are a few things I do know:
-- The election is run by civil servants and not people who are trying to tip the scales in their own favour or their party's favour
-- Anyone who wants to vote can vote by showing their ID and nobody has to jump through unreasonable hoops or wait 12 hours in line
-- Nobody will try to stop anyone else from voting
-- Nobody will claim the election was rigged or fraudulent
-- Nobody will try to stop votes from being counted
-- Nobody will go to court to overturn the results
-- There will not be a violent mob trying to kill anyone because they don't like the results

America can study this election if it hopes to be a democracy someday.

Is this sarcasm?

The difference between US & Canadian politics is slim at best.

Since the day Trump was elected Canadians have been on their high horse. Yes, Trump is terrible… but don’t kid yourselves, Canada is not above electing idiots.

Coming from a Canadian, living in Canada & voting today.

How wrong can one get?

[limitles]

These are the only one's worth voting for...

Les, is it mandatory at Canadians be intoxicated when they cast their ballots? It would explain a lot.

[Texter]

Watched some of the coverage on cspan out of curiosity….I lasted about 3 minutes.

Reminded me of my honeymoon.

[shoeshine box]

Liberal seats in Canadian election? I have.;...155-159. for the action

[limitles]

Check out the images of the three main candidates. Policies aside(lol)
it!'d like Kennedy vs. Nixon

[Ryback_feed_me_more]

So by my math Trudeau has to play nice with the whacker turban head to get his 1 seat majority govt at 170 seats with the seat+1 count of 148 for the Libs and 22 for the NDP.. I doubt he wants to play with the BQ but thats his choice either way this is hardly a vindication for Trudeau he almost didnt hold Parliament by my math.

[Ryback_feed_me_more]

Liberal seats in Canadian election? I have.;...155-159. for the action

148 is the reported number expected
NDP and BQ got almost identical numbers NDP 22 and BQ got 28 the remaining look to be likely almost entirely Conservatives maybe a possible seat to the Far Right Canadian Trumpet wannabes

[Ryback_feed_me_more]

O Toole will be the official Opposition leadership and lead the shadow ministry.. Trudeau's in a tough spot he has to embrace the Nationalist BQ maybe a little since the NDP would barely hold his minority govt together one seat.. If anything this leads me to think another election might be in the offing when the regular elections were indeed scheduled potentially.. The public in Canada is not going to continue with the insanity forever.. Even home delivery of TimBits only goes so far in a lockdown and forced mandates.. Canada will never allow the insanity of Australia to occur.

[BCR]

Liberal seats in Canadian election? I have.;...155-159. for the action

148 is the reported number expected
NDP and BQ got almost identical numbers NDP 22 and BQ got 28 the remaining look to be likely almost entirely Conservatives maybe a possible seat to the Far Right Canadian Trumpet wannabes

Wtf are you babbling about? The libs have at least 155. Somewhere near 160. Under 150 is 100-1. Go bet your 148 and get 100-1.

[limitles]

O Toole will be the official Opposition leadership and lead the shadow ministry.. Trudeau's in a tough spot he has to embrace the Nationalist BQ maybe a little since the NDP would barely hold his minority govt together one seat.. If anything this leads me to think another election might be in the offing when the regular elections were indeed scheduled potentially.. The public in Canada is not going to continue with the insanity forever.. Even home delivery of TimBits only goes so far in a lockdown and forced mandates.. Canada will never allow the insanity of Australia to occur.

Ignorant take. We maybe "cousins" but we left you to your own demise long ago and to our benefit IMO.
Don't confuse a minority of wackos, especially with a fool like O'Toole, a Trump wannabe leading their charge

[BCR]

There is a federal election in Canada on September 20.

This one is mildly interesting to me because a) it's not clear who will win, and b) my vote is still up for grabs.

Let's set the stage (disclaimer: I don't know much about politics so I'm giving my relatively naive take here so feel free to tell me what I've gotten wrong)

In Canada, there are 338 federal ridings that are each represented by a Member of Parliament (MP). In each riding, we vote among the MP candidates who typically represent one of the main political parties. After voting, the political party that has the most MPs elected becomes the governing party and their leader is the Prime Minister. The last election was in 2019 which was won by the Liberal party whose leader is Justin Trudeau, our current Prime Minister. The Liberals have been in power since 2015.

Here is my politically naive rundown of the major parties:

Liberal Party of Canada

-Political spectrum: Economically neutral, socially progressive (probably left of the Democratic Party in the U.S.)
-Seats won in 2019: 157 (minority government)
-Popular vote in 2019: 33.12%

Leader: Justin Trudeau
-Son of former PM Pierre Trudeau
-Analysis: I had high hopes for him when he was first elected PM in 2015 but he hasn't really done anything. He did okay during the pandemic. He's pretty cringey at times. I think a lot of Canadians are tired of his bullshit. A lot of the batshit right-wingers calling him a "Communist" are completely out to lunch.

Conservative Party of Canada

-Political spectrum: Economically right, socially conservative (probably somewhere between the Democrats and Republicans)
-Seats won in 2019: 121
-Popular vote in 2019: 34.34%

Leader: Erin O'Toole
-Replaced former leader Andrew Scheer after last election
-Analysis: More socially progressive than Scheer but not much more likable. The CPC actually won the popular vote in 2019 on the strength of the Prairie provinces which tend to skew conservative. O'Toole isn't exactly setting the world on fire. He seems fine.

New Democratic Party

-Political spectrum: Economically left, very socially progressive (if Bernie Sanders was a political party)
-Seats won in 2019: 24
-Popular vote in 2019: 15.98%

Leader: Jagmeet Singh
-Replaced former leader Tom Mulcair in 2017
-Analysis: Very woke. Does TikTok videos for the youngs.

Green Party of Canada

-Political spectrum: Economically left, socially progressive (similar to NDP)
-Seats won in 2019: 3
-Popular vote in 2019: 6.55%

Leader: Annamie Paul
-Don't know a thing about this person.
-Analysis: They basically run on a climate change platform.

Bloc Quebecois

-Political spectrum: Not sure but generally progressive except for issues of Quebec sovereignty
-Seats won in 2019: 32
-Popular vote in 2019: 7.63%

Leader: Yves-François Blanchet
-Very well liked in Quebec
-Analysis: This is the separatist party of Canada. They believe the province of Quebec should separate from Canada and form its own country. This party only has MP candidates in Quebec.

People's Party of Canada

-Political spectrum: Economically far right, socially far right
-Seats won in 2019: 0
-Popular vote in 2019: 1.62%

Leader: Maxime Bernier
-Former member of the Conservative Party. Ran for leader of the Conservatives in 2017 and lost to Andrew Scheer by a very narrow margin (49% to 51%). After losing he took his ball and went home to form his own party (PPC) and declared himself leader. Seems to be trying to be a Quebecois version of Trump.
-Analysis: This is the party to watch this election. COVID-19 has actually been a godsend for them. They were a joke before the pandemic. Now they are all about being anti-vax, anti-mask, anti-lockdown, etc. This stance resonates with about 10-15% of Canadian voters. While they won't get many (if any) seats in parliament, they will surely get a significant bump in the popular vote which will turn heads.

For a guy who appears to completely rational and great posts for the most part, this post is completely farcical. This is straight out of the playbook of the government bought and paid for MSMedia mostly CBC. I'll give you a partial pass for admitting early on you know very little about politics and it shows tremendously in this post. Complete hogwash !

It's election day in Canada. Go out and rock the vote all you fellow Crazy Canucks.

Here is the final polling average from 338Canada (Canada's version of Nate Silver's 538):



As you can see, the Liberals and Conservatives are polling at a virtual tie for the popular vote. However, that doesn't mean much because what matters is the number of MP seats won by each party.

Based on these polls, here is 338's seat projection:



If these end up being the results, virtually nothing will have changed from the 2019 election. There will still be a Liberal minority government. The Conservatives will still be the official opposition. The NDP will still be underwhelming. The Bloc Quebecois will still hold onto their 30-or-so seats in Quebec. The Green Party will still be a dying party. And the People's Party will still have no seats at all.

It will also mean that this was one of the most useless elections in Canadian history. Thanks Trudeau.

However, I have a funny feeling that the Conservatives will pull off an upset minority government. I guess we'll see later tonight.

It's election day in Canada. Go out and rock the vote all you fellow Crazy Canucks.

Here is the final polling average from 338Canada (Canada's version of Nate Silver's 538):



As you can see, the Liberals and Conservatives are polling at a virtual tie for the popular vote. However, that doesn't mean much because what matters is the number of MP seats won by each party.

Based on these polls, here is 338's seat projection:



If these end up being the results, virtually nothing will have changed from the 2019 election. There will still be a Liberal minority government. The Conservatives will still be the official opposition. The NDP will still be underwhelming. The Bloc Quebecois will still hold onto their 30-or-so seats in Quebec. The Green Party will still be a dying party. And the People's Party will still have no seats at all.

It will also mean that this was one of the most useless elections in Canadian history. Thanks Trudeau.

However, I have a funny feeling that the Conservatives will pull off an upset minority government. I guess we'll see later tonight.

PPC will get between 2-5 seats, I'm going with 3. They are a real party that has a legitimate shot in winning in the near future. Massive underdogs. That 5.9% is also MSM horseshit its closer to 10% in reality.

The Shrink made a great thread. Imagine rolling up in your short bus like proudboy MAGA and being this fucking wrong, and such an asshole while being so laughably stone cold stupid. Team Retard, axis of stupid, strikes again. Keeps perfect record of never being right intact. Good call jackass.

[The Shrink]

The Shrink made a great thread. Imagine rolling up in your short bus like proudboy MAGA and being this fucking wrong, and such an asshole while being so laughably stone cold stupid. Team Retard, axis of stupid, strikes again. Keeps perfect record of never being right intact. Good call jackass.

There are still mail-in ballots to count but there were fewer than expected and they likely won't change much. There are a few close races that could be flipped but ultimately it would not affect the main result which is a Liberal minority government.

They called this one very early. There was even live news footage of people standing in 3 hr+ lines waiting to vote AFTER the result had been projected.

Here are the tentative results:



They match up incredibly well with 338's projections. The polls slightly overestimated how well the PPC would do. They only got 5.1% in the popular vote (no seats). Actually that's around what Bernier predicted he would get and he's calling that a win. However, I'm already seeing many PPC supporters calling the election rigged. Sounds familiar...

[limitles]

O Toole will be the official Opposition leadership and lead the shadow ministry.. Trudeau's in a tough spot he has to embrace the Nationalist BQ maybe a little since the NDP would barely hold his minority govt together one seat.. If anything this leads me to think another election might be in the offing when the regular elections were indeed scheduled potentially.. The public in Canada is not going to continue with the insanity forever.. Even home delivery of TimBits only goes so far in a lockdown and forced mandates.. Canada will never allow the insanity of Australia to occur.

Ignorant take. We maybe "cousins" but we left you to your own demise long ago and to our benefit IMO.
Don't confuse a minority of wackos, especially with a fool like O'Toole, a Trump wannabe leading their charge

Write you are

[Walter Sobchak]

The Shrink made a great thread. Imagine rolling up in your short bus like proudboy MAGA and being this fucking wrong, and such an asshole while being so laughably stone cold stupid. Team Retard, axis of stupid, strikes again. Keeps perfect record of never being right intact. Good call jackass.

There are still mail-in ballots to count but there were fewer than expected and they likely won't change much. There are a few close races that could be flipped but ultimately it would not affect the main result which is a Liberal minority government.

They called this one very early. There was even live news footage of people standing in 3 hr+ lines waiting to vote AFTER the result had been projected.

Here are the tentative results:



They match up incredibly well with 338's projections. The polls slightly overestimated how well the PPC would do. They only got 5.1% in the popular vote (no seats). Actually that's around what Bernier predicted he would get and he's calling that a win. However, I'm already seeing many PPC supporters calling the election rigged. Sounds familiar...

Shows there are idiots everywhere.

[DJ_Chaps]

O Toole will be the official Opposition leadership and lead the shadow ministry.. Trudeau's in a tough spot he has to embrace the Nationalist BQ maybe a little since the NDP would barely hold his minority govt together one seat.. If anything this leads me to think another election might be in the offing when the regular elections were indeed scheduled potentially.. The public in Canada is not going to continue with the insanity forever.. Even home delivery of TimBits only goes so far in a lockdown and forced mandates.. Canada will never allow the insanity of Australia to occur.

Ignorant take. We maybe "cousins" but we left you to your own demise long ago and to our benefit IMO.
Don't confuse a minority of wackos, especially with a fool like O'Toole, a Trump wannabe leading their charge

Otoole isn’t a trump wannabe, that’s bernier

[Texter]

So in Canada you don’t have 24 hour a day drive thru voting?

AND you have to show ID?

Turnout must be super low with such egregious limits on voting.

[The Shrink]

So in Canada you don’t have 24 hour a day drive thru voting?

AND you have to show ID?

Turnout must be super low with such egregious limits on voting.

I'm actually curious how the voting process works in the U.S. practically speaking.

In Canada we receive a physical voter card in the mail. We bring the card to our designated voting station (mine was about a 5 minute walk from my place and there was no wait at all). They take your card and verify it with your ID, go through their voter list and cross off your name, give you a ballot and you vote. Took me 5 minutes total.

Apparently, you can still vote with no ID:

If you don't have ID: You can still vote if you declare your identity and address in writing and have someone who knows you and who is assigned to your polling station vouch for you. The voucher must be able to prove their identity and address. A person can vouch for only one person (except in long-term care facilities).

https://www.elections.ca/content2.as...g=e&section=id

By the way, we had about 59% voter turnout in this election which was relatively low. In 2019, 67% of Canadians voted. In the 80s, closer to 75% of Canadians voted.

[Texter]

I'm actually curious how the voting process works in the U.S. practically speaking.

In Canada we receive a physical voter card in the mail. We bring the card to our designated voting station (mine was about a 5 minute walk from my place and there was no wait at all). They take your card and verify it with your ID, go through their voter list and cross off your name, give you a ballot and you vote. Took me 5 minutes total.

Apparently, you can still vote with no ID:

If you don't have ID: You can still vote if you declare your identity and address in writing and have someone who knows you and who is assigned to your polling station vouch for you. The voucher must be able to prove their identity and address. A person can vouch for only one person (except in long-term care facilities).

https://www.elections.ca/content2.as...g=e&section=id


By the way, we had about 59% voter turnout in this election which was relatively low. In 2019, 67% of Canadians voted. In the 80s, closer to 75% of Canadians voted.

Normally the US works about the same, before the voter ID law in TX all you needed was the voter card that came in the mail, now you don’t need that, just a photo ID. You can also vote by mail or vote early a few weeks before the election. This past election you could drive through vote in your car due to Covid, how that is a secret ballot when two people are voting in the car at the same time I’ll never know.

The GOP decided that car voting is technically not allowed due the state constitution and have been accused of trying to make voting too hard.

[Walter Sobchak]

I'm actually curious how the voting process works in the U.S. practically speaking.

In Canada we receive a physical voter card in the mail. We bring the card to our designated voting station (mine was about a 5 minute walk from my place and there was no wait at all). They take your card and verify it with your ID, go through their voter list and cross off your name, give you a ballot and you vote. Took me 5 minutes total.

Apparently, you can still vote with no ID:



https://www.elections.ca/content2.as...g=e&section=id


By the way, we had about 59% voter turnout in this election which was relatively low. In 2019, 67% of Canadians voted. In the 80s, closer to 75% of Canadians voted.

Normally the US works about the same, before the voter ID law in TX all you needed was the voter card that came in the mail, now you don’t need that, just a photo ID. You can also vote by mail or vote early a few weeks before the election. This past election you could drive through vote in your car due to Covid, how that is a secret ballot when two people are voting in the car at the same time I’ll never know.

The GOP decided that car voting is technically not allowed due the state constitution and have been accused of trying to make voting too hard.

Bullshit. They have changed way more rules than that and are clearly targeting likely Democratic voters.