I'm in hotels for the next few days I'm so enjoying the cable sports(Jays a serious threat) but I'm also seeing the political ads. They have a month max to place these ads.
The Conservative/kinda right candidate is literally calling for Canadians to "take back Canada"
Considering what just happened south of the border that has to be the dumbest
message/policy ever
Notice you didn’t refute one piece of evidence I gave. Reality is the head of the NDP did get ejected
From Parliament for his tirade and calling the head of the BQ a racist this isn’t up for rebuttal it happened. Also he was sounded ridiculed for essentially ignoring the Native First Nation people in Western Canada and then only apologized after getting hammered over it. None of what I said is debatable Singh is a far left pos on par with the Squad clowns in the US Congress. He’s dangerous.
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The NDP is important in that they represent a certain per cent of the population. They are serious in their polices/beliefs and deserve respect. They are however a minority of the population and have never won the popular vote as the governing party
My ignoring your personal thoughts on this party was not a shot at you (for once) or of the NDP, but my experience as a Canadian for many years
You have to figure in the Quebec factor. Papa Trudeau was an amazing leader (my opinion) and son Justin has a stronger tie with that province than any other candidate.
Big factor
This is the first Canadian election in which I can vote.
The NDP is a too far to the left for me and I don't like what the NDP government has done at the provincial level in BC.
The Conservatives are too far right for me and they're full of it. Their ads are annoying.
That leaves the Liberals. I live in a riding that typically goes Liberal anyway. I'm not super excited by Trudeau but I think he's done fine. There's no good solution to the pandemic that will please everyone, and a lot depends on province which is why BC is doing well and Alberta is fucking it up. He's done about as well as anyone could.
I predict a minority Liberal government with slightly fewer seats than they have now.
I don't know what the result will be but here are a few things I do know:
-- The election is run by civil servants and not people who are trying to tip the scales in their own favour or their party's favour
-- Anyone who wants to vote can vote by showing their ID and nobody has to jump through unreasonable hoops or wait 12 hours in line
-- Nobody will try to stop anyone else from voting
-- Nobody will claim the election was rigged or fraudulent
-- Nobody will try to stop votes from being counted
-- Nobody will go to court to overturn the results
-- There will not be a violent mob trying to kill anyone because they don't like the results
America can study this election if it hopes to be a democracy someday.
HILLARY WON
Is this sarcasm?
The difference between US & Canadian politics is slim at best.
Since the day Trump was elected Canadians have been on their high horse. Yes, Trump is terrible… but don’t kid yourselves, Canada is not above electing idiots.
Coming from a Canadian, living in Canada & voting today.
It's election day in Canada. Go out and rock the vote all you fellow Crazy Canucks.
Here is the final polling average from 338Canada (Canada's version of Nate Silver's 538):
As you can see, the Liberals and Conservatives are polling at a virtual tie for the popular vote. However, that doesn't mean much because what matters is the number of MP seats won by each party.
Based on these polls, here is 338's seat projection:
If these end up being the results, virtually nothing will have changed from the 2019 election. There will still be a Liberal minority government. The Conservatives will still be the official opposition. The NDP will still be underwhelming. The Bloc Quebecois will still hold onto their 30-or-so seats in Quebec. The Green Party will still be a dying party. And the People's Party will still have no seats at all.
It will also mean that this was one of the most useless elections in Canadian history. Thanks Trudeau.
However, I have a funny feeling that the Conservatives will pull off an upset minority government. I guess we'll see later tonight.
Wait….you have to show ID to vote? Racists.
These are the only one's worth voting for...
Believe it or not, I am distantly related to at least one of the leaders of one of those parties. I’ve done geneological research on my family tree and have traced one side of my family back to about 200+ French immigrants to New France in the 17th century. Using a free online geneology resource, I just now confirmed that one of those party leaders is a 7th cousin once removed. Can’t say I’d vote for his party, though, because I don’t base my politics on family relations.
Is there any way to bet directly against this? I’m looking at predictit, and see no market. Obviously the market is swinging towards liberals winning more decisively than predicted. Somewhere in the 152-160 range according to most. I’m looking at the .18 150-154 number just for a sweat.
Most things I read say any surge by these PPC loons actually hurt the tories, but you have to worry about NDP cutting nto liberal vote as they are way more popular than PPC from all appearances.
I’d like to bet against this PPC party I just knew existed 3 days ago on the same premise that I said in Newsom thread. Anyone on Team Retard Axis is always wrong and embarrasses themselves. I’m guessing if he’s saying 3, it will be zero or 1. Probably zero as they are usually laughably wrong
Is there any market to bet specifically against the PPC?
I don’t know if our US election guru who shall not be named has chimed in on the site that shall not be named. I’m not seeing anything.
Know nothing about Canadian politics, but markets seem to be pushing moderately in the direction of a good night for liberals. The most recent traction seems to be in the 160+ range, with a liberal true majority still a long shot, but better odds than tories with a minor majority. There is not much liquidity in the market though, so hard to gauge if it’s just noise or based in reality. One person moving a max position is swinging the markets a nickel either way.
I didn’t take any position as I was going in for the 150-154 range, but most things I’m reading seem to signal a little bigger margin for liberals and i like to at least know a little about what I’m betting, and opinion seems all over from commentary, but most arguing small gain for liberals to decent sized gain. Haven’t read any commentary from today talking about gains for conservatives. Of course, election markets are known for wide last minute swings. How quickly does Canada tabulate and project once polls close?
Libs will win (minority), but not looking good for them right now (they sometimes sweep Atlantic Canada but are NOT this time, Conservatives winning more than what they usually do there - especially in Nova Scotia)...might be some $$$ to be made betting on O'Toole (Conservative) at 14 cents at Predictit.org and unloading it when he goes to 20 cents. Not financial advice.
905 (suburbs of Toronto) which are usually LIB could split somewhat to LIB/CON and at that point you unload your $0.14 O'Toole contract for $0.20. Quick 50% profit. Otherwise, get out without a loss or a small one.
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