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Thread: Anyone want to bet me regarding Gavin Newsom being recalled?

  1. #1
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Anyone want to bet me regarding Gavin Newsom being recalled?

    Right now, it's +250 YES/+400 NO on Betonline. The midpoint is 325, meaning that's the "fair" value without house juice.

    I'm looking for anyone who wants to take NO -325 on the recall. I would take the YES side.

    You will need to ship to me to hold, unless you have a trusted third party in mind. Bet will settle after the recall election completes and is certified. The recall election is in September, so we won't be waiting very long.

    If interested, either post here or PM me.

    Please do NOT troll this thread. Also please do NOT offer "better" NO lines to compete with my potential action. Thanks.

  2. #2
    Diamond Walter Sobchak's Avatar
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    In the other thread I offered 2:1. I’ll offer 2.5:1 and take the NO. Up to $2,500 for me/$1K for you.

    I’m assuming this doesn’t violate the prohibition on offering better odds because they’re better for me, not the other side, but if it violates just delete.
    SOBCHAK SECURITY 213-799-7798

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  3. #3
    im pretty sure hes not getting recalled but i dont like that line enough to risk money on it.
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

  4. #4
    btw my family in LA is pretty sure all the 'omg newsom might lose by double digits' articles are being pushed by newsom to scare up fundraising.

     
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      NickyPipes: Not a bad strategy brother
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

  5. #5
    Brothers have you noticed how Druff is always trying to get people to “ship” to him first?

     
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      sonatine: brother this is most suspicious i had never noticed before.

  6. #6
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak View Post
    In the other thread I offered 2:1. I’ll offer 2.5:1 and take the NO. Up to $2,500 for me/$1K for you.

    I’m assuming this doesn’t violate the prohibition on offering better odds because they’re better for me, not the other side, but if it violates just delete.
    No, this is fine since you're looking for the other side, and not the same side. I just didn't want someone else undercutting me by saying, "I'll give you -300, better than Druff's -325".

    I accept your offer for the +250, and I'll accept the maximum of $2500/$1000.

    So if Newsom gets recalled, you will pay me $2500. If he does not, I will pay you $1000.

    Post before 6am PDT on 8/10/21 that you accept, and it is booked. However, each of us will also have the ability to back out and cancel the bet if we publicly post the intention to do so before 6am PDT on 8/10/21. (This will protect both sides in case a major poll or news drops before then.)

     
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      NickyPipes: Good luck brother

  7. #7
    Diamond Walter Sobchak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak View Post
    In the other thread I offered 2:1. I’ll offer 2.5:1 and take the NO. Up to $2,500 for me/$1K for you.

    I’m assuming this doesn’t violate the prohibition on offering better odds because they’re better for me, not the other side, but if it violates just delete.
    No, this is fine since you're looking for the other side, and not the same side. I just didn't want someone else undercutting me by saying, "I'll give you -300, better than Druff's -325".

    I accept your offer for the +250, and I'll accept the maximum of $2500/$1000.

    So if Newsom gets recalled, you will pay me $2500. If he does not, I will pay you $1000.

    Post before 6am PDT on 8/10/21 that you accept, and it is booked. However, each of us will also have the ability to back out and cancel the bet if we publicly post the intention to do so before 6am PDT on 8/10/21. (This will protect both sides in case a major poll or news drops before then.)
    So that’s 6 am PDT tomorrow? Ok I’ll keep my eye out for something big.

    I accept and I will find a way to ship to you.

    Question: what if he is recalled but the successor voted in is a Democrat? Does that change anything?
    SOBCHAK SECURITY 213-799-7798

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  8. #8
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    No, this is a strict recall bet. The successor doesn't figure in to this.

    You have until 8/10/21 at 6am PDT (Los Angeles time) to back out of this bet for any reason, as do I. Simply post here before then, stating you wish to back out, and it will be void. After that time, it is considered booked.

  9. #9
    Diamond Walter Sobchak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    No, this is a strict recall bet. The successor doesn't figure in to this.

    You have until 8/10/21 at 6am PDT (Los Angeles time) to back out of this bet for any reason, as do I. Simply post here before then, stating you wish to back out, and it will be void. After that time, it is considered booked.
    Noted. Druff but fair.

    Do you have some inside info?
    Last edited by Walter Sobchak; 08-09-2021 at 06:48 PM.
    SOBCHAK SECURITY 213-799-7798

    PRESIDENT JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR., THE GREAT AND POWERFUL

  10. #10
    Can either party commit to donating 10% of your profits to the Onestep Vaca Fund? Flights to Vegas in Oct are stupid expensive.

    Thanks in Advance

     
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      ftpjesus: please stop begging
    Quote Originally Posted by big dick View Post

    idk how old your kid is but i know teenagers carry more viral load than anyone

  11. #11
    Diamond Walter Sobchak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Onestep View Post
    Can either party commit to donating 10% of your profits to the Onestep Vaca Fund? Flights to Vegas in Oct are stupid expensive.

    Thanks in Advance
    I thought you were selling fake vaccination records? That should be lucrative.
    SOBCHAK SECURITY 213-799-7798

    PRESIDENT JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR., THE GREAT AND POWERFUL

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Onestep View Post
    Can either party commit to donating 10% of your profits to the Onestep Vaca Fund? Flights to Vegas in Oct are stupid expensive.

    Thanks in Advance
    I thought you were selling fake vaccination records? That should be lucrative.

    Yea, cant really advertise that though. Ironically, Dark Web sites allow Heroin and Meth listings but forbid Covid vaccine card ads. Weird morals right?
    Quote Originally Posted by big dick View Post

    idk how old your kid is but i know teenagers carry more viral load than anyone

  13. #13
    Platinum ftpjesus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Onestep View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak View Post

    I thought you were selling fake vaccination records? That should be lucrative.

    Yea, cant really advertise that though. Ironically, Dark Web sites allow Heroin and Meth listings but forbid Covid vaccine card ads. Weird morals right?
    Not so much if ya think about it.. Drugs are drugs its a libertarian logic in a way that all drugs should be legal and its a free country if you chose be an addict.. The fake cards is seen as potentially probably a fraud being perpetrated ultimately.. Its funny theyve come down hard on some folks for doing that by the FBI yet they seem to care less about the dregs of NXVIUM and Epsteins friends still lurking about abusing children.. Local PD just finally arrrested some Covid Nazi Democrat (who was screaming for renewed mask mandates and had been diagnosed) for shit he did in 2019 being a child toucher..

     
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      Onestep: they still allow fraud and identity theft listings

  14. #14
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    No, this is a strict recall bet. The successor doesn't figure in to this.

    You have until 8/10/21 at 6am PDT (Los Angeles time) to back out of this bet for any reason, as do I. Simply post here before then, stating you wish to back out, and it will be void. After that time, it is considered booked.
    Noted. Druff but fair.

    Do you have some inside info?
    No. I wouldn't screw you like that. I only started closely following this 2 days ago, and just decided that, in my opinion, Newsom has a good chance of being recalled, whereas before he didn't.

    If I had insider info, I would bet this on Predictit and online sportsbooks, but not against PFA members or any individual.

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by ftpjesus View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Onestep View Post


    Yea, cant really advertise that though. Ironically, Dark Web sites allow Heroin and Meth listings but forbid Covid vaccine card ads. Weird morals right?
    Not so much if ya think about it.. Drugs are drugs its a libertarian logic in a way that all drugs should be legal and its a free country if you chose be an addict.. The fake cards is seen as potentially probably a fraud being perpetrated ultimately.. Its funny theyve come down hard on some folks for doing that by the FBI yet they seem to care less about the dregs of NXVIUM and Epsteins friends still lurking about abusing children.. Local PD just finally arrrested some Covid Nazi Democrat (who was screaming for renewed mask mandates and had been diagnosed) for shit he did in 2019 being a child toucher..

    the heat they would bring down on themselves by allowing them would be not entirely dissimilar to them allowing sales of chemical or biological weapons.
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

  16. #16
    Diamond Walter Sobchak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak View Post
    Noted. Druff but fair.

    Do you have some inside info?
    No. I wouldn't screw you like that. I only started closely following this 2 days ago, and just decided that, in my opinion, Newsom has a good chance of being recalled, whereas before he didn't.

    If I had insider info, I would bet this on Predictit and online sportsbooks, but not against PFA members or any individual.
    I didn’t really think you’d do that I just thought 6 am PT was an odd cutoff time but then I remembered that’s when radio is usually finishing up.
    SOBCHAK SECURITY 213-799-7798

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  17. #17
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post

    No. I wouldn't screw you like that. I only started closely following this 2 days ago, and just decided that, in my opinion, Newsom has a good chance of being recalled, whereas before he didn't.

    If I had insider info, I would bet this on Predictit and online sportsbooks, but not against PFA members or any individual.
    I didn’t really think you’d do that I just thought 6 am PT was an odd cutoff time but then I remembered that’s when radio is usually finishing up.
    Just wanted to give each person all night to look online and decide for sure, yet before any news from August 10 would likely drop.

  18. #18
    Can I bet the $107 in freeroll winnings I am owed? If so just tag me in with Walt.

  19. #19
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CryptoNinja View Post
    Can I bet the $107 in freeroll winnings I am owed? If so just tag me in with Walt.
    Ok, we'll do it. $107 at -250, so you get another $42.80 if Newsom isn't recalled.

    Same 6am deadline (3 hours from now) to back out.

  20. #20
    Platinum ftpjesus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by ftpjesus View Post

    Not so much if ya think about it.. Drugs are drugs its a libertarian logic in a way that all drugs should be legal and its a free country if you chose be an addict.. The fake cards is seen as potentially probably a fraud being perpetrated ultimately.. Its funny theyve come down hard on some folks for doing that by the FBI yet they seem to care less about the dregs of NXVIUM and Epsteins friends still lurking about abusing children.. Local PD just finally arrrested some Covid Nazi Democrat (who was screaming for renewed mask mandates and had been diagnosed) for shit he did in 2019 being a child toucher..

    the heat they would bring down on themselves by allowing them would be not entirely dissimilar to them allowing sales of chemical or biological weapons.
    But its hardly a secret anymore that the feds have infiltrated the dark web long ago.. Anybody big time learned their lesson after Silk Road went down.. The Feds dont waste millions pursuing small fish
    Last edited by ftpjesus; 08-10-2021 at 12:51 PM. Reason: There are three ways to spell (their, there, theyre) and I blew it the first time

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