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Thread: Anyone want to bet me regarding Gavin Newsom being recalled?

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  1. #1
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Anyone want to bet me regarding Gavin Newsom being recalled?

    Right now, it's +250 YES/+400 NO on Betonline. The midpoint is 325, meaning that's the "fair" value without house juice.

    I'm looking for anyone who wants to take NO -325 on the recall. I would take the YES side.

    You will need to ship to me to hold, unless you have a trusted third party in mind. Bet will settle after the recall election completes and is certified. The recall election is in September, so we won't be waiting very long.

    If interested, either post here or PM me.

    Please do NOT troll this thread. Also please do NOT offer "better" NO lines to compete with my potential action. Thanks.

  2. #2
    Diamond Walter Sobchak's Avatar
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    In the other thread I offered 2:1. I’ll offer 2.5:1 and take the NO. Up to $2,500 for me/$1K for you.

    I’m assuming this doesn’t violate the prohibition on offering better odds because they’re better for me, not the other side, but if it violates just delete.

    SOBCHAK SECURITY 213-799-7798

    PRESIDENT JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR., THE GREAT AND POWERFUL

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    Plutonium sonatine's Avatar
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    im pretty sure hes not getting recalled but i dont like that line enough to risk money on it.
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

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    Plutonium sonatine's Avatar
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    btw my family in LA is pretty sure all the 'omg newsom might lose by double digits' articles are being pushed by newsom to scare up fundraising.

     
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      NickyPipes: Not a bad strategy brother
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

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    Brothers have you noticed how Druff is always trying to get people to “ship” to him first?

     
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      sonatine: brother this is most suspicious i had never noticed before.

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    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak View Post
    In the other thread I offered 2:1. I’ll offer 2.5:1 and take the NO. Up to $2,500 for me/$1K for you.

    I’m assuming this doesn’t violate the prohibition on offering better odds because they’re better for me, not the other side, but if it violates just delete.
    No, this is fine since you're looking for the other side, and not the same side. I just didn't want someone else undercutting me by saying, "I'll give you -300, better than Druff's -325".

    I accept your offer for the +250, and I'll accept the maximum of $2500/$1000.

    So if Newsom gets recalled, you will pay me $2500. If he does not, I will pay you $1000.

    Post before 6am PDT on 8/10/21 that you accept, and it is booked. However, each of us will also have the ability to back out and cancel the bet if we publicly post the intention to do so before 6am PDT on 8/10/21. (This will protect both sides in case a major poll or news drops before then.)

     
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      NickyPipes: Good luck brother

  7. #7
    Diamond Walter Sobchak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak View Post
    In the other thread I offered 2:1. I’ll offer 2.5:1 and take the NO. Up to $2,500 for me/$1K for you.

    I’m assuming this doesn’t violate the prohibition on offering better odds because they’re better for me, not the other side, but if it violates just delete.
    No, this is fine since you're looking for the other side, and not the same side. I just didn't want someone else undercutting me by saying, "I'll give you -300, better than Druff's -325".

    I accept your offer for the +250, and I'll accept the maximum of $2500/$1000.

    So if Newsom gets recalled, you will pay me $2500. If he does not, I will pay you $1000.

    Post before 6am PDT on 8/10/21 that you accept, and it is booked. However, each of us will also have the ability to back out and cancel the bet if we publicly post the intention to do so before 6am PDT on 8/10/21. (This will protect both sides in case a major poll or news drops before then.)
    So that’s 6 am PDT tomorrow? Ok I’ll keep my eye out for something big.

    I accept and I will find a way to ship to you.

    Question: what if he is recalled but the successor voted in is a Democrat? Does that change anything?

    SOBCHAK SECURITY 213-799-7798

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    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    No, this is a strict recall bet. The successor doesn't figure in to this.

    You have until 8/10/21 at 6am PDT (Los Angeles time) to back out of this bet for any reason, as do I. Simply post here before then, stating you wish to back out, and it will be void. After that time, it is considered booked.

  9. #9
    Diamond Walter Sobchak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    No, this is a strict recall bet. The successor doesn't figure in to this.

    You have until 8/10/21 at 6am PDT (Los Angeles time) to back out of this bet for any reason, as do I. Simply post here before then, stating you wish to back out, and it will be void. After that time, it is considered booked.
    Noted. Druff but fair.

    Do you have some inside info?
    Last edited by Walter Sobchak; 08-09-2021 at 06:48 PM.

    SOBCHAK SECURITY 213-799-7798

    PRESIDENT JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR., THE GREAT AND POWERFUL

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    Got my ballot for the CA governor recall in the mail today!
    in addition to voting yes or no on the recall you can vote for who should replace Newsom if the recall passes.
    On the ballot there are 46 names! Plus you can write in anyone you want! The winner is simply the one with the most votes.
    So if each of the listed names gets 100 votes but 101 people write in "Todd Witteles", he will be the Governor of CA!

    Here are a couple of my favorites:

    A self-described immigrant hair-stylist whose solution to the homeless crisis is to take over several multi-level parking structures and assign each homeless person their own numbered space so that they can bring their pets and possessions and be protected from the elements. (I am NOT making this up!)

    A Green Party free speech and animal rights lawyer who does not really want to win but figures he would be a good choice if the recall passes.

    And yes, Caitlan Jenner is on the ballot, right at the top!

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    Gold Cerveza Fria's Avatar
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    I remember during the last recall there were a couple of Porn stars that were running.

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