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Thread: ***Official Zed Run Thread***

  1. #501
    Platinum garrett's Avatar
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    I really think they handled this as good as they could have

    Given this is probably as bad as it could get, customer confidence wise too. Saying yes it happened and oretty fast, while also having done the research I thought was well handled. They seemed to me, to not act erratically but handled it in time, to get to the correct end result. And now moving forward I really think its going to be much more than ever scrutiny alway, and internally now so sum total the game gets tighter and better from here on out because of this I think. Honestly think Zed handlded this disaster as swiftly, and well as they could of. And can now regroup and move on better, hopefully. I think they are so good, and big with massive partners this ship is never sinking now, never ever. Sure scumbags will get found out, maybe thief's who knows, but Zeds going big places and it is fun. Anyone who gets into digital horse racing and gets a stable will know even just after work its fun =)

  2. #502
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    BUMP

    ZED is going to do some new things in 2022. Among them, they are going to allow people to rent (currently unreleased) genesis horses.

    Interestingly, the type of horse affected by this most will be Finneys, as only about half of them are currently given out, and the other half will be available for rental.

    https://twitter.com/SN_Stables/status/1476976401525862400

    By contrast, only 5% of Nakamotos and Szabos are unreleased, while about 20% of Buterins remain.

    This will probably raise the value of the three genesis Finneys I own.

    Of those three Finneys, none have raced, but all have bred. My one male (Unhand Me) has produced nothing but donks. Tiquero (female) has produced some decent horses but also some donks. Darci's Money has produced mostly donks, but did manage to create my best racer (Flying Stupidity).

    It is likely that Tiquero, a Z6 Finney genesis, is my most valuable horse.

    Here is a list of the other changes ZED will be making in 2022: https://community.zed.run/2021/12/31...e-future-2022/

    Some of these sound pretty cool, so I hope they actually happen.

    I also might stop selling horses, as they will be dropping tokens in early 2022, partially based upon horse ownership (and some other factors). So it might be a mistake right now to let go of my donks for $60-$80 like I've been doing.

  3. #503
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    bg_alt is a really bright guy, who spends a lot of time statistically analyzing ZED. His latest findings don't require a stats genius to have noticed over the past month, but he's basically confirmed what I have been saying: Racing has been dramatically harder since they realigned the classes last month (and brought negative points back to free racing).

    https://twitter.com/bg_alt/status/1479685221008109568
    https://twitter.com/bg_alt/status/1479689355123847169


    All five classes are very competitive right now. Even at Class 5 $2.50 races -- the lowest tier paid race type -- you need to have a fairly good horse to compete.

    I had horses who were beating the $2.50s by a fairly good margin (KROQ Ken and Ice Cold AC) who can't compete anymore at any paid race on the system. Thus, I don't race them anymore.

    Flying Stupidity used to be able to win at Class 2 $10 races. I had to tank him down to Class 4 just so he could be +EV at $5 races.

    Projekt SEP needed to be downgraded to from Class 4 to Class 5 in order to win $5 races again (and he still doesn't usually flame).

    Catfish also needed to go down from 5 to 4, in order to win $5 races.

    Ptarmigan also needs to go down to class 5, but I can't get him down because he's too good at all lengths to reliably lose at free races, so he's stuck at upper class 4. So right now he's useless. Before, he was my most profitable racer. Sad!

    I have two other horses (Esteem and Lowballin KYH Princess) who would be winning at Class 4, but can't get back there because they are mid-distance horses, and again don't reliably lose free races.

    My new horse One to Grow On, who can beat Class 5 $2.50 races at 2000m (and nothing else), is about the minimum you need these days: https://www.hawku.com/horse/177140


    Sadly, all of this was predictable. ZED unfortunately makes reactionary changes to their class system, without bothering to think about how players will adjust. They need to think one step ahead, but they don't. I've still been able to grind out a small continuous profit on ZED racing, but all of the downclassing is really cooking the fun out of it.

    More importantly, this is crushing any chance new users have to get going with racing, as not a single paid race is easy nowadays. Every single race has several good horses in it.

  4. #504
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    ZED also gave a news update today: https://community.zed.run/2022/01/08/zed-rundown/

    Among other things, they claim their new ELO based rating system -- promised since August -- will be dropping in a few weeks.

    That's good, right?

    Not so fast.

    The Elo rating system. This is in its final phases of testing. The new rating system will determine a racehorse’s class by calculating a racehorse’s rating according to its position at the end of any given race, relative to the field of competition. This will more accurately represent a racehorse’s rating based on its past performance. We are still on track for a late January release!
    I already see a problem with this. The Elo system is going to rate your horse both based upon how it finished AND how good the competition was. This type of system is used in chess, and works well. Here it won't work so well. Why?

    Because you can still game the system by simply entering free races at lengths where your horse isn't good, and it will corrupt the Elo rating. That isn't possible in chess, as there's no such thing as "lengths" in chess.

    No doubt this is going to be immediately exploited in several ways, and again all 5 classes will be tough.

  5. #505
    Gold MrTickle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    ZED also gave a news update today: https://community.zed.run/2022/01/08/zed-rundown/

    Among other things, they claim their new ELO based rating system -- promised since August -- will be dropping in a few weeks.

    That's good, right?

    Not so fast.

    The Elo rating system. This is in its final phases of testing. The new rating system will determine a racehorse’s class by calculating a racehorse’s rating according to its position at the end of any given race, relative to the field of competition. This will more accurately represent a racehorse’s rating based on its past performance. We are still on track for a late January release!
    I already see a problem with this. The Elo system is going to rate your horse both based upon how it finished AND how good the competition was. This type of system is used in chess, and works well. Here it won't work so well. Why?

    Because you can still game the system by simply entering free races at lengths where your horse isn't good, and it will corrupt the Elo rating. That isn't possible in chess, as there's no such thing as "lengths" in chess.

    No doubt this is going to be immediately exploited in several ways, and again all 5 classes will be tough.
    For this to be fair they'd need to have Elo for each length, like they do for different chess formats (classic, blitz, rapid)

  6. #506
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Gonna give you guys some valuable info regarding buying horses.

    First off, get familiar with the "Listing" tool on hawku.com. Learn how to filter horses for sale by various categories.

    The most important thing you need to learn about buying horses is something which isn't well known/understood by the ZED Racing public. There were six different "eras" on ZED Run regarding racing difficulty, and a successful racer in a prior era may be a donkey today.

    Here are the six eras:


    1. The Pre-Blowup-Era: Before 5/7/21
    This was before ZED became well known by the NFT-loving public, and was relatively under the radar. This was BEFORE the big drops which happened in May and June, and there were relatively few horses in the ecosystem. Any results from this era should be mostly ignored.

    2. The Pre-Fatigue Era: 5/7/21-8/23/21
    This was before the concept of "fatigue" was implemented, so horses could race an unlimited number of times without getting tired. This allowed certain stables to race an insane number of times, especially because horses could be in 3 races at once. This made the game get quite hard with all the new horses in the ecosystem, with the good ones filling up races at all levels. This was the second toughest era, but still less competitive than today.

    3. The Fatigue and Tanking Era: 8/24/21-10/3/21
    Fatigue was implemented, making horses get tired very fast. This made the game much easier, but it also caused tremendous tanking, because people were able to easily lose free races with fatigued horses, thus classing down. Still, this was when mediocre horses could still win, due to vastly decreased repeat entries in paid races. Basically, the good horses weren't wasting their races on cheap buyins, so they raced only where they were best. Any success from this era should be ignored. This is the ZED equivalent of beating poker in 2004.

    4. The Lesser Fatigue Era: 10/4/21-11/9/21
    They lightened fatigue a ton here, and also made it to where horses below 80% stamina couldn't lose class points anymore. This brought back a lot more racing by the good horses, as they could go 5-10 times before falling below 90% stamina, and they could refresh within 12 hours. This made racing somewhat tougher again.

    5. The Class Point Increase Era: 11/10/21-12/8/21
    In order to make it tougher to sandbag/tank horses to lower classes, they awarded 6/4/2 points for 1st/2nd/3rd, with -2 for 7th through 12th. They also took away the loss of points from losing in free racing, but you would gain points if you won! As a result, this caused tons of horses to end up stuck in Class 1. This again made racing easier (if you weren't stuck in Class 1), because a lot of the good horses were gone from Class 2-5. Any success during this period should be ignored, as well.

    6. The Class Realignment Era: 12/9/21-present
    On December 9, they changed the class system to be much wider in Classes 1-4, which caused some horses to drop down in class automatically. They also changed the point awards for winning and losing again, being 5/3/2 for 1st/2nd/3rd, and -2 for 8th-12th. Most importantly, they brought back free race point losses for finishing 8th-12th, which once again enabled free and easy tanking. This made everything MUCH harder, and every class (even 5) got incredibly difficult at paid racing. This remains the case today. The proliferation of tournaments also hurt paid racing, as people with mediocre horses started chasing tournament qualifications, and stopped bothering grinding paid racing (where they were losing anyway, and where the upside was low).


    So what does all this mean?

    It means that you need to pretty much only look at horse performance from mid-December 2021 through the present. In fact, it's gotten even tougher over these past 7 weeks, so the more recent racing data, the better. Note that the first few days of the present era weren't quite as tough, but rapidly got tougher.

    If most or all of the horse's races were before mid-December, then use caution, but especially ignore results from eras 1, 3, and 5 as listed above.

    Furthermore, older horses that had "odds" in their earlier races should be ignored if they were drawing high odds at that point. Remember, the game has only gotten tougher! Odds were related to the horse winning, and the flame is related to the horse showing (finishing 3rd or better). You want horses which can WIN, not just finish 3rd.

    Next I will explain other things to look for.

  7. #507
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    What else should you look for when buying a horse?

    First off, ignore free racing. For the most part, free racing results are meaningless, as there are tons of tanking horses in free racing, who are entering lenghts they're bad at specifically to lose points intentionally. Beating that competition is like beating 8-year-olds on the basketball court. Sure, you're winning, but it doesn't mean much.

    There is a toggle on hawku.com that enables paid results only. Click that, and pay attention to the new list of results.

    What are you looking for? First, see if the horse is flaming in paid races. If it's not, move on, unless it's one of those rare outlier horses which wins despite not flaming (meaning a horse with high variance, but mediocre typical performance). Note that you need a pretty big sample size to determine one of those rare non-flaming winners, so it's safe to just ignore horses which aren't flaming much at paid.

    Next, look to see WHERE and WHEN the horses are flaming. If you see no flames after 12/9/21, move on.

    If you see only flames at $2.50 races, but nothing higher (or at least nothing higher after 12/9), you again probably want to move on, unless the horse is really cheap.

    Basically you're looking for horses who flame at $5+ races since 12/9/21, and also aren't expensive. This can be tough to find, so keep checking.

    Also, beware of horses which flame a lot and don't win. They're not as valuable as they appear, because they just don't have the variance in them to ever run really fast, and they will almost never win tough races. In poker terms, think of them as the tight rocks of the racetrack. They aren't bad, but they bleed away money. Look for the "paid win rate" for each horse. If it's below 6%, you probably want to move on. Anything over 10% in recent races is a good horse, typically, as long as the sample size isn't small.

    You also may want to take some cheap shots at unraced horses, if they're underpriced. If the parents or grandparents look good, and they're inexpensive, it's worth taking the chance.

    I'll explain later how to use Danshan's stackednaks.com to research horses further, if anyone's interested.

  8. #508
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Here are some examples of horses from my stable which illustrate the points above.


    This horse had flames at $10 races in super-easy Era #3, but actually is a big donk. I bought this horse cheap, just in case it was good despite that, and I instantly regretted it. But at least I didn't waste much money: https://www.hawku.com/horse/36496

    This horse gets a ton of flames at paid races, but has low variance and can't win: https://www.hawku.com/horse/69663?paid_only=true

    This horse has high variance but very mediocre base ability. This was enough for him to win consistently, but look how he's fallen apart since December 9: https://www.hawku.com/horse/69570

    This horse has both base ability and vairance, and can still compete, albeit not at $10 races anymore: https://www.hawku.com/horse/32781?paid_only=true

    This horse was starting to win again prior to the December 9th changes, but has returned to donk status due to the increased competition: https://www.hawku.com/horse/32607?paid_only=true

    This is a horse I just bought about 10 days ago for only 0.04 ETH, who was unraced. He's doing great in the tournament qualifying free races, and should be a paid winner, as he seems to have ability and variance: https://www.hawku.com/horse/112451

  9. #509
    Hi Todd JACKDANIELS's Avatar
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    one of the zed run stables zombie racing just announced a cross promotion with footium the football manager game ive mentioned in the past

    its around 10k in prizes so might be worth you guys having a go at it figured its worth sharing

    https://zombie.racing/blog/new-tourn...-zrc-x-footium
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    BTW JACKDANIELS is the first one banned from the thread. He is accusing me of being "duped by a middle aged man who dresses like John Cena"

  10. #510
    Platinum garrett's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JACKDANIELS View Post
    one of the zed run stables zombie racing just announced a cross promotion with footium the football manager game ive mentioned in the past

    its around 10k in prizes so might be worth you guys having a go at it figured its worth sharing

    https://zombie.racing/blog/new-tourn...-zrc-x-footium

    Footium.club

    i think thats the Game and an NFT Soccer Club one, I played High School soccer and well soccer all of my life, have in DFS so when I saw this new Game here I jumped in the Discord

    https://twitter.com/Footium_Game


    Teams or Club's i see seem to be going for like .4 Eth but idk, im learning it, pretty cool tho i think

     
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      JACKDANIELS: yup great concept imo

  11. #511
    Hi Todd JACKDANIELS's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by garrett View Post

    Footium.club

    i think thats the Game and an NFT Soccer Club one, I played High School soccer and well soccer all of my life, have in DFS so when I saw this new Game here I jumped in the Discord

    https://twitter.com/Footium_Game


    Teams or Club's i see seem to be going for like .4 Eth but idk, im learning it, pretty cool tho i think
    yes thats right garret discord is defo a good place to start when you are learning about the game, still only in beta so full game isnt due until end of march time but definitely a great concept and the floor price keeps on rising

    im @spud in the discord if you got any questions give me a shout
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    BTW JACKDANIELS is the first one banned from the thread. He is accusing me of being "duped by a middle aged man who dresses like John Cena"

  12. #512
    Hi Todd JACKDANIELS's Avatar
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    have seen loads of zed run guys jumping on it over the past few months, number of owners is growing every day i reckon floor price on a club can hit 1 eth by launch time

    this i good introduction video

    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    BTW JACKDANIELS is the first one banned from the thread. He is accusing me of being "duped by a middle aged man who dresses like John Cena"

  13. #513
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    So they have these daily tournaments now. You can only qualify via free races.

    This is the first day I tried to qualify.

    Tried my 2nd newest horse, Sundea Suprema, who failed.
    Tried my newest horse, Metallic Kat, who also failed.

    Both of these were Szabos I bought over the past month.

    So I went back to the tried-and-true winners::

    Flying Stupidity easily qualified, winning all 5 races. A class obv.
    Projekt SEP easily qualified, winning 4 of the 5 and finishing 3rd with the other. A class obv.
    Ptarmigan barely qualified, taking 6 races to do it, but squeaking into the very bottom of the A class.

    Top 3 horses in each round move on.

    Quarterfinals:
    Flying: 3rd - $26 win, moves on
    SEP: 11th - Fail
    Ptarmigan: 1st - $105 win, moves on

    Semis:
    Flying: 4th - fail... just one spot away from the finals
    Ptarmigan: 3rd - $74 win, moves on to finals!

    Finals:
    ?????
    Watch here: https://3d-racing.zed.run/live/n4yo6ZA

    Ptarmigan didn't get a flame on any of these. In the semis, I was sure he was dead, as he was against crushers, including a Z1 and three Z2s. Interestingly, none of the horses who flamed in the Ptarmigan semis moved on.

    He really has no business being there, but maybe he'll pull off a miracle. The horse is high variance, so he has a shot.

  14. #514
    Mad Neg Repper 1marley1's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    So they have these daily tournaments now. You can only qualify via free races.

    This is the first day I tried to qualify.

    Tried my 2nd newest horse, Sundea Suprema, who failed.
    Tried my newest horse, Metallic Kat, who also failed.

    Both of these were Szabos I bought over the past month.

    So I went back to the tried-and-true winners::

    Flying Stupidity easily qualified, winning all 5 races. A class obv.
    Projekt SEP easily qualified, winning 4 of the 5 and finishing 3rd with the other. A class obv.
    Ptarmigan barely qualified, taking 6 races to do it, but squeaking into the very bottom of the A class.

    Top 3 horses in each round move on.

    Quarterfinals:
    Flying: 3rd - $26 win, moves on
    SEP: 11th - Fail
    Ptarmigan: 1st - $105 win, moves on

    Semis:
    Flying: 4th - fail... just one spot away from the finals
    Ptarmigan: 3rd - $74 win, moves on to finals!

    Finals:
    ?????
    Watch here: https://3d-racing.zed.run/live/n4yo6ZA

    Ptarmigan didn't get a flame on any of these. In the semis, I was sure he was dead, as he was against crushers, including a Z1 and three Z2s. Interestingly, none of the horses who flamed in the Ptarmigan semis moved on.

    He really has no business being there, but maybe he'll pull off a miracle. The horse is high variance, so he has a shot.
    Take it down!

  15. #515
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Ptarmigan got absolutely crushed. Distant 12th.

    Well, he was a big dog to win that one. I'll take the $225 or so I netted from all of this. Try again tomorrow.

     
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      1marley1: He was winning most the race! First race I’ve seen, was pretty cool.

  16. #516
    Platinum garrett's Avatar
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    Druff youre a s mart feller and so i know you get this Game and Zed

    its a big Math Model Game i now realize, and its fantastic so

    as population size grows here now some actual thigns are going to be in that some with big Maths

    You know that Maths, we all loved growing up yeah that stuff

    That's in Zed too big time and underneath of it all and so if one does NOT have a sincere interest in this all youll get crushed in Zed imo sincerely

    Other than that have a blast, I though do honestly at times feel too old for this Game

    dominated for sure, or maybe it is just im getting old actually and no good now sad

    Millennial Game (leans..)

  17. #517
    Platinum garrett's Avatar
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    Willie and PLO if you're reading I Tilt unfollowed a handful of people last week.......

    Then followed back again. Actually real people and well, pretty women starting showing up on my Twitter feed much more and I couldn't figure out why. And well, it must be Zed Run Stables lots of these women because that lolgarithm remeber Social Media things, and well. I'm now following so many Zed run stables, that has to be why i now realize so. Its annoying the Algorithm in the backround that connects all of these dots, or you but that is just how Social Media works and i know this so to go around Tilt unfollowing people to try and Trick the Algorithm i realized was dumb and now, well i have quite a few ive interacted with on Twitter so futile to even try now, so I stopped anyway. That is why i was going around all freaked out tilt unfollowing people lol, but then i stopped and realize how that was dumb and id still be in the Zed run circles anyway so yeah. I realized and so i went and started unfollowing people and stables but stopped, thats why its not you personally at all honestly.

    Also I was getting, at first I did not understand why probably, and for example, don't laugh guys but lots of very very attractive women and i have a small circle and I dont mind that. You then knows who matter most and is closest to you then. And so as silly as it may sound to others I can now, Reverse-engineer in a sense certain patterns, on say Facebook when you Randomly are getting Recommended someone and you do know them say my Therapist, like real one just moved, this person not in a million years would be in my network. Now all of a sudden on Facebook that actual new Therapist of yours say, is being recommended to you on Facebook, well the reason is they lurked your Facebook page and so now Facebook thinks you know each other probably, and should be friends. What it is an actual sign of though, is that person really has been on your Facebook page and so in some people viw or mind, stalking you. Now thats how the Algorithm functions and with recommendations but, idk maybe i read too much into it but i know for sure say, in that case that person would be or have been at some point on youre page. That would be the only reason you're actual Therapist say, and who really is too, keep in mind not making this up, would be now getting recommend to be you're friend, thats why they were stalking you or on youre page then. Thats how the Algorithm is designed to function or behind the curtain things, anyway so i tilt unfollowed things on Facebook Twitter but then i realized i was over reacting, honestly I know.

    I think honesty truthfully what it was is, maybe Zed and Zed run itself and how i now do follow many Zed Run people Stables

     
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      WillieMcFML: only read the first sentence but don't worry about it all good
    Last edited by garrett; 02-09-2022 at 05:23 AM.

  18. #518
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Fair criticism at least for now:

    https://twitter.com/SapphireBushman/status/1491304170129072130

    https://twitter.com/SapphireBushman/status/1491319026576146434


    This guy is a bit too negative, but I understand his point. The daily tournaments, which are nice (because entry is free, and you can win real $), still are skewed to the stables with the big boy horses. The "A-Shape tournament" he's talking about would be one which would reward finishing 5th/6th/7th most often, but even that would have a problem, as the playoffs (where you earn the money) would still be 1st/2nd/3rd rewards. So yeah, right now any tournament where you make the playoffs, you have a shot (maybe) in the first round, but are fucked after that.

    It was a pure miracle that Ptarmigan -- ranked 12/12 in average speed for the semifinals, finished 3rd and made the finals.

    The game really has become very dependent upon number crunching and bankroll. I did benefit from getting a bunch of genesis horses from the faildrops they had, which has allowed me to kinda sorta compete, but there's no chance I can beat the crusher horses with anyone in my stable. I've basically survived by analyzing the trends of the game, and figuring out the best spots to race, and for the most part only putting my $ at risk (or even my time at risk) when it seemed +EV.

    They have a lot of changes coming for 2022, so we will see where it goes.

  19. #519
    Platinum garrett's Avatar
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    Yeah he is a Stable I do know now and, he cares

    What I think and say, but hoenstly im aware how i found this Game much from you all and DFS twitters at the same time, but when you start factoring in real money partners like NASCAR/Stella/Atari that tells me, this is big time now. NASCAR alone and i know i grew up going to races my dads a huge fan, and so i get it. NASCAR means breadth of reach and Media, etelvision, Radio, internet all of it. And who knows how exactly that Contract is designed to work with the Media and if at all, but if done properly and i would assume the breadth of reach was why Zed and NASCAR would even see a reason to want to partner imo, and maybe not this year but next or 3 from now idk, but thats a big deal there I know that.

    Thats the deal the one, that opened my eye balls. Thinking woooh and NASCAR is a bid deal or partner and especially for this I thought and some Digital Horse Racing idea only in some minds here. This Digital Horse Racing Game maker here from Australia linked up and swiftly, with one of the Biggest American sporting Companies and Events in the world. And that is right here too, on Febuary 20 is the Daytona 500, so ill be looking for Zed run anything and im going too lol, ill be in Daytona or going to try to be there for the 500. I go often to the Daytona 500..

  20. #520
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Did the dailies again today.

    Flying Stupidity made the B Marathon tournament (less money awarded, easier competition)
    Projekt SEP made the A Marathon tournament
    Catfish made the A Sprint tournament
    Ptarmigan, despite making the Finals yesterday, failed to qualify
    Sundea Suprema again failed to qualify

    SEP finished 4th in the quarterfinals, unfortunately facing crushers. No money.
    Catfish finished 8th in the quarterfinals. No money.
    Flying squeaked into 3rd in the quarters, getting a whopping $11 and moving on.

    Flying then squeaked into 3rd again in the semis (with no flame, and with no flame horses getting 1st-3rd), and made the finals. Also got another $18 or so.

    In a few minutes, the B Marathon finals will take place. Flying is among the field:

    https://3d-racing.zed.run/live/mxonWnxY


    He has a better shot than Ptarmigan did yesterday, but isn't a favorite. Since it's the B class, he won't get as much for winning, though. He's against 2 Z1 horses, though, so it's gonna be a tough one like yesterday was.

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