Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
Yeah it's pretty crazy people bet on Esports at all, except for high profile matches in a secure setting, given the obvious vulnerabilities to hacking and insider help.
As somebody who makes a living value-betting, I'd almost say it's crazy more people don't. You can only bet significant amounts on asian bookies & exchanges, so if you bet against the soft bookies following the trends on the asian bookies, you can often latch onto fixed matches. Best case scenario, it's fixed, worst case scenario, it's still a value bet because you probably beat the closing line, thus still +EV.

I have a good example from yesterday. Blink vs Alternate attax: https://www.hltv.org/matches/2348104...ope-relegation. I placed a value bet on this match on Alternate Attax @ 3.02 odds (could've gotten 3.05 if I wasn't restricted almost everywhere). Closing odds were around 2.3. No roster changes or anything from the favorites (Blink). My team was clearly meant to be the underdog. How did the match go? My team won 2-0 in maps. Map 1: 16-7. Map 2: 16-4. An absolute stomp, the "favorites" did not stand a chance.

And this is fairly common in dota2 & csgo (the 2 esports with a shitload of low-profile tournaments) from my personal observations. Just throwing 1 match has got to be infinitely more profitable for these players than literally finishing 1st place in some of these b-tier tournaments.