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Thread: Teams loses $90K+ on a $100K MHB

  1. #1
    Cubic Zirconia
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    Teams loses $90K+ on a $100K MHB

    Two AP teams went halfies on an Ainsworth $100K MHB.

    My source told me they jumped on at $96,xxx.

    The teams played for 3 straight days.

    It finally cracked at $99,3xx.

    The total loss was over $90K.

    If the number is generally $9,7xx for the $10K Ainsworth, you would think the entry point would be 10X greater at $97,xxx. One thought experiment would be to equate the $100K jackpot to 10 x $10K jackpots.

  2. #2
    Cubic Zirconia
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    That is roughly $2 million in coin in.

    Image losing or being stuck for roughly $190K, and after hitting the $100K Major, the net loss was only $90K.

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    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Have you read this?

    https://www.knowyourslots.com/ainswo...s-do-the-math/

    The end is most illuminating:

    [UPDATE 1/21/20:] Some players doubt it’s an even distribution, based on feedback I’ve received. Michael Shackleford uses even distribution in his assumptions, and other players seem comfortable presuming it is. Gambling’s a tough business, with trust in short supply (just like at the Myths vs. Reality bucket on this site of things I’ve come across.) This may weigh which calculation you favor.

    On the other hand, AGS’s machines have a reputation for Must Hit By progressives that largely pick values from near the top end of the range, which means you can’t do math that relies on the midpoint of the current progressive number and the top end.

    I've long suspected that must-hits are a scam, and that the range is very disproportionately near the top. It's legal as long as they don't rig it to the top, but just heavily skew it that way.

    I would be very afraid to start hitting it at $97,xxx.

  4. #4
    Cubic Zirconia
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Have you read this?

    https://www.knowyourslots.com/ainswo...s-do-the-math/

    The end is most illuminating:

    [UPDATE 1/21/20:] Some players doubt it’s an even distribution, based on feedback I’ve received. Michael Shackleford uses even distribution in his assumptions, and other players seem comfortable presuming it is. Gambling’s a tough business, with trust in short supply (just like at the Myths vs. Reality bucket on this site of things I’ve come across.) This may weigh which calculation you favor.

    On the other hand, AGS’s machines have a reputation for Must Hit By progressives that largely pick values from near the top end of the range, which means you can’t do math that relies on the midpoint of the current progressive number and the top end.

    I've long suspected that must-hits are a scam, and that the range is very disproportionately near the top. It's legal as long as they don't rig it to the top, but just heavily skew it that way.

    I would be very afraid to start hitting it at $97,xxx.
    I was aware of the original article but not aware the article had been updated for Ainsworth’s MHB.

    Thnx for the heads up!

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