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Thread: *** OFFICIAL *** MLB 2021 Thread

  1. #201
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    OMG

    It’s Clayton Kershaw tomorrow. Somehow I missed this.

    Clear my schedule.


    Gotta push the over 7½ button given the bum the Reds are trotting out. Kershaw is good for some runs too. Both bullpens are rubbish.

    Wish team totals were avail overnight. Only the special kids get to hammer that line out.

    The only risk is that the Dodgers believe load management is more important than stopping the skid. That’s a legit concern.

    Take the runline -1.5 +102 ...... I hate Runlines. I’m not a Dodgers guy but I like money. Keep it a standard unit. Scale into the over. It may actually see 7 cause people will just see Kershaw’s name and equate that with low scores.

    Reds team total is a potential tasty treat.
    Lotta luckbox at the end to go over. Runline will not become a habit.

    Playing the Dodgers like a stringed instrument all season. I am now self certified as an authority again in 2021.
    Post in the sports betting thread, you are one of the few guys that made me want to start posting

     
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      jsearles22: Sanl

  2. #202
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Weird issue with Max Muncy.

    After a hot start, it appears that he has psyched himself into attempting to walk too much.

    One of Muncy's strengths was always his batting eye. It was always realllllllly hard to get him to chase bad pitches. This was true even when he sucked in his Oakland days, and that's why the Dodgers signed him.

    However, he went into a batting slump, and then he suddenly developed a fear of swinging at strikes. It was like he wanted to avoid striking out so badly, he stopped hitting. At first this "worked", and he walked like 9 times in 3 games. But now pitchers are wise to it and are just hammering him, and he looks really lost.

    Pretty amazing what the psychology of baseball can do to you sometimes.

  3. #203
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    People comparing Muncy to Barry Bonds for his obvious desire to get hit on the elbow. He’s lost. Yet Dodgers have been instructed apparently to see lots of pitches.

    The Padres have been attacking early in a fierce fashion lately.

    Fun

  4. #204
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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  5. #205
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    If the Dodgers starting pitchers can keep up pitching this well, and if the team remains healthy, it could end up being the best Dodgers team ever.

    I realize they've played a ton against the Rockies in the early going, but they really look excellent.

    Bullpen is the only questionable spot right now, especially if Jansen keeps closing.

    You weren’t the only one. The entire country had the Dodgers winning 126 after beating up on the Rockies. I was incredulous. People lost their damn minds.

    This “everything but the bullpen approach” is plain retahded. The Royals taught us when they won the World Series. Everyone but the Dodgers got hip. Yet the Dodgers annually refuse to believe it’s a critical part of the modern game. Always trying to get cute. This year trying a gamble injury prone Knebel. Price and Kelly are a tax from the Red Sox trade. Sigh.

    Maybe the wrong guy escaped to San Fran. Zaidi shoulders blame too though.


    This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.

    One blowout win can't mask Dodgers' very real issues with their bullpen and defense

    The 1927 New York Yankees never lost 10 times in a 13-game stretch. Neither did the 1975 Cincinnati Reds.

    Any talk of these Dodgers being the best team ever can be put on hold until next year or sometime after that.


    Never mind their 16-4 victory over the Milwaukee Brewers on Sunday, which was only their fourth win in 14 games. The Dodgers have major league problems.

    And if they don’t solve them in the coming months, there won’t be a second consecutive World Series championship.

    There won’t be a parade.

    Abusing a pitcher making his major league debut, the way they did Brewers starter Alec Bettinger in their series finale at American Family Field, didn’t change any of that.

    Their bullpen is still unreliable, their bench is short on weapons, their defense is shaky and their offense is reverting to the feast-or-famine approach it displayed before they acquired Mookie Betts.

    The offense will come around when Betts and Corey Seager resume hitting. But the other areas? Those could require outside help.

    Long term, the most obvious problem is in the bullpen.

    Kenley Jansen remains the team’s closer but is basically doing the job on a part-time basis. Significantly more effective with a lightened workload, Jansen hasn’t pitched on consecutive days since he imploded in Oakland in the first week of the season.

    Jansen’s limited availability handcuffs manager Dave Roberts now but will do so even more in October.

    Reclamation project Corey Knebel was the team’s best reliever until he was injured again, this time with a right lat strain that has him on the 60-day injured list. David Price’s return to the bullpen has produced mixed results and landed the former Cy Young Award winner on the 10-day IL. Fireballer Brusdar Graterol and long man Tony Gonsolin are also sidelined.

    The Dodgers camouflaged their bullpen shortcomings last year by deploying Julio Urías as both a starter and reliever in the postseason. That might not be an option this year, as Urías is shouldering considerably more responsibility in the regular season. He’s on track to make 30-plus starts.

    The starter who looks most capable of contributing as a reliever, Dustin May, was taken out of a game Saturday with what looked like a serious arm injury.

    If the issues in the bullpen were predictable, the weakness of the bench is something of a surprise, considering president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman’s ability to find value on the margins of rosters. Zach McKinstry looked like a real player before he went down with a side muscle injury and Matt Beaty has been productive through his first 30-some plate appearances, but the bench is otherwise populated with automatic outs.

    The return of a sidelined Cody Bellinger is unlikely to benefit the team’s pinch-hitting corps, as it will move Chris Taylor from the outfield to second base and .190-hitting Gavin Lux from second base to the bench, if not the team’s alternate site where reserves are working out.

    The Dodgers have also been one of the worst defensive teams in baseball, as they ranked near the bottom in several metrics. Seager has looked particularly limited at shortstop. He has never been a Gold Glove contender, but the Dodgers had made him an adequate defender in previous seasons by positioning him where opposing hitters are likely to bat the ball.

    Asked whether Seager’s range has diminished or the Dodgers aren’t stationing him in the right places, Roberts replied: “I know that the numbers, as far as runs saved and whatever, are down. I don't think that it’s a small sample size. I know Corey expects to be better. He will be. I don’t think it’s positioning. I don’t think it’s focus on getting jumps on the baseball. I think he’s a plus-defender at shortstop. He’s shown it.

    "I think there’s some things that have happened, dropping the ball, these are just kind of outliers that have happened in this perfect storm the last couple of weeks.”

    Ironically, the team’s greatest weakness during its recent slump is the most fixable.

    “Our offense has struggled for sure,” outfielder AJ Pollock said.

    The team’s 3-10 downturn coincided with slumps by its two best hitters: Betts batted .234 over that period and Seager .192.

    Betts missed close to a week last month with a back injury. He has batted .217 since then, though he smacked a home run Saturday and was robbed of a couple of hits by Brewers third baseman Pablo Reyes on Sunday.

    Asked after the game Saturday whether his back problems affected his swing, Betts replied, “Today was probably the best day so far.”

    That wasn’t a no.

    So long as Betts recovers physically and Seager rediscovers his offensive rhythm, the Dodgers will score runs again, even if they aren’t facing a rookie who hadn't pitched in an official game in two years. That, combined with the best rotation in the majors, should be enough for them to win another division title.

    Except success here is defined by a World Series championship, and realizing this larger ambition will require them to focus on the small details — their relief pitching, their pinch-hitting, their defense. They have five months to figure them out.
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 05-02-2021 at 06:35 PM.

  6. #206
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    That's a good article.

    The Dodgers have been weird with the bullpen in recent years. They have such an expensive team, and yet they staff most of the bullpen with minor leaguers and reclamation projects.

    Now, it's fine to take a chance on some of these types of players, but when they do open their wallet for the bullpen, we get weird signings like Joe Kelly, who are basically guaranteed to fail.

    Blake Treinen was a good signing. But the bullpen needs more guys like him, and fewer like Price, Nelson, and the minor leaguers du jour.

    Yes, injuries have contributed to some of their recent woes, but there's definitely some holes here.

  7. #207
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Yes, injuries have contributed to some of their recent woes, but there's definitely some holes here.
    Read the injury list for the team that just beat the Dodgers. A first place team despite injuries. The Brewers injuries (ex Yellich) mimic the Dodgers injuries in many ways.

    The Dodgers ran ultra pure injury-wise when EVERYONE got wrecked last year. Luck box stuff.

    The larger issue is the launch angle approach. Runners left on base are just ridiculous. They only have one skill set.

    That said, I’m on Dodgers tomorrow sorta large. I’ll be sorry, I’m sure.


    Can you believe you used to bet MLB unders? Seems like a hundred years ago. These scores are insane.
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 05-02-2021 at 07:00 PM.

  8. #208
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Yeah as you've probably seen, I've mostly avoided totals during this first month of the season. Way too difficult to handicap them right now, for the most part. Occasionally I'll throw one in when I really like it.

  9. #209
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    I caught the open with Buehler vs joke Kyle Hendricks in the -160’s.

    Price is exploding as we speak.

    If only Buehler could go complete game like Scherzer routinely does.... life would be simpler. He’s still an animal compared to his contemporaries.

  10. #210
    Plutonium simpdog's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Yes, injuries have contributed to some of their recent woes, but there's definitely some holes here.
    Read the injury list for the team that just beat the Dodgers. A first place team despite injuries. The Brewers injuries (ex Yellich) mimic the Dodgers injuries in many ways.

    The Dodgers ran ultra pure injury-wise when EVERYONE got wrecked last year. Luck box stuff.

    The larger issue is the launch angle approach. Runners left on base are just ridiculous. They only have one skill set.

    That said, I’m on Dodgers tomorrow sorta large. I’ll be sorry, I’m sure.


    Can you believe you used to bet MLB unders? Seems like a hundred years ago. These scores are insane.
    Last month, it was reported MLB is making minor changes to the ball intended to deaden it in 2021


  11. #211
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post

    Last month, it was reported MLB is making minor changes to the ball intended to deaden it in 2021

    So we have the Dodgers facing Kyle Hendricks who is getting hammered this year. He’s normally an ace. Why? He’s seemingly lost his control.

    One x-factor that is worth keeping an eye on is the baseball itself, which we know MLB changed for 2021 in an effort to contain exploding home run rates. Just after Spring Training Ben Lindbergh and Rob Arthur at The Ringer reported that one of the unintended consequences of changing the ball was that pitches were moving more than they had previously. On Monday, Devan Fink at FanGraphs noted that pitchers across the league are attacking the zone more with fastballs due to the new ball, although admittedly that analysis focused on flamethrowers throwing 95 mph and higher, which certainly does not include Kyle Hendricks. That said, it does seem worth exploring whether slight changes in the ball have impacted pitchers who rely on pinpoint precision, like Hendricks.
    Yet the league batting average is the lowest it’s been since 1967 if I recall correctly. Historically low.

    There are so many moving parts. The balls, the driveline pitcher magic, spin rate magic with sticky stuff the league is pretending not to know about.

    Buehler is no superhero either. He’s more fastball with respect to the above issue so he is less affected.

    Blindfold & cigarette for me.
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 05-02-2021 at 10:03 PM.

  12. #212
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    mon 5/3.

    Colo -109
    Oak -121

  13. #213
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    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post

    Read the injury list for the team that just beat the Dodgers. A first place team despite injuries. The Brewers injuries (ex Yellich) mimic the Dodgers injuries in many ways.

    The Dodgers ran ultra pure injury-wise when EVERYONE got wrecked last year. Luck box stuff.

    The larger issue is the launch angle approach. Runners left on base are just ridiculous. They only have one skill set.

    That said, I’m on Dodgers tomorrow sorta large. I’ll be sorry, I’m sure.


    Can you believe you used to bet MLB unders? Seems like a hundred years ago. These scores are insane.
    Last month, it was reported MLB is making minor changes to the ball intended to deaden it in 2021

    "...balls are now lighter and the coefficient of restitution—essentially, the bounciness of each ball—will be more consistent. In its memo, MLB said an independent lab found fly balls hit more than 375 feet lost one to two feet of distance with the changes. An analyst contacted by The Athletic estimated the changes will reduce home runs by about 5%."

    Bottom line players are trying to put the ball in the air more than ever before. Balls hit 375ft or more lose 1-2 feet yet they think this change will reduce home runs by 5%? 6776 home runs were hit in 2019. Ill take the over.

  14. #214
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    Dustin Neverwin May out for the year with Tommy John. There’s Druffs excuse about Dodgers not staying healthy. Gingergaard had been pitching well too.

  15. #215
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sheesfaced View Post
    Dustin Neverwin May out for the year with Tommy John. There’s Druffs excuse about Dodgers not staying healthy. Gingergaard had been pitching well too.
    Yeah, brutal. Just as he was starting to get going and looked like he could be the breakout 2021 pitching star.

    At the moment, the Dodgers are actually missing a viable 5th starter until Gonsolin comes back. I don't trust Wells, and the rest of their minor leaguers aren't good or aren't ready. Eventually Josiah Gray might have to be promoted, but he may take some time to get used to Major League pitching.

    If Gonsolin comes back soon and pitches well, the staff will be fine. Buehler/Bauer/Kershaw/Urias are all doing a good job so far.

    The problem isn't in the starting pitching.

     
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      Sheesfaced: Yeah losing May hurts but most other teams would still kill to have that rotation

  16. #216
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Clayton Kershaw heavy favorite?



    Kershaw has been a never ending source of glee. I do try to share in a generous fashion. I want the world to laugh with me. I do.

    My daily Tatis v Seager. Seager is no defensive gem. Never was. We are back to Tatis > Seager. I can’t believe I waffled.

    Dodgers terrible defense.


  17. #217
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    Lol Kershaw lasted an inning. But it’s understandable; he walked outside in 45 degree weather and just assumed it was October.

     
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      Sanlmar: ba dum tish

  18. #218
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Let’s be very clear on the May thing. He was destined for the bullpen. I mean the Dodgers do Dodger things but I’m pretty sure everyone with any sense agreed.

  19. #219
    All Sorts of Sports gut's Avatar
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    Random fun fact I just read:

    Fernando Tatis Jr. has now eclipsed 162 major league games -- essentially a full season -- and is the first player in MLB history to record 40-plus home runs and 30-plus stolen bases in that period.
    Honestly kinda surprised no one did that before.

     
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      Sanlmar: Wow ... heard it here first.

  20. #220
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Cubs/Dodgers game has been epic.

    Dodgers Trienen vs Rizzo with bases loaded .... Trienen was a boss.

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