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Thread: Do you think Californians will actually recall their governor?

  1. #81
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    Without being able to hide behind the pandemic and mail out millions of ballots, Gavin will actually have to inspire people to go to the polls to defend him.

    Any polls from right now can be ignored, especially if they proclaim that "Gavin is ahead" Those are likely coming directly from his camp.

    Once the recall is officially scheduled, it's on.

    People will start looking for the next best thing, and they ALL will be dumping on him. I watched it snowball last time (and was a dumb college kid who wasted their vote on Cruz Bustamonte), and think it will get even wilder this time given social media and the number of attention seekers.

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    Diamond Walter Sobchak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cerveza Fria View Post
    Gov. Gavin Newsom Recall Election Odds Suggest He May Survive

    Full article here: https://www.gamingzion.com/gambling/...election-odds/


    Cliffs
    - The recall effort will likely qualify for the ballot
    - The recall election will be scheduled for November
    - Democrats are so far united in support of Gov. Newsom
    - Walter needs to give better odds than Even Money if he expects any action
    OK, so it'll probably be within this year which simplifies things.

    I'll give 2:1, up to $2K of my money to $1K of opposing money, that he is not successfully recalled by January 1, 2022. Meaning before that date, he loses his job in a recall election and someone else is elected governor of CA. No action if he dies from Covid exposure at the French Laundry or something like that.

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  3. #83
    Diamond Walter Sobchak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by v12cl View Post
    Without being able to hide behind the pandemic and mail out millions of ballots, Gavin will actually have to inspire people to go to the polls to defend him.

    Any polls from right now can be ignored, especially if they proclaim that "Gavin is ahead" Those are likely coming directly from his camp.

    Once the recall is officially scheduled, it's on.

    People will start looking for the next best thing, and they ALL will be dumping on him. I watched it snowball last time (and was a dumb college kid who wasted their vote on Cruz Bustamonte), and think it will get even wilder this time given social media and the number of attention seekers.
    If you're looking for action, see my post above this one.

    SOBCHAK SECURITY 213-799-7798

    PRESIDENT JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR., THE GREAT AND POWERFUL

  4. #84
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    Quote Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by v12cl View Post
    Without being able to hide behind the pandemic and mail out millions of ballots, Gavin will actually have to inspire people to go to the polls to defend him.

    Any polls from right now can be ignored, especially if they proclaim that "Gavin is ahead" Those are likely coming directly from his camp.

    Once the recall is officially scheduled, it's on.

    People will start looking for the next best thing, and they ALL will be dumping on him. I watched it snowball last time (and was a dumb college kid who wasted their vote on Cruz Bustamonte), and think it will get even wilder this time given social media and the number of attention seekers.
    If you're looking for action, see my post above this one.
    Going to need 5-1 to bet against the stupidity of California voters.

  5. #85
    Flashlight Master desertrunner's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by v12cl View Post
    Without being able to hide behind the pandemic and mail out millions of ballots, Gavin will actually have to inspire people to go to the polls to defend him.
    COVID19 pissed off alot of Cali people and they got a hard axe to grind against Gavin. Lots of business owners who got the screw.

  6. #86
    Diamond Walter Sobchak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by v12cl View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak View Post

    If you're looking for action, see my post above this one.
    Going to need 5-1 to bet against the stupidity of California voters.
    I think you mean the intelligence of California voters to see through this bullshit.

    Anyway, my offer is open to you or anyone.

    SOBCHAK SECURITY 213-799-7798

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    Diamond TheXFactor's Avatar
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    Caitlyn Jenner is 'actively exploring' a run for governor of California and is talking with political consultants

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbi...alifornia.html

    Druff's wet dream of Caitlyn Jenner becoming Governor of California is about to come true.



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    Gold Cerveza Fria's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Cerveza Fria View Post
    Gov. Gavin Newsom Recall Election Odds Suggest He May Survive

    Full article here: https://www.gamingzion.com/gambling/...election-odds/


    Cliffs
    - The recall effort will likely qualify for the ballot
    - The recall election will be scheduled for November
    - Democrats are so far united in support of Gov. Newsom
    - Walter needs to give better odds than Even Money if he expects any action
    OK, so it'll probably be within this year which simplifies things.

    I'll give 2:1, up to $2K of my money to $1K of opposing money, that he is not successfully recalled by January 1, 2022. Meaning before that date, he loses his job in a recall election and someone else is elected governor of CA. No action if he dies from Covid exposure at the French Laundry or something like that.

    I think the odds should be around 8-1. Recalls generally don't work. And even though Newsom is hurting Californians with this do as I say, not as I do lockdowns, there are enough stupid lemmings in California that will do whatever CNN tells them to do. Also, I don 't know what viable alternatives are running for Governor. That being said, I'm sure someone will want to donate to Walter's degeneracy fund.

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    Flashlight Master desertrunner's Avatar
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    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by desertrunner View Post



    This worked in '02. Let's do it again!

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    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Master Scalir wants to run, but can't afford the $3900 filing fee. He said he'd have put up $1000, but $3900 is just too much for a gimmick candidate. I have to agree, which is presumably why it's $3900.

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    Diamond Walter Sobchak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by desertrunner View Post



    This worked in '02. Let's do it again!
    Not happening and I will bet on it.

     
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      JoeD: Agreed, not going to happen, he will survive

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    Quote Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post




    This worked in '02. Let's do it again!
    Not happening and I will bet on it.

    Wait a minute....Walter, you're not going to vote for Caitlyn Jenner? I thought you liberals were pushing for Trans rights. And yes, this is a Devilish post.

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    Diamond Walter Sobchak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cerveza Fria View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak View Post

    Not happening and I will bet on it.

    Wait a minute....Walter, you're not going to vote for Caitlyn Jenner? I thought you liberals were pushing for Trans rights. And yes, this is a Devilish post.
    For one thing I don't live in California so I won't be voting in this election.

    I'd vote for who I prefer to do the job, not based on any particular identity politics. Jenner has always been a right winger and cutting off his/her/whatever dick doesn't make me more likely to vote for them.

    Also I'm guessing this is for free publicity for some media venture or other, not a serious run.

    Newsom is going to win anyway.

    SOBCHAK SECURITY 213-799-7798

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cerveza Fria View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak View Post

    OK, so it'll probably be within this year which simplifies things.

    I'll give 2:1, up to $2K of my money to $1K of opposing money, that he is not successfully recalled by January 1, 2022. Meaning before that date, he loses his job in a recall election and someone else is elected governor of CA. No action if he dies from Covid exposure at the French Laundry or something like that.

    I think the odds should be around 8-1. Recalls generally don't work. And even though Newsom is hurting Californians with this do as I say, not as I do lockdowns, there are enough stupid lemmings in California that will do whatever CNN tells them to do. Also, I don 't know what viable alternatives are running for Governor. That being said, I'm sure someone will want to donate to Walter's degeneracy fund.
    2/1 or at most 3/1 is a fair line

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.new...7124%3Famp%3D1
    It's hilarious that we as a society think everyone can be a dr, a lawyer, an engineer. Some people are just fucking stupid. Why can't we just accept that?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Cerveza Fria View Post


    Wait a minute....Walter, you're not going to vote for Caitlyn Jenner? I thought you liberals were pushing for Trans rights. And yes, this is a Devilish post.

    Also I'm guessing this is for free publicity for some media venture or other, not a serious run.

    Newsom is going to win anyway.

    This is spot on. I see some reality show with behind the campaign scenes etc.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jsearles22 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Cerveza Fria View Post


    I think the odds should be around 8-1. Recalls generally don't work. And even though Newsom is hurting Californians with this do as I say, not as I do lockdowns, there are enough stupid lemmings in California that will do whatever CNN tells them to do. Also, I don 't know what viable alternatives are running for Governor. That being said, I'm sure someone will want to donate to Walter's degeneracy fund.
    2/1 or at most 3/1 is a fair line

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.new...7124%3Famp%3D1

    I disagree. But, if you feel Walter's line is fair, then take him up on it and donate to his Degeneracy/Entertainment Fund. I'm sure he'll take your action. Personally, I think the recall will fail. The media will run cover for him. The LA times already started. CNN will claim the recall is somehow racist, even though Newsome is White.

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    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Yeah the media's interference in this will be a big factor.

    In the '02 recall, they mainly backed off and let it play out. Things have changed a lot since then.

    There's going to be a lot of nonsense along the lines of, "Gavin tried to keep us safe, don't blame him", and a lot of excuse-making for his "one-time lapse of judgment" with the French Laundry situation.

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    You can dislike Newsom's policies (I dont like most) but must still respect his game.

    Like when Newsom publicly complimented Trump to the media (and privately no doubt complimented Trump's tan and hair) to get a change in Trump's decision re: Federal aid for CA wildfires - 2 hours later and a few public compliments, presto Federal Aid approved and on its way no problem.

    https://news.yahoo.com/gov-gavin-new...195630557.html


    Or recently Newsom being wise enough to apparently make a switch to the Florida Covid accounting method - like magic, the virus in California is gone and we are free to reopen.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/new...cid=uxbndlbing

    The French Laundry dining was a definite mistake. But I give Newsom an A- for his political game, which should be good enough to save his current job for him.

  20. #100
    Diamond Walter Sobchak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cerveza Fria View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by jsearles22 View Post

    I disagree. But, if you feel Walter's line is fair, then take him up on it and donate to his Degeneracy/Entertainment Fund. I'm sure he'll take your action. Personally, I think the recall will fail. The media will run cover for him. The LA times already started. CNN will claim the recall is somehow racist, even though Newsome is White.
    I think jsearles would take my side of that bet not the other side. 2/1 remains open to anyone who wants the "he will lose" side.

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