Without being able to hide behind the pandemic and mail out millions of ballots, Gavin will actually have to inspire people to go to the polls to defend him.
Any polls from right now can be ignored, especially if they proclaim that "Gavin is ahead" Those are likely coming directly from his camp.
Once the recall is officially scheduled, it's on.
People will start looking for the next best thing, and they ALL will be dumping on him. I watched it snowball last time (and was a dumb college kid who wasted their vote on Cruz Bustamonte), and think it will get even wilder this time given social media and the number of attention seekers.