Tropical Storm Isaac <------------

[Rollo Tomasi]

gonna be interesting since it's on track to hit New Orleans will they call Obama a racist like they called Bush a racist for Hurricane Katrina

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...track#contents

[Hockey Guy]

This just in from the weather network:

 

[RobbieBensonFan]

Isaac is still a strong tropical storm as of this morning. It was supposed to be a Hurricane at this point, but the dry air to the southwest affected its development, but that has subsided so some time today, we should have a Hurricane as an eye wall is forming and pressures are dropping.

The NHC has a strong Cat 1 passing right directly over New Orleans Wednesday. Basically the storm intensity is the average of the models along with some old fashioned guess work from the folks at the NHC. So a Cat 3 is not out of the realm, although pretty unlikely. A Cat 2 is more reasonable, but money would have to be on a strong Cat 1 at this point. Keep in mind though intensity is still tough to predict. Hurricane Charley in 2004 was supposed to hit Tampa a 125 mph. In the span of two hours it went from 125 to a strong Cat 4 145mph and promptly took a right turn right around Sanibel Island and made landfall at Punta Gorda. Everyone was like WTF, and the NHC Director went on air saying they have long stated intensity is very tough to predict.

The big issue for New Orleans right now is the speed of Isaac. It will dramatically slow down and creep though New Orleans, which is a problem for Mississippi and Alabama coast lines as they will take a bulk of the ocean surge. Then there is rainwater flooding for the whole region which can cause a lot of damage. And to have a full day of Hurricane force winds in your face is not very fun either as long and extended power outages will happen and loss of productivity for the region for potentially weeks. This has a chance to be very expensive, some have it at $27B but that was a Cat 2/3 going over New Orleans, a Cat 1 should be a lot less.

As a side note, Issac will hit 7 years ago to the DAY, that Katrina hit New Orleans. Are you kidding me? The biggest difference is when Katrina his the Gulf, it was basically was like gasoline as water tempratures were much hotter and there was no dry air. That simply did not exist this time which is why Isaac has struggled at this point.

[RobbieBensonFan]

What a bizarre storm. Three hours ago Isaac looked so good on radar the NHC said it would be a Cat 2 at land fall. In the last hour, dry air has just ripped off the NE quadrant. It is such a massive storm, if it ever wrapped circular it would take up most of the Gulf.

It still could be a massive weather event, but I think talk rivaling Katrina was over-hyped for quite a while. This storm, while massive in size a eye never did form. Without that, you have a wind event, a rain event, etc... But you just don't have the power to level towns.

This still could be very expensive for the region and could end up in the top 10 in billions in damage, and the rain will be historic since it is going to creep along New Orleans at a snail's pace. But it appears it was simply too big to get its act together. It's kind of like that fat kid in high school who is huge as a Freshman and the coaches get all excited they have a starting left tackle and by the time he is a senior he is 400 lbs and useless.

Here is a satellite loop as of 9pm. It could change by 9am tomorrow, but as of right now it is a far cry from a strengthing Cat 2 at land.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floa...-avn-long.html

[RobbieBensonFan]

Well, after watching and reading the experts I followed for years rip Isaac apart the last two hours as falling apart, the Hurricane Hunters just flew through and saw a huge burst to the North that suggests intensification.

11pm advisory will be telling. Whatever happens, this fucker is massive. Maybe it will go through a Cat 2

[Rollo Tomasi]

It's kind of like that fat kid in high school who is huge as a Freshman and the coaches get all excited they have a starting left tackle and by the time he is a senior he is 400 lbs and useless.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floa...-avn-long.html

they are saying it will hit N.O. as a CAT2

[RobbieBensonFan]

Well, the NHC downgraded land impacted Isaac to Cat 1 again in the span of 90 minutes. Obviously they either got bad data or just err'd on the side of caution, but to flip between categories in 3 hours is almost unprecedented. To their defense they have an impossible job: You say it's weaker and people get killed or say it's stronger and people spend money to evacuate for no reason. But to flip in 3 hours? Come on.

Isaac will likely hit as a massive rain event to New Orleans, which will test the pumps in downtown, and also indrectly test the levees but only as overwash as the surge will likely only topple the lowest levels by only a foot or so, which is not a big deal. The levee failure in Katrina was less to do about the storm, as it hit 50 miles to the east, rather the fact the levees were ignored for 50 years. After $15B later in engineering, they will not be tested with Isaac.

The problem right now is rain water flooding and the sustained winds of 45-90 MPH for over a day maybe longer.

There will be a shit load of damage because the storm is so huge. There will be massive power outages and water damage. It's going to be expensive though, unless it completely collapses, but I think this ends into the top 10 tropical systems from $$$, as it is hitting a major city. It's really never been about the size of the storm, but the width and the population centers.

Ironically the pressure is akin to a strong Cat 2 with Isaac. Fucking thing is so big it just could not get it's shit together.

[DRK Star]

Ship RobbieBensonfan the title: Al Roker's Cracker Cousin

[RobbieBensonFan]

On a side note, the only true Hurricane Insurance totals that have ever been been paid (or at least I have read), have been Hurricane Andrew (early 90s), and Hurricane Charley (mid 2000s). Both were PURE wind events, in that they had NO storm surge of consequence, and little rain. So there was no flooding. Insurance companies paid those Hurricane claims without incedent. Always exceptions, but Hurricane Insurance is focused on WIND, not water.

The problem comes with rain flooding, and inner costal storm surge. What happens if you end up inside a Hurricane with a house full of water with no wind damage on your roof? You get a Fuck You letter and end up in court if you want your money or call your flood insurance comapny and if you do not have it (flood) generally you are fucked. Even if you win you lose if you get an exception because you lose 40% in the lawyer.

Get flood insurance if you live in an area that could even be indirectly impacted by a hurricane.

[Rollo Tomasi]

On a side note, the only true Hurricane Insurance totals that have ever been been paid (or at least I have read), have been Hurricane Andrew (early 90s), and Hurricane Charley (mid 2000s). Both were PURE wind events, in that they had NO storm surge of consequence, and little rain. So there was no flooding. Insurance companies paid those Hurricane claims without incedent. Always exceptions, but Hurricane Insurance is focused on WIND, not water.

The problem comes with rain flooding, and inner costal storm surge. What happens if you end up inside a Hurricane with a house full of water with no wind damage on your roof? You get a Fuck You letter and end up in court if you want your money or call your flood insurance comapny and if you do not have it (flood) generally you are fucked. Even if you win you lose if you get an exception because you lose 40% in the lawyer.

Get flood insurance if you live in an area that could even be indirectly impacted by a hurricane.

technically i live in a flood zone because everything west of I-95 in south florida was the everglades until the Army Corp of Engineers built canals and filled it in with dirt, single family homes should have flood insurance

[RobbieBensonFan]

WOW, Isaac is organizing and despite flight level winds being 100 MPH, the NHC is using the technical response that surface level winds are like 72 mph across the storm, so the NHC refused to upgrade Isaac based upon pure scientific concerns (Hurricane is 74 mph). The blogs are going nuts saying the south of the storm winds are 80 mph plus. They probably are but there has to be a techincal weather wonk reason why the NHC won't upgrade Isaac.

The balance is technical science versus public reaction as when people hear "Hurricane" they take that seriously versus Tropical Storm which people blow off most of the time. Especially in an area pulverised by Katrina.

Anyway, storm is going to really create massive flooding and it's still 150 miles away from New Orleans moving @ 10 mph. It's fifteen hours away, and it might move slower which makes it a massive rain event.

I get what the NHC is doing, and I am sure from a pure scientific perspective they are correct. But if Isaac bombs out later today at blows up and people get caught, there will be yet another house cleaning at the NHC. There is science and politcal reality.

Personally I simply think this storm got too big too fast and its impossible to get back on track. We'll see.

[RobbieBensonFan]

Upgraded to Hurricane. 2 hours before the formal update at 2pm and 1 hour after the last update. My guess is someone called the NHC from the White House. It's immaterial as far as strength, political annoucement. The NHC Director is dancing around in his annoucement. You can tell he does not want to to this.

[RobbieBensonFan]

80 MPH and getting stronger. Storm is going to last for days, not hours, as it is crawling. 8 MPH and might slow further. The worst part of the storm is going to go directly over New Orleans, and it will last likely two full days.

The Corp of Enigineers spent $14B after Katrina on the levees, so they should hold just fine. But it's going to be a mess for sure.

The area just to the east of New Orleans is going to get nailed as well as Mississippi.

[JUSTIFIEDhomicide]

I feel bad for all those shlubs in Gulfport that probably just finished rebuilding their homes only to have them torn down on the anniversary of Katrina

[shortbuspoker]

I feel bad for all those shlubs in Gulfport that probably just finished rebuilding their homes only to have them torn down on the anniversary of Katrina

They've also closed down the casinos today while the Gulf Coast Poker series is running at the Beau

[RobbieBensonFan]

storm is slowing and starting to bomb out huge. If those that want the link to the blog I reference I will give PM.

[shortbuspoker]

The worst part of the storm is going to go directly over New Orleans, and it will last likely two full days.

[JUSTIFIEDhomicide]

storm is slowing and starting to bomb out huge. If those that want the link to the blog I reference I will give PM.

I gotta give you props bottomset. I am enjoying your coverage a lot more than CNN

[RobbieBensonFan]

LOL. It is starting! Bloggers from LA/MS are saying they are starting to smell "oil and chemical
agents" in the wind! LOL

[RobbieBensonFan]

Pressure report says 971 in dropzone. 4 points lower.