Tropical Storm Isaac <------------

[GAMBLE-BOT]

Just so you people know, this is VERY serious fucking business. Isaac is going to be a monster if it makes its way in the central GOM. The trend is West. This was the National Weather Service Advisory when Katrina hit the Gulf in 2005:

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. PERSONS...PETS...ANDLIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK. POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

Look at the hurricane Ike advisories in 2007 for Galveston prior to landfall. The phrase "certain death" was in it. Ike was a cat 2 hurricane with light winds, but the large size brought deadly flooding. This storm compare with Ike more than Katrina. They were wrong though, practically everyone on the bolivar peninsula that stayed, died. There were 2 survivors. I guess death wasn't certain. But they had a hell of a ride. One guy ended up travelling 17 miles over land (with the storm surge) by travelling with houses, boats, cars and trees and managing to not get fatally impaled by the drift. The other guy luckboxed it in a kayak.

[RobbieBensonFan]

As predicted, the NHC keeps shifting Isaac west; remember this was originally slated as an east cost event. The big question is what will happen to Isaac after it interacts with the mountains of Hispanola and southern Cuba. The range of mountains is 10,000 feet and 7,000 feet.

If Isaac can make it past this obstacle and goes further west, it will hit the GOM Loop Current and deepen in size and strength rapidly.

New Orleans is in play.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphi...9/AL0912W5.gif

[Muck Ficon]

As predicted, the NHC keeps shifting Isaac west; remember this was originally slated as an east cost event. The big question is what will happen to Isaac after it interacts with the mountains of Hispanola and southern Cuba. The range of mountains is 10,000 feet and 7,000 feet.

If Isaac can make it past this obstacle and goes further west, it will hit the GOM Loop Current and deepen in size and strength rapidly.

New Orleans is in play.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphi...9/AL0912W5.gif

That's if the upper level dynamics allow it. Just because the GOM has warm water doesn't mean it will strengthen. Any sort of wind shear or dry air will keep it in check. I agree though, the Gulf looks pretty prime for rapid development. This is a huge storm, which actually is a disadvantage for development. It needs to tighten up. It has been sucking in dry air which has kept it from intensifying.

[JUSTIFIEDhomicide]

http://www.cnn.com/2012/08/23/us/tro...t=hp_inthenews

(CNN) -- As Tropical Storm Isaac swirls in the Caribbean -- becoming more powerful mile by mile -- it threatens to unleash disaster once again on vulnerable Haiti by Friday night.

The possibility of stinging rain and tree-bending wind descending on the hundreds of thousands of Haitians living in camps has aid groups in the country on high alert.

By the time Isaac strikes Haiti, it is forecast to be at hurricane strength, bringing destructive rain and wind to an area still recovering from a devastating 2010 earthquake.

As much of 12 inches of rain is forecast for some parts of the country, posing danger to the more than 400,000 Haitians in the camps.
Tampa RNC Storm Scenario

"These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides," the National Hurricane Center in Miami said.

Isaac also poses a risk to the Republican National Convention in Florida. The storm could hit anywhere in Florida, Gov. Rick Scott said Thursday, and it will be up to convention organizers to decide the fate of the event.

But before it nears Florida, Isaac is forecast to run over Hispaniola, the island that's home to Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

As of 11 a.m. ET, Isaac was about 200 miles (320 kilometers) south-southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, the center said.

It was moving to the west near 15 mph with maximum sustained winds near 40 mph.

The center of the storm is forecast to pass to the south of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday, and approach the Dominican Republic on Thursday night and into Friday, the center said.

While the storm is yet to reach hurricane strength, it has already delivered shock waves to the Caribbean, postponing a hearing for September 11 terrorist attack suspects at the U.S. naval base in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.

"Restrengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Isaac could still become a hurricane on Friday before it reaches Hispaniola," according to forecasters.

Aid organizations were keeping an eye on Haiti. According to the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees, 421,000 people are in camps in and around Port-au-Prince, the capital.

Isaac could be the first significant storm to hit Haiti since the devastating earthquake. Tropical Storm Emily threatened in 2011, but it weakened before hitting western Haiti.

The forecast map shows Isaac crossing the nation as a tropical storm with winds under 74 mph.

"We watch those storms every single time they come near because Haiti is so vulnerable," said Amy Parodi, a spokeswoman for the Christian humanitarian organization World Vision.

The agency has met with the government in previous summers to discuss contingency plans for major storms, and pre-positioned relief items are available, she said.

Isaac's path remains uncertain, but some computer models show the storm slicing its way up Florida's peninsula. Others send it farther west, into the Gulf of Mexico.

Officials are taking the threat seriously.

"Obviously, we hope Isaac doesn't hit Florida, but we must take every precaution," said Scott, the Florida governor.

While the convention will have the final say on any changes to the planned event, the organizers are working with state and local officials to ensure everyone has the same information, the governor said.

But Tampa is not the only part of Florida that could be hit, and Scott urged Floridians to be prepared.

"What everyone needs to do is to starting tracking it, watch the weather, heed any warnings, get ready, get 72 hours' worth of supplies," he said.

Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn said his city is prepared for the 50,000 people headed to his city for the Republican National Convention, which starts Monday.

"We have contingency plan after contingency plan," Buckhorn said. "We are ready in the event that it happens. I don't think it's going to be a factor in this particular convention. But we are prepared in the event that it is."

Convention spokesman Kyle Downey said the situation is being monitored "very closely."

Possibly complicating matters, the convention site -- The Tampa Bay Times Forum -- is a mandatory evacuation zone once storms reach 96 mph, a Category 2 hurricane, according to the Hillsborough County Hurricane Guide. The current forecast doesn't have Isaac reaching that status.

At the Guantanamo Bay base, officials canceled the pretrial arguments scheduled to get under way in the trial of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and four others.

Mohammed, who has been held since 2006, is facing charges related to the 9/11 attacks.

Pentagon officials said all court events at Guantanamo were canceled because of the potential hurricane. All detainees have been moved to buildings that can withstand such a storm, and those who flew in for the hearing went back home.

Officials in the Dominican Republic issued a hurricane warning along the nation's southern coast. The nation's center of emergency operations put 18 provinces under red alert as the storm advances.

Tropical storm warnings covered much of the Leeward Islands, as well as Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

Isaac could bring 4 to 8 inches of rain over the Northern Windward Islands and the Leeward Islands, the center said, and up to 6 inches of rain in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

On Hispaniola, 8 to 12 inches of rain, with maximum amounts of 20 inches, are possible, the center said.








When it rains in Haiti shit gets real. Literally thousands of people will die if they get hit with even a half of what they're predicting. When it would rain at night the people living in the camps would have to grab anything they could salvage and stand all night, holding whatever they could to save themselves from drowning. Most of the people would lose everything they had so they could hold their children throughout the night. It's pretty crazy shit.


Here's one of many videos I took in Haiti. We're on our way to work after just a night of drizzle. As you can see the road is completely flooded and the locals had to dig around the edges of the street so it wouldn't come up to their "houses"
. I had to cut it short due to the amount of file size I could send from my Iphone

[Pooh]

Another good website to track this thing. I hope I don't get hit...fuck.

http://spaghettimodels.com/

[RobbieBensonFan]

Storm is going west. It is huge and disorganized as of this moment. If it survives the mountains of Cuba it will hit the loop current with light conditions and will be a monster. The European model suggests Texas is in play now. And its a reliable model.

Details to follow as updates are provided.

[hotshott74]

I have a trip planned next weekend for Miami. Sorry, I don't follow US news much just reading some of the posts in the thread now... Is this set for this weekend or next weekend? I assume it's this weekend, hopefully it's all past by next weekend. Plus I am connecting through Houston... FML

[RobbieBensonFan]

Winds have increased to 50mph. The storm has tremendous outflow. With big storms such as Isaac it takes a while to intensify. If it goes directly over Cuba for an extended period of time, it likely will get destroyed and limp into the GOM as a depression.

If it skirts Cuba, it will hit the Loop Current with its core intact and will explode in size and strength and impact any range from AL to TX.

Keep in mind, the NHC is off a lot with their initial tracks. Remember Hurricane Rita in 2005? The NHC initially had it in very southern TX and it hit the TX/LA border three days later

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_carb_ft_loop.php

[Rollo Tomasi]

looks like it's going to just graze by me and PLOL in Ft Lauderdale and 4BET isgoing to get hit buy your supplies before it's too late 4BET

[PLOL]

Kind of excited for this one. It's been a while since we've had a good Hurricane. Going to ride this one out in Tampa.

[RobbieBensonFan]

Haiti is going to get a foot+ of rain

Haitian President Michel Martelly said he is visiting camps to encourage people to go to shelters, but acknowledged not everyone would be able get out.

"Those who are very vulnerable, they are moved out of these camps. And the ones who are remaining behind are those who are stronger to fight this situation," he said Friday.

The storm is wobbling right now. What was a crippling for Isaac, a direct path over Cuba is now shifted east. It really is guess work right now.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphi...9/AL0912W5.gif

[RobbieBensonFan]

The center of Isaac just emerged from Cuba and is now over water. It took a haircut over Hispianola and Cuba, but survived. Models are in consensus that the Keys will get a Hurricane, but where Isaac heads after that is a tossup. Panhandle and as far West as New Orleans at this point. Dr Jeff Masters has a 40% change of a Cat 2 or higher. Although a Katrina type blow up is unlikely as the Gulf is not nearly as warm as recent years. Remember, its not the tempratures on the surface that matter, its the energy and heat 10s of feet down.

Stayed tuned at Poker Fraud Alert for updates on Tropical Storm Isaac.

[DRK Star]

[4BET]

looks like it's going to just graze by me and PLOL in Ft Lauderdale and 4BET isgoing to get hit buy your supplies before it's too late 4BET

The Wife went out this morning and stocked up on stuff, I keep telling her its just a baby storm but we did get it good in 2005

[RobbieBensonFan]

Pressure has dropped. If the storms wrap around the center, Isaac will blow up. 997.

[RichardBrodiesCombover.]

Pressure has dropped. If the storms wrap around the center, Isaac will blow up. 997.

You seem to really enjoy this stuff. Seems like you would have been a great Meteorologist. Did you ever give it a thought when you were training to be a plumber?

[RobbieBensonFan]

The Hurricane Hunters are picking up a massive eye wall trying to form, 25 nautical miles in scope. If Isaac can hold it together while skirting Cuba, we could have a Cat 3 or higher. There is no wind shear in the Gulf, upper atmosphere suggests a big one, from the Panhandle to New Orleans. The farther west, the bigger the storm. Still too early to tell, but the path right now takes it right over the Straights and could go through RI. The outflow is amazing the only thing holding this back is fritcion with Cuba.

[Rollo Tomasi]

this inter acvtive map is nice


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...track#contents

[RobbieBensonFan]

The outlier models have condensed right over Lake Ponchatrain. We'll see if that sticks, but we could be looking at a monster.

It's never been about me. It's been about you.

Sit tight, calm down, and we will talk tomorrow friends:

[JUSTIFIEDhomicide]

Port Au prince