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Thread: *** Official Republican CIVIL WAR Thread ***

  1. #1181
    Diamond Walter Sobchak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sloppy Joe View Post
    SPLASH

    SOBCHAK SECURITY 213-799-7798

    PRESIDENT JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR., THE GREAT AND POWERFUL

  2. #1182
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    A political ad featuring on Trump’s loyal Republican candidates.



    Druff, when are YOU going to rally to support the leader of your party and also declare how the “rally” and actions by Trump supporters on January 6 was “peaceful”?
    _____________________________________________
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    I actually hope this [second impeachment] succeeds, because I want Trump put down politically like a sick, 14-year-old dog. ... I don't want him complicating the 2024 primary season. I just want him done.
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Were Republicans cowardly or unethical not to go along with [convicting Trump in the second impeachment Senate trial]? No. The smart move was to reject it.

  3. #1183
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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  4. #1184
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    I mean, if ranting about Trump 9 months after he left office makes you feel good, go right ahead.

    I would think that Democrats would be more concerned about an election 13 months from now, as there are a lot of very real problems right now affecting Americans every day (high gas prices, inflation, supply chain issues, poor service due to so many people not wanting to work, high car prices, never ending mask mandates). These problems will be on people's minds when they decide which party to vote for in 2022, not Trump's post-defeat behavior.

    My bigger concern is that Republicans don't step on their own dick (see the Texas abortion situation), and possibly ruin what could be a huge midterm gain.

    The proper play: Let Trump rant. He might be an issue of some sort in 2024, but in 2022 he's a non-factor. Don't do anything controversial. Sit back, take fairly mainstream positions which the public generally agrees with, and let Democrats keep acting stupid and woke. Let Biden keep reminding everyone he's a senile fool. Win big in 2022.

     
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      splitthis: Dems are horrible

  5. #1185
    100% Organic MumblesBadly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    I mean, if ranting about Trump 9 months after he left office makes you feel good, go right ahead.

    I would think that Democrats would be more concerned about an election 13 months from now, as there are a lot of very real problems right now affecting Americans every day (high gas prices, inflation, supply chain issues, poor service due to so many people not wanting to work, high car prices, never ending mask mandates). These problems will be on people's minds when they decide which party to vote for in 2022, not Trump's post-defeat behavior.

    My bigger concern is that Republicans don't step on their own dick (see the Texas abortion situation), and possibly ruin what could be a huge midterm gain.

    The proper play: Let Trump rant. He might be an issue of some sort in 2024, but in 2022 he's a non-factor. Don't do anything controversial. Sit back, take fairly mainstream positions which the public generally agrees with, and let Democrats keep acting stupid and woke. Let Biden keep reminding everyone he's a senile fool. Win big in 2022.
    It’s going to be awfully hard for the GOP to make gains in the House and Senate when Trump is telling his base to not vote for any Republican who doesn’t fully and openly support his Big Lie about the 2020 election AND work to overturn it (somehow).

    To which there’s a message the GOPers who even mildly tolerate Trump and don’t activity move to shun him from the influencing the party should hear.

    _____________________________________________
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    I actually hope this [second impeachment] succeeds, because I want Trump put down politically like a sick, 14-year-old dog. ... I don't want him complicating the 2024 primary season. I just want him done.
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Were Republicans cowardly or unethical not to go along with [convicting Trump in the second impeachment Senate trial]? No. The smart move was to reject it.

  6. #1186
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    poor service due to so many people not wanting to work

    You could use Druff’s post as a thread starter in itself. There is just so much wrong you have to start small.


    When I have time I will address this simplistic misconception. Familiarize yourself with the JOLT report.

    https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/jolts.pdf.

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    From the second page.

    The number of quits increased in August to 4.3 million (+242,000). The quits rate increased to a series high of 2.9 percent.
    4.3 million people QUIT their jobs in August. This is the biggest number since this data has been collected in 2000.

    From the first paragraph of the page I provided you. 2.9% of all employees quit in August. Think about that. That was not equally distributed across all industries of course. It was focused primarily on service and restaurants. WHY MIGHT THAT BE DRUFF?

    We can talk about the massive infusion of capital that was pumped into the system (Trump) and the opportunities that are present now that don’t include waitressing varied hours every week with no benefits or TRUCKING.

    Think about how profound this JOLTS number is and if you still hang on to the lazy American narrative I can’t help you.

    Like the housing crisis we never really suffered an appropriate economic setback considering what occurred last year. We will pay for it in the future. Kicking the can down the road. Yes, I took the PPP money. It was wrong though. Your labor problem is a symptom.
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 10-15-2021 at 06:14 PM.

  7. #1187
    Also the reverse lock on a Druff political prediction. Mercy.

    Normally I tend to ignore the stupid but I just took my CPR renewal class and the PFA patient needs resuscitation.

    I have just as much hate as everyone else here.

  8. #1188
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    I mean, if ranting about Trump 9 months after he left office makes you feel good, go right ahead.
    .
    If dismissing Trump as an influential political leader and spokesman for a vast number of Republicans makes YOU feel good go right ahead.

     
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      MumblesBadly: Druff is the King of Denial in this matter.

  9. #1189
    One thing's for sure. Mike Pence will not be on the VP ticket in 2024. Trump will probably pick a woman who he will be accused of fucking.



  10. #1190
    Gold Jayjami's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    I mean, if ranting about Trump 9 months after he left office makes you feel good, go right ahead.

    I would think that Democrats would be more concerned about an election 13 months from now, as there are a lot of very real problems right now affecting Americans every day (high gas prices, inflation, supply chain issues, poor service due to so many people not wanting to work, high car prices, never ending mask mandates). These problems will be on people's minds when they decide which party to vote for in 2022, not Trump's post-defeat behavior.

    My bigger concern is that Republicans don't step on their own dick (see the Texas abortion situation), and possibly ruin what could be a huge midterm gain.

    The proper play: Let Trump rant. He might be an issue of some sort in 2024, but in 2022 he's a non-factor. Don't do anything controversial. Sit back, take fairly mainstream positions which the public generally agrees with, and let Democrats keep acting stupid and woke. Let Biden keep reminding everyone he's a senile fool. Win big in 2022.
    So do you think Trump is into golden showers, or not?

  11. #1191
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    You could use Druff’s post as a thread starter in itself. There is just so much wrong you have to start small.


    When I have time I will address this simplistic misconception. Familiarize yourself with the JOLT report.

    https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/jolts.pdf.

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    From the second page.

    The number of quits increased in August to 4.3 million (+242,000). The quits rate increased to a series high of 2.9 percent.
    4.3 million people QUIT their jobs in August. This is the biggest number since this data has been collected in 2000.

    From the first paragraph of the page I provided you. 2.9% of all employees quit in August. Think about that. That was not equally distributed across all industries of course. It was focused primarily on service and restaurants. WHY MIGHT THAT BE DRUFF?

    We can talk about the massive infusion of capital that was pumped into the system (Trump) and the opportunities that are present now that don’t include waitressing varied hours every week with no benefits or TRUCKING.

    Think about how profound this JOLTS number is and if you still hang on to the lazy American narrative I can’t help you.

    Like the housing crisis we never really suffered an appropriate economic setback considering what occurred last year. We will pay for it in the future. Kicking the can down the road. Yes, I took the PPP money. It was wrong though. Your labor problem is a symptom.
    I've read this rant 3 times and don't understand the point.

    I don't know why so many people quit jobs in August, but I'm guessing because there were a ton of unqualified people working in August, and when you suck at your job, your job also sucks.

    Are you telling me you were getting the same customer service experience in August 2021 as you were in August 2019? I'm sure you weren't. It's like I was dropped in an alternate universe where the incidence of incompetent service employees is about 5x higher. The local In-N-Out is even having major service issues -- something I hadn't seen at any In-N-Out in my 30 years of going there.

    This isn't even our main problem. It's something which irks me a lot, but the average American is much more bothered by inflation and lack of availability. If things which used to be easy become hard, people get upset. That's the story of 2021.

    Nobody is going to care about Trump's rally rants if shelves are bare, everything is expensive, and gas is $5/gallon.

     
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      splitthis: Got that right as well as those assholes in your bank account

  12. #1192
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    You could use Druff’s post as a thread starter in itself. There is just so much wrong you have to start small.


    When I have time I will address this simplistic misconception. Familiarize yourself with the JOLT report.

    https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/jolts.pdf.

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Views: 103
Size:  908.0 KB

    From the second page.



    4.3 million people QUIT their jobs in August. This is the biggest number since this data has been collected in 2000.

    From the first paragraph of the page I provided you. 2.9% of all employees quit in August. Think about that. That was not equally distributed across all industries of course. It was focused primarily on service and restaurants. WHY MIGHT THAT BE DRUFF?

    We can talk about the massive infusion of capital that was pumped into the system (Trump) and the opportunities that are present now that don’t include waitressing varied hours every week with no benefits or TRUCKING.

    Think about how profound this JOLTS number is and if you still hang on to the lazy American narrative I can’t help you.

    Like the housing crisis we never really suffered an appropriate economic setback considering what occurred last year. We will pay for it in the future. Kicking the can down the road. Yes, I took the PPP money. It was wrong though. Your labor problem is a symptom.
    I've read this rant 3 times and don't understand the point.

    I don't know why so many people quit jobs in August, but I'm guessing because there were a ton of unqualified people working in August, and when you suck at your job, your job also sucks.

    Are you telling me you were getting the same customer service experience in August 2021 as you were in August 2019? I'm sure you weren't. It's like I was dropped in an alternate universe where the incidence of incompetent service employees is about 5x higher. The local In-N-Out is even having major service issues -- something I hadn't seen at any In-N-Out in my 30 years of going there.

    This isn't even our main problem. It's something which irks me a lot, but the average American is much more bothered by inflation and lack of availability. If things which used to be easy become hard, people get upset. That's the story of 2021.

    Nobody is going to care about Trump's rally rants if shelves are bare, everything is expensive, and gas is $5/gallon.
    August was just a continuation of a trend.

    You need to wade into “The Great Resignation”. If you live your life online or on TikTok you may be oblivious to some massive job disruption.

    Let me take a stab at the elevator pitch. The pandemic shut down the restaurant/service industry. People also worked from home. As they get called back they no longer suffer from job inertia. My job sucks but it’s familiar. The massive fiscal borrowing and the monetary money creation facilitated a lot of expansion and new job opportunities. Capital was free and as well asset price explosion allowed crazy business investment. More jobs.

    Now I have to offer more money to fill my new vacancy. Someone else quits to grab my now more lucrative job opening. So on and so on.

    The last and least desirable sector is restaurants and service.

    In our business we’ve had people quit. We know where they went. We can’t fill our openings. The work isn’t especially appealing and the money ain’t great. The people who held the position previously were there for quite a while. They were furloughed like everyone else and elected shortly after their return to get a better gig. We simply refuse to raise wages. We can’t change our cost structure right now. So the job goes begging. We are toughing it out by making the family pick up those shifts for free.

    Here’s a wage chart. Focus on the red trend lines. Wages have not risen this fast since data was first collected in 2007.

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    Let me help you with your Republican victory. Inflation. Here’s now all the fiscal stimulus worked its way through the system. The wealthy touched the money first. Asset prices (stocks, commodities, real estate) rose. Then the wealthy bought stuff and prices rose. Finally and lastly wages rise.

    You following the growing number of striking workers?

    Increased wages only help you pay for stuff that already went up.

    Inflation is going to upset the masses. They don’t understand the process started in 2020 when everyone was impressed with how well the stock market was doing or how their house price went up. That was phase one.

    Folks are gonna tell you inflation is transitory and they will be proven wrong. Sticking to our subject … wage costs never go down. Wages are sticky.

    So yeah, In and Out service sucks.. They sell hamburgers for almost free. Remember the Dollar Menu? Taco Bell sold tacos for $1. Well, labor was free. Their costs are near zero. That’s all gonna change or they will die. They too will raise wages or change how they deliver their shitty product. The previous workers got better paying jobs. A lot of them are now contract workers - a segment that didn’t really exist previously like it does today.

    Maybe the fast food industry dies..


    The second thing that will kill Democrats is the growing conflict and power rebalancing between Russia/China and the US. People are not gonna love losing our former superior position as the world leader. I’m pretty convinced there will be conflict right around the elections.

    Cheer up. War, inflation and a loss of worldwide prestige should bode well for Republican chances.
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 10-15-2021 at 10:59 PM.

  13. #1193
    I’ve been told to read this book.

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    I haven’t even looked for a summary. I think I know what I’m going to see and I’m not gonna like it. It’s the answer to your In and Out puzzle.

    AI is gonna solve most of those bullshit jobs very very soon. We don’t need to make the jobs more interesting or more rewarding. That job won’t exist

    Trump’s Universal Basic Income experiment will be revisited sooner than you think. Interesting how that happened, eh?
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 10-15-2021 at 11:01 PM.

  14. #1194
    Probably shouldn't mention that the cheapest way to fix that is immigration. One with very little friction.

    Earlier retirement and relocation are maybe more significant macro trends. I haven't looked it up too much and from US perspective.

    The pandemic did two major things or sped them. It forced people to move to areas with lower cost of living and it gave people with any assets a minute to evaluate their situation/future. If stonks always go up, why delay retirement. The variance with cost of living when you move back "home" kinda made people realize how little they need to do where it's cheap to keep the same quality of life. It helps if they're too old for "realistic" big city dreams.

    So you end up in shortages in specific industries. This is obv different in areas where there is reasonable upward mobility. Sanlmar might look this more from a perspective of his geographic region or just a certain class of people/industries. His daughter might be better positioned now than before the pandemic.

    Either way the unemployment numbers aren't bad for US. They've almost fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels. Obv unemployment numbers are just as cooked now as they were before. Maybe even worse.

    Yadda yadda and we're back to the only known method of filling "low" skilled jobs that doesn't require increasing wages significantly. Immigration. Pick your poison.

     
    Comments
      
      Sanlmar: Immigration is the traditional solution worldwide … haven’t thought of that yet
      
      splitthis: Stupid

  15. #1195
    Supply Chain

    Can you imagine the stories and anecdotes Tyde has accumulated? Unless you are in the industry you have no idea what they have been through this past year.

    But yeah, these maritime employees and truckers are just saying they are done with that bullshit job.

    This is a fascinating cut from an open letter from the international chamber of shipping.

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    I’m sorry to report the supply chain problems aren’t just transportation and we will not be “back to normal” after a fucked up Christmas.

    Biden’s chance not looking good. But Civil War

  16. #1196
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    poor service due to so many people not wanting to work
    I’m still tilted that someone so smart harbors such a simplistic notion about the labor crisis. This is how many on the right have reduced a complicated issue to a one liner, I suppose.

    Maybe I was meant to focus on In and Out.
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 10-15-2021 at 11:48 PM.

  17. #1197
    Diamond Walter Sobchak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jayjami View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    I mean, if ranting about Trump 9 months after he left office makes you feel good, go right ahead.

    I would think that Democrats would be more concerned about an election 13 months from now, as there are a lot of very real problems right now affecting Americans every day (high gas prices, inflation, supply chain issues, poor service due to so many people not wanting to work, high car prices, never ending mask mandates). These problems will be on people's minds when they decide which party to vote for in 2022, not Trump's post-defeat behavior.

    My bigger concern is that Republicans don't step on their own dick (see the Texas abortion situation), and possibly ruin what could be a huge midterm gain.

    The proper play: Let Trump rant. He might be an issue of some sort in 2024, but in 2022 he's a non-factor. Don't do anything controversial. Sit back, take fairly mainstream positions which the public generally agrees with, and let Democrats keep acting stupid and woke. Let Biden keep reminding everyone he's a senile fool. Win big in 2022.
    So do you think Trump is into golden showers, or not?
    He has one 3 times a day how so you think he got so yellow?

    SOBCHAK SECURITY 213-799-7798

    PRESIDENT JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR., THE GREAT AND POWERFUL

  18. #1198
    I don't know if anything worth mentioning has happened here...

    https://www.bls.gov/ect/compensation...-estimates.htm

    ...just the 3rd chart with the 50th percentile compensation with constant dollar. It only goes to March 2021.

    The average wage charts should catch the excessive amount of dollars pumped to keep market afloat, but they tend to touch the 90th percentile region. Using CPI partly negates inflation as always, but you can fuck around with the market a lot before it creates pressure to wages.

    From that 50th percentile chart you can only see a small dip indicating a recession, but it's been pretty flat for a long time. The cost of goods going up, wages correcting to it and employers making more is usually a wash for the middle.

  19. #1199
    100% Organic MumblesBadly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Supply Chain

    Can you imagine the stories and anecdotes Tyde has accumulated? Unless you are in the industry you have no idea what they have been through this past year.

    But yeah, these maritime employees and truckers are just saying they are done with that bullshit job.

    This is a fascinating cut from an open letter from the international chamber of shipping.

    Name:  71EDF197-1E99-412B-935D-8FE9AC9C82AE.jpeg
Views: 78
Size:  624.8 KB


    I’m sorry to report the supply chain problems aren’t just transportation and we will not be “back to normal” after a fucked up Christmas.

    Biden’s chance not looking good. But Civil War
    The truckers are victims of this mess, not a cause. Several factors specific to container port operations are causing the delays

    * port operator companies have only been willing to run non-weekend daytime shifts because other shifts require paying union workers much higher hourly wages per the port worker’s union contract. The multi-entity deal Biden announced the other day will have the port operators going 24/7 going forward, but who knows how quickly they will actually spin up those peak-labor cost hours up.

    * a shortage of available space at the port facilities to store off-loaded containers, both because shipping companies have delayed picking up empty containers, and state-side receiving customers delaying coming to get containers holding their freight because the port storage fees for the loaded containers (dunnage) is much cheaper than storage fees at off-port warehouses.

    * relative to the volume of containers that need to be moved out of the ports, there is a serious shortage of container-carrying trailers available. Power-only truckers are left waiting for many hours to be able to be assigned such units to be able to haul trailers out of the port.

    * some truckers have reported extremely slow work behavior of unioned port workers, which may be indicative of a union-organized work-slowdowns as an informal way of putting pressure on port operating companies for better terms in their next contract. But since those truckers aren’t likely to be Teamsters, they may just be exaggerating out of political spite against union workers.

    So, there are likely plenty of truckers around to move containers out of the ports if they can get to them.


     
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      Sanlmar: New word - dunnage
    _____________________________________________
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    I actually hope this [second impeachment] succeeds, because I want Trump put down politically like a sick, 14-year-old dog. ... I don't want him complicating the 2024 primary season. I just want him done.
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Were Republicans cowardly or unethical not to go along with [convicting Trump in the second impeachment Senate trial]? No. The smart move was to reject it.

  20. #1200
    PokerFraudAlert...will never censor your claims, even if they're against one of our sponsors. In addition to providing you an open forum report fraud within the poker community, we will also analyze your claims with a clear head an unbiased point of view. And, of course, the accused will always have the floor to defend themselves.-Dan Druff

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