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Thread: House/Senate Races 2020

  1. #81
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Loeffler sucks but Warnock is a Castro-loving commie.

  2. #82

  3. #83
    Did anyone watch this "Stop The Steal" rally in Georgia today?

    Sydney Powell is literally telling Georgians NOT TO VOTE IN THE RUNOFF, and to thunderous applause


     
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      rum dick: It was GREAT!
      
      big dick: best news I heard all day

  4. #84

  5. #85
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Dear Todd,

    Many of you have written to us to ask about the timeline for closing the remaining election markets, or to advise either that we take action or refrain from doing so. We want you to know we are listening to you and appreciate your input.

    As you know, as of this moment, the outcome of the presidential election in several states still remains the subject of litigation in state and federal courts, including the US Supreme Court. This has created unprecedented uncertainty well beyond the time that election markets normally settle.

    In light of these ongoing disputes, PredictIt currently anticipates that we will begin settling markets on individual state results in accordance with each marketís rules only after electors have cast their votes on Dec. 14, unless in our view there is a conclusive outcome before then.

    In the meantime, traders who wish to exit their positions should be able to sell their shares, as trading continues in most markets at this time.

    Thank you for your patience.

    PredictIt Team

  6. #86
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    FYI if you're betting on number of house seats, ignore the two Democrat House members selected by Biden for his cabinet. That won't affect things, because these members will resign after Biden takes office.

  7. #87
    I don't have a real feel for Georgia politics, but my general idea is that Dems virtually never win these Georgia runoff elections.

    Republicans seem to usually outperform their poll numbers in these kind of races.

    Both Loeffler and Purdue seem to be on the weaker side as candidates go but neither seems to be as toxic as Trump.

    On the pius side for Dems, Warnock should bring out those black voters who ordinarily just vote in presidential races. This should also help Ossoff.

    Maybe Republicans will be demoralized and not show up, but I have my doubts about that actually happening.

  8. #88
    Quote Originally Posted by JohnCommode View Post
    Maybe Republicans will be demoralized and not show up, but I have my doubts about that actually happening.
    We actually have somewhat of a case study for this already. In the November election, Republicans requested absentee ballots at a staggering low rate compared to Democrats. Historically Dems are slightly more likely to vote by mail. This year the difference was off the charts extreme. Even deep red counties commonly had a majority of absentee ballots requested by Democrats.

    The reason for this was Trumps crusade against mail-in voting. Opinion polling confirms this. He undermined the validity of this voting method, so they didn't trust it.

    He's doing the same thing now. Except this time he's undermining the system itself and accusing the secretary of state and the governor of being in on it.

    70%+ Republicans believe in their hearts that the election was stolen and rigged by the Deep State. Why would they waste their time voting if they don't think they'll be counted?

  9. #89
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rick Sanchez View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by JohnCommode View Post
    Maybe Republicans will be demoralized and not show up, but I have my doubts about that actually happening.
    We actually have somewhat of a case study for this already. In the November election, Republicans requested absentee ballots at a staggering low rate compared to Democrats. Historically Dems are slightly more likely to vote by mail. This year the difference was off the charts extreme. Even deep red counties commonly had a majority of absentee ballots requested by Democrats.

    The reason for this was Trumps crusade against mail-in voting. Opinion polling confirms this. He undermined the validity of this voting method, so they didn't trust it.

    He's doing the same thing now. Except this time he's undermining the system itself and accusing the secretary of state and the governor of being in on it.

    70%+ Republicans believe in their hearts that the election was stolen and rigged by the Deep State. Why would they waste their time voting if they don't think they'll be counted?
    The other side of this is that people won't be that motivated to vote in general, because Trump isn't on the ballot. This includes both sides.

    It comes down to who feels like voting in a special election for Senate, and it's hard to tell what the turnout is going to be for that. Which side in Georgia has more people who care about the makeup of the Senate, given that Georgia is going to tip it either way?

    The anti-Trump sentiment which motivated voters to show up on the Democrat side in record numbers won't be there this time. I think that benefits the GOP, even though they will also lose people due to Trump-loving MAGA people also having little enthusiasm for all of this.

    On a much smaller scale, look at the CA-25 House race. The identical two candidates ran earlier this year in a special election, to replace polyamorous freak Katie Hill who resigned. Hill was a Democrat, and the Republican in the special election won against Hill's attempted Democratic replacement by 12 points! However, those two faced off again in November, and it was a virtual tie, with the Republican barely squeaking out a super-narrow victory.

    In that situation, Republicans definitely turned out for the special election much better than Democrats did.

    However, I realize that was little-discussed House race in a weird gerrymandered southern California district, whereas this is a Senate rate with huge implications.

  10. #90
    Puts His Dick in the Mashed Potatoes
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    Druff want to bet $500 that a Democrat wins at least one Georgia senate seat? Given how fired up the GOP is about Biden stealing the presidential election the republican party faithful will turn out to vote in droves and it should be easy money for you.

  11. #91
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    "polyamorous freak Katie Hill"

    Druff, you're such a prude.

  12. #92
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rum dick View Post
    "polyamorous freak Katie Hill"

    Druff, you're such a prude.
    Are you a polyamorous freak?

  13. #93
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rum dick View Post
    Druff want to bet $500 that a Democrat wins at least one Georgia senate seat? Given how fired up the GOP is about Biden stealing the presidential election the republican party faithful will turn out to vote in droves and it should be easy money for you.
    No, that would be an idiotic bet on my part. 1-1 is the most likely result.

  14. #94
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    The other side of this is that people won't be that motivated to vote in general, because Trump isn't on the ballot. This includes both sides.
    This is just one data point, but a recent poll has 87% of black women intending to vote in the runoff. Even accounting for polling error, that's a staggering number.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...eyre-likely-to

    There was some similar opinion polling done back in July by the same pollster and a few others, which had 55% of black RVs intending to vote:

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-election-day/

  15. #95
    According to the polls, this is a close race and according to Nate Silver the polls in Georgia are off by many points.

    If the Democrats aren't leading by five or six percent in the polls by election day expect a Republican victory.



  16. #96
    Stop voting for Mitch McConnell.

    Voting for any Republican Senator is a vote for that bastard.



  17. #97
    Plutonium big dick's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheXFactor View Post
    According to the polls, this is a close race and according to Nate Silver the polls in Georgia are off by many points.

    If the Democrats aren't leading by five or six percent in the polls by election day expect a Republican victory.


    getting better

    even Trafalgar Group has the dems ahead

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...s/?cid=rrpromo

  18. #98
    Plutonium big dick's Avatar
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    Go to the two minute mark

    this guy is just what this country needs


  19. #99
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Well, I got back into the game.

    Bet Ossoff NO 1-2% margin of victory.

    This is gonna be close. I got it for about 32c, a little for cheaper. So basically I'm getting better than +200, figured it was worth an $850 gamble.

    Had $879 sitting on the site I didn't cash out yet, so I figured :whynot

  20. #100
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Well, that didn't work out.

    Wish I hadn't looked at Predictit this morning, which I hadn't opened in a few days.


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