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Thread: House/Senate Races 2020

  1. #41
    What the Fuck has happened to you?
    Where do you get your news?
    Let me guess, from the same people that told you Seth Rich was a thing & to take hydroxychloroquine.

    How many times do you need to be lied to, before you stop believing someone?
    That is a question for all Trump losers, but no one has lost more respect IMO, in the Trump ERA, on PFA, than this guy.

    Are you in QAnon, now or what?

    Quote Originally Posted by abrown83 View Post
    Just a quick sidebar conversation because everyone has been wrapped up in the Presidential race.

    It is possible now that Democrats lose the House.

    So could be Biden, with two Republican chambers.

    Even if it isnít, it will be like 218/217 Democrats.
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  2. #42
    Quote Originally Posted by JimmyG_415 View Post
    What the Fuck has happened to you?
    Where do you get your news?
    Let me guess, from the same people that told you Seth Rich was a thing & to take hydroxychloroquine.

    How many times do you need to be lied to, before you stop believing someone?
    That is a question for all Trump losers, but no one has lost more respect IMO, in the Trump ERA, on PFA, than this guy.

    Are you in QAnon, now or what?

    Quote Originally Posted by abrown83 View Post
    Just a quick sidebar conversation because everyone has been wrapped up in the Presidential race.

    It is possible now that Democrats lose the House.

    So could be Biden, with two Republican chambers.

    Even if it isnít, it will be like 218/217 Democrats.
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  3. #43
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JimmyG_415 View Post
    What the Fuck has happened to you?
    Where do you get your news?
    Let me guess, from the same people that told you Seth Rich was a thing & to take hydroxychloroquine.

    How many times do you need to be lied to, before you stop believing someone?
    That is a question for all Trump losers, but no one has lost more respect IMO, in the Trump ERA, on PFA, than this guy.

    Are you in QAnon, now or what?

    Quote Originally Posted by abrown83 View Post
    Just a quick sidebar conversation because everyone has been wrapped up in the Presidential race.

    It is possible now that Democrats lose the House.

    So could be Biden, with two Republican chambers.

    Even if it isn’t, it will be like 218/217 Democrats.
    Jimmy, abrown83 just took a quick look at the House results, which at the time suggested that 218-217 Republicans was possible. I agreed that while not likely, it was possible, and that 217 for Republicans was most likely their best-case ceiling.

    Now that it's played out some and some races flipped with the late counting, the final tally should end up somewhere between 225-210 and 220-215. So yes, Democrats will hold the House, but this has been an incredibly disappointing election for the Dems aside from Biden winning.

    Note that three "safe D" districts are flipping!!

    It's often hard to figure out where some of these races are going, especially with late vote counting, because you need to understand the voter makeup (and counting procedures) in each of these districts, in order to know who will come back and who won't. I've been following this closely, and even I'll admit I'm guessing somewhat, especially with the non-California races. (At least in California, I understand the areas and the voters well.)

    In short, nothing abrown83 said at the time was unreasonable, and there's a possibility he will only be 3 seats off with his prediction.

  4. #44
    is this a thing or is there too much to go on in GA (think that's the one that still in question)...

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  5. #45
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    D House, R Senate is very likely.

    I don't see the Dems winning both seats there, which is what they'd need in order to get the Senate.

  6. #46
    Quote Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis View Post
    is this a thing or is there too much to go on in GA (think that's the one that still in question)...

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    Obviously the top one is most likely, but itís probably more profitable to buy no or yes on the individual races as they approach as opposed to locking up your money until Jan 5th.

     
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  7. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by BCR View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis View Post
    is this a thing or is there too much to go on in GA (think that's the one that still in question)...

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    Obviously the top one is most likely, but itís probably more profitable to buy no or yes on the individual races as they approach as opposed to locking up your money until Jan 5th.
    ---

    Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 09/09/2020.

    On January 21, 2021, the balance of power in the U.S. Congress shall reflect the characterization in the question, per the definitions listed below.

    "Republican Senate" means 51 or more sitting U.S. Senators were elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with, or have publicly stated an intention to caucus with the Republican Party.

    "Democratic Senate" means 51 or more sitting U.S. Senators were elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with, or have publicly stated an intention to caucus with the Democratic Party.

    "Republican House" means 218 or more sitting U.S. Representatives were elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with, or have publicly stated an intention to caucus with the Republican Party.

    "Democratic House" means 218 or more sitting U.S. Representatives were elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with, or have publicly stated an intention to caucus with the Democratic Party.

    For purposes of this market, the Vice President, in his role as ex officio President of the U.S. Senate, will be counted as a sitting U.S. senator.

    PredictItís decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictItís sole discretion and shall be final.

    This Market may close prior to the end date, if/when PredictIt determines the above criteria have been met.

    End Date: 01/21/2021 12:00 AM (ET)

    ---

    So they can actually lock it up until January 21!

    Of course, you can buy it and then bail out before that at 99c or whatever.

     
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  8. #48
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by BCR View Post

    Obviously the top one is most likely, but it’s probably more profitable to buy no or yes on the individual races as they approach as opposed to locking up your money until Jan 5th.
    ---

    Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 09/09/2020.

    On January 21, 2021, the balance of power in the U.S. Congress shall reflect the characterization in the question, per the definitions listed below.

    "Republican Senate" means 51 or more sitting U.S. Senators were elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with, or have publicly stated an intention to caucus with the Republican Party.

    "Democratic Senate" means 51 or more sitting U.S. Senators were elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with, or have publicly stated an intention to caucus with the Democratic Party.

    "Republican House" means 218 or more sitting U.S. Representatives were elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with, or have publicly stated an intention to caucus with the Republican Party.

    "Democratic House" means 218 or more sitting U.S. Representatives were elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with, or have publicly stated an intention to caucus with the Democratic Party.

    For purposes of this market, the Vice President, in his role as ex officio President of the U.S. Senate, will be counted as a sitting U.S. senator.

    PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.

    This Market may close prior to the end date, if/when PredictIt determines the above criteria have been met.

    End Date: 01/21/2021 12:00 AM (ET)

    ---

    So they can actually lock it up until January 21!

    Of course, you can buy it and then bail out before that at 99c or whatever.
    Yeah that sucks. Hopefully it settles earlier for you. I would just guess post-inauguration, after Dems drop a billion into two senate races, there will be most likely unfounded optimism on dem side that will make it more profitable to fade if you were going to go with top pick at .77.

    If he was inclined to bet the low probability options, locking up your money until 1/21 at .07 or whatever is worth it, but I don’t think he’s leaning that way. Locking up money for a 23% return minus fees for months when you can get better price a week before most likely seems the better option.

  9. #49
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Honestly the only reason to bet that market is:

    1) Being willing to hold your money there for 2.5 months
    -or-
    2) Expecting to bail out when you turn a profit

    I do like that about Predictit, where you can always bail out if you can find buyers. For example, I had some positions on Republicans taking the House that I got super cheap "just in case". Now that I see it's not happening, I'm bailing out of it early because suckers still want to buy it at 5c-6c.

  10. #50
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    I'm watching the 222-225 House Seat position closely, as well. Right now it's around 81c. If it gets much higher, I will bail out. I'm considering doing it anyway. It can still easily lose (which I actually hope, because then my big one wins).

    Otherwise I'll wait until the Illinois-4 results update on Tuesday, and quickly scamper over there to act if the Republican gains big (which would put the odds much higher of 221 seats for Dems).

  11. #51
    What is the common thought behind the Georgia senate seats?

    Admittedly am out of the loop here.

    Obv know that there was strong liberal momentum there in turning it blue against DJT, but how much of that momentum is expected to continue?

    Can't imagine the amount of $ that both parties are going to funnel there.
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  12. #52
    Quote Originally Posted by Sloppy Joe View Post
    What is the common thought behind the Georgia senate seats?

    Admittedly am out of the loop here.

    Obv know that there was strong liberal momentum there in turning it blue against DJT, but how much of that momentum is expected to continue?

    Can't imagine the amount of $ that both parties are going to funnel there.
    A post-election January electorate in Georgia is more likely to favor Republicans (imo). But I think Trump throwing a giant tantrum about losing may weaken this a tad, and I assume Dems will get a big cash advantage. I'm still holding some Republican Georgia senate shares, but I'm not maxing.
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  13. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    D House, R Senate is very likely.

    I don't see the Dems winning both seats there, which is what they'd need in order to get the Senate.
    I agree but we're sure as hell going to try. It will come down to turnout which is always weird in runoffs. Ground game will be key.

    I can't imagine how much will be spent in Georgia in the next 8 weeks over these two seats. Could be half a billion.
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  14. #54
    Quote Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    D House, R Senate is very likely.

    I don't see the Dems winning both seats there, which is what they'd need in order to get the Senate.
    I agree but we're sure as hell going to try. It will come down to turnout which is always weird in runoffs. Ground game will be key.

    I can't imagine how much will be spent in Georgia in the next 8 weeks over these two seats. Could be half a billion.

    It will be nauseating beyond belief and easily the biggest front ever made by both sides. Would be interesting to know afterwards just how much money came in and more interestingly, from where/who.

    Would also be a good time to own a media company here. Imagine their windfall.
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  15. #55
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    Updates:

    218-221 Democrat seats bet back alive... though I might take the recently-increased $ and run.

    First, the bad news (for me, at least): IL-14 looks very likely to stay blue.

    The best news today is that "called" NJ-07 (for the Dems) has been uncalled:

    https://twitter.com/#!/x/status/1326661947031433218


    This has excited Predictit bettors, and rocketed the 218-221 price back to 35c. However, I still have my doubts that Kean can make up the deficit.

    IA-2 still is a 40-vote difference, but all of the counties have certified their totals, soooo... that might be a done deal very shortly (meaning the R candidate wins).

    UT-4 starting to look better and better for the R, but still lots of votes left to count.

    CA-25 wasn't updated today, but will be updated tomorrow for Ventura County (friendly to the R), and then Friday for Los Angeles County (unknown who that will benefit). It's a virtual tie, so I might bail out tomorrow after those nice-looking Ventura numbers come in.

    CA-21 is still holding with the R candidate 4k-ish ahead, but again, the same thing happened last time, and he ended up losing.

    Anyway, if NJ-7 flips, that gives Republicans one more loss available (not counting IL-14, which I assume will lose), which will hold 218-221.

  16. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    D House, R Senate is very likely.

    I don't see the Dems winning both seats there, which is what they'd need in order to get the Senate.
    Am I right to assume that a 1-1 split is very unlikely since every voter will vote for both?

    Haven't read much analysis of the two races yet, I see they're both around 70-30 in favor of Republicans on predictit though.

    Also just going to throw out the fairy tale ending possibility for the democrats: Trumps investigations uncover some sort of fraud or mistake that results in Democrats picking up a seat that they thought was already lost.

  17. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by duped_samaritan View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    D House, R Senate is very likely.

    I don't see the Dems winning both seats there, which is what they'd need in order to get the Senate.
    Am I right to assume that a 1-1 split is very unlikely since every voter will vote for both?

    Haven't read much analysis of the two races yet, I see they're both around 70-30 in favor of Republicans on predictit though.

    Also just going to throw out the fairy tale ending possibility for the democrats: Trumps investigations uncover some sort of fraud or mistake that results in Democrats picking up a seat that they thought was already lost.
    No, Loeffler isn't as popular as Perdue, partially because Loeffler had an ethics scandal earlier this year: https://www.rollcall.com/2020/05/07/...stock-scandal/

    Loeffler also had a weird election where another Republican siphoned votes from her. Now that the guy is gone, it's unclear if most of those votes will move to her. Now, there were a ton of candidates in this one, and collectively a lot of Democratic votes were siphoned from her opponent Warnock. Collectively Democrats got over 48.4% of the vote, where as Republicans got 49.3%. However, the rest were mostly "independent" and "libertarian" candidates, and I'm guessing more of those break right.

    Perdue's race had a libertarian take 2.3% of the votes, which cost him the 50% mark. Most of those votes probably go to him, since this particular libertarian appeals more to conservatives than liberals.

    Both Republicans will have the advantage that there won't be the motivation to vote out Trump this time, so a lot of Democrats who showed up for the general election will stay home for the special election.

    I'm predicting 2-0 for Republicans. I can't see them going 0-2. 1-1 is possible, if Loeffler's scandal (and the heavy focus upon it via negative campaigning) pushes her into the loss column.

  18. #58
    With Patrice OíNeal stumping for them, itís a dem landslide coming

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  19. #59
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by duped_samaritan View Post

    Am I right to assume that a 1-1 split is very unlikely since every voter will vote for both?

    Haven't read much analysis of the two races yet, I see they're both around 70-30 in favor of Republicans on predictit though.

    Also just going to throw out the fairy tale ending possibility for the democrats: Trumps investigations uncover some sort of fraud or mistake that results in Democrats picking up a seat that they thought was already lost.
    No, Loeffler isn't as popular as Perdue, partially because Loeffler had an ethics scandal earlier this year: https://www.rollcall.com/2020/05/07/...stock-scandal/

    Loeffler also had a weird election where another Republican siphoned votes from her. Now that the guy is gone, it's unclear if most of those votes will move to her. Now, there were a ton of candidates in this one, and collectively a lot of Democratic votes were siphoned from her opponent Warnock. Collectively Democrats got over 48.4% of the vote, where as Republicans got 49.3%. However, the rest were mostly "independent" and "libertarian" candidates, and I'm guessing more of those break right.

    Perdue's race had a libertarian take 2.3% of the votes, which cost him the 50% mark. Most of those votes probably go to him, since this particular libertarian appeals more to conservatives than liberals.

    Both Republicans will have the advantage that there won't be the motivation to vote out Trump this time, so a lot of Democrats who showed up for the general election will stay home for the special election.

    I'm predicting 2-0 for Republicans. I can't see them going 0-2. 1-1 is possible, if Loeffler's scandal (and the heavy focus upon it via negative campaigning) pushes her into the loss column.
    I wrote a post disagreeing with this but didn’t realize that the Dems had that many candidates. I just saw the two republicans up top and assumed it would coalesce around her.

    0-2 is most likely, but after a winter of death and no financial relief in sight, if the election can be focused on stimulus, and Trump voters are discouraged, I think the Dems are drawing slim but alive. Republicans own special elections and mid terms, so I’d never bet against them, but there is an angle to be played to drive turnout.

  20. #60
    Diamond Walter Sobchak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by duped_samaritan View Post

    Am I right to assume that a 1-1 split is very unlikely since every voter will vote for both?

    Haven't read much analysis of the two races yet, I see they're both around 70-30 in favor of Republicans on predictit though.

    Also just going to throw out the fairy tale ending possibility for the democrats: Trumps investigations uncover some sort of fraud or mistake that results in Democrats picking up a seat that they thought was already lost.
    No, Loeffler isn't as popular as Perdue, partially because Loeffler had an ethics scandal earlier this year: https://www.rollcall.com/2020/05/07/...stock-scandal/

    Loeffler also had a weird election where another Republican siphoned votes from her. Now that the guy is gone, it's unclear if most of those votes will move to her. Now, there were a ton of candidates in this one, and collectively a lot of Democratic votes were siphoned from her opponent Warnock. Collectively Democrats got over 48.4% of the vote, where as Republicans got 49.3%. However, the rest were mostly "independent" and "libertarian" candidates, and I'm guessing more of those break right.

    Perdue's race had a libertarian take 2.3% of the votes, which cost him the 50% mark. Most of those votes probably go to him, since this particular libertarian appeals more to conservatives than liberals.

    Both Republicans will have the advantage that there won't be the motivation to vote out Trump this time, so a lot of Democrats who showed up for the general election will stay home for the special election.

    I'm predicting 2-0 for Republicans. I can't see them going 0-2. 1-1 is possible, if Loeffler's scandal (and the heavy focus upon it via negative campaigning) pushes her into the loss column.
    You're forgetting that Trump is not at the top of the ticket to motivate Republican voters to the polls. Without Trump on the ticket the Republicans wouldn't have done as well in the House and Senate because fewer of his cultists would have voted.

    You're also forgetting that turnout in special elections is unpredictable and it is probably the better ground game that will win. The Democrats are still registering new voters (which they have a month to do) and once again they are preaching voting early either in person or by mail.

    This one will take a few days to count just like the presidential race did. Don't expect to know before the weekend after election day. Expect an early tally for the Republicans and a longer count of mail-ins for the Democrats. But like November 3, it will be clean as a whistle.

    The two Republican candidates should be ashamed of themselves for calling for the (Republican) secretary of state's resignation. He did a great job in November and he'll do a great job in January. He is constrained by state law and by the resources available to him, and he did as well as anyone could have done. They did it because Trump told them to. Cowards.

    I still think 1-1 is the best outcome the Democrats can reasonably hope for, but who knows.
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